Massive draw MW at level 1
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
Game is all fish, no one knows what they're doing. Mixed between tight passive and loose passive.
CO - M
I don’t think co ever has a weak hand (like AJ or KQ no fd) because he knows he has to beat the all in and we will never bluff a dry side pot on the turn on a very wet board.
I don’t think co ever has a weak hand (like AJ or KQ no fd) because he knows he has to beat the all in and we will never bluff a dry side pot on the turn on a very wet board.
(assuming our draw doesn't currently have a massive equity advantage, which I think is fair to assume given the action).
Why though? We've been told he sucks at poker and is a level 1 thinker.
I actually attempted a shove versus call EV calc with the exact hands that we and CO have (just to see how they compare in a worse-ish case scenario), with some assumptions (didn't include rake, assumed SB had 0% equity cuz didn't want to deal with sidepots which I think is fair given his hand, etc.).
I somehow computed an EV of -$29 for shoving versus an EV of $27 for flatting / CO folds turn on non-pairing club versus an EV of $17 for flatting / money always goes in on turn...
... but I don't think that can possibly be right as I would expect the EV of shoving to be equivalent to flatting / money always goes in on turn.
So I've obviously done some EV math mistake. Anyone else care to take a shot?
ETA: Ok, caught one mistake and I'm a little closer but still doesn't look correct, with flatting / CO folds now at -$12 and flatting / money goes in on turn at -$22. Although possible I'm doing some rounding a bit too soon and that's the discrepancy.
GcluelessmathsnoobG
ETA#2: Rounding better I get EV of shove -$29.54 versus flat/rest-in-on-any-turn -$23.17 (WTF, why am I off by ~$6 here, this can't be right?) versus flat/he-folds-bad-turns -$12.79. Obviously too early in the morning for me to math. Still, I'm convinced against his overall range that this is most definitely not a shove versus fold spot, and that flatting is technically better than shoving (ex1: he boats up on turn and tarpy checks and lets us not go broke the time when we don't hit on the river, ex2: is a guy who sucks at poker really going to fold that straight enough on the turn when we could be bluffing since the sidepot is bigger than the main pot).
GcluelessearlyinthemorningmathingnoobG
To do the math correctly I think you need to get the EV on the turn, for each of the 44 possible turn cards, and then take the average.
It does make sense that we gain money when he folds club turns with a set, because sets have enough EV to call if they see our hand. Was thinking it'd be more likely he folds turns with 98 or even something weird like J9.
Here's my math against Villain's exact hand of red sevens. Again, I'm ignoring rake and ignoring SB's main pot equity (which I think is fair).
EV of Shove (-$29.54):
.334 * $757 = $252.84
.666 * -$424 = -$282.38
EV of Flat and rest of money always goes in on turn (I somehow compute -$23.17 and yet i'd expect the same as EV of Shove, no?):
Tc 1/45 * 1/44 * $757 = $0.38
1/45 * 43/44 * -$424 = -$9.21
Q (no club) 3/45 * 34/44 * $757 = $39.00
3/45 * 10/44 * -$424 = -$6.42
non-pairing club 8/45 * 34/44 * $757 = $103.99
8/45 * 10/44 * -$424 = -$17.13
pairing whiff 6/45 * -$424 = -$56.53
non-pairing whiff 27/45 * 11/44 * $757 = $113.55
27/45 * 33/44 * -$424 = $190.80
EV of Flat and CO folds on non-pairing club (-$12.70):
Same as above except replace:
non-pairing club 8/45 * $547 = $97.24
Thoughts? I'm guessing I either got profit/loss wrong and/or perhaps cards available. Still scratching my head on this one.
GcluelessmathnoobG
ETA#3: Technically I should break things down further on a Qc turn when he calls since his Tc is no longer an out, but I doubt that will affect the EV much (and if anything move it in a positive direction).
GcluelessEVcalcnoobG
Banana told us that. Consider the source.
(Sorry, Banana. I love you, but your reads are...not always all that reliable.)
There's always the possibility some rando is punting, or making some sort of "Hail Mary" play for the pot.
But usually, at low stakes, V has 2P, a set, a straight, or QTcc/Q9cc/T9cc/T8cc/86cc. Even throwing AJ and KQ in there, his overall range is going to be strong given the action.
It is interesting to consider the implications if Banana's read is accurate, though. If V is truly terrible, and doing this with everything listed above, I'd guestimate we're actually a slight favorite.
