Massive draw MW at level 1
1/3 NLHE 8 handed
Game is all fish, no one knows what they're doing. Mixed between tight passive and loose passive.
CO - M
I don’t think co ever has a weak hand (like AJ or KQ no fd) because he knows he has to beat the all in and we will never bluff a dry side pot on the turn on a very wet board.
I don’t think co ever has a weak hand (like AJ or KQ no fd) because he knows he has to beat the all in and we will never bluff a dry side pot on the turn on a very wet board.
(assuming our draw doesn't currently have a massive equity advantage, which I think is fair to assume given the action).
Why though? We've been told he sucks at poker and is a level 1 thinker.
I actually attempted a shove versus call EV calc with the exact hands that we and CO have (just to see how they compare in a worse-ish case scenario), with some assumptions (didn't include rake, assumed SB had 0% equity cuz didn't want to deal with sidepots which I think is fair given his hand, etc.).
I somehow computed an EV of -$29 for shoving versus an EV of $27 for flatting / CO folds turn on non-pairing club versus an EV of $17 for flatting / money always goes in on turn...
... but I don't think that can possibly be right as I would expect the EV of shoving to be equivalent to flatting / money always goes in on turn.
So I've obviously done some EV math mistake. Anyone else care to take a shot?
GcluelessmathsnoobG
