USA Goes to War Against Iran
Time for a dedicated thread to the war.
How long will it last and what will be the probable outcome?
Do you think maybe they shouldn't have assassinated Khamenei in that case?
Really weird post from you. It wasn't like he died from natural causes and then hardliners took over. They're in a war and the straight of Hormuz is their leverage.
Is it your opinion that if Khamenei was left alive and they were attacked that the straight wouldn't be closed?
It’s possible. Closing the Strait doesn’t really offer Iran much of a military advantage, if anything, it creates more problems. You can see that in how the IRGC handled it: they ended up losing a lot of equipment and personnel in clashes with the US and Israel, without much to show for it.
That’s not to say Khamenei never would’ve gone there. But I think if he had, giving something like a 72-hour warning would’ve put serious pressure on Trump and the broader international community to de-escalate.
It’s possible. Closing the Strait doesn’t really offer Iran much of a military advantage, if anything, it creates more problems. You can see that in how the IRGC handled it: they ended up losing a lot of equipment and personnel in clashes with the US and Israel, without much to show for it.That’s not to say Khamenei never would’ve gone there. But I think if he had, giving somet
War isn't just about military tactics and blowing stuff up.
Victor,Yes or no, has the president of Iran historically been subordinate to the supreme leader?Yes or no, has the Iranian government claimed that the supreme leader is still alive and still in charge? Yes or no, is the person who the Iranian government claims is the supreme leader widely believed to a hardliner?My only point was that it was weird for you to argue that hardlin
well given these assumptions and conclusions, it would be impossible for non-hardliner to be in charge.
My only point was that it was weird for you to argue that hardliners are not in charge
I am not really arguing that. I just dont think it should be taken for granted that the people running the show are somehow more hardline than a few months ago. there are many indications they are not. I am making this point after reading the massive social media struggle session from Iranians who are upset about this ceasefire and the negotiations.
these people very well could be wrong and hysterical and crazy. it also could be that Iran is so degraded that they have choice but to negotiate. but theres a lot of people that are likening the current leaders to Delcy Rodriguez.
What did they win? Iran will continue to be a hopeless, depressed, economically degraded client state of CCP China that no one else wants to invest in, and whose best and brightest will continue to flee to better places. Same as Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen. Even children of regime officials cant wait to take the first plane ticket out (often to live in the Great Satan), and the
Not having to take orders from the likes of Trump and Bibi is a win
well given these assumptions and conclusions, it would be impossible for non-hardliner to be in charge.I am not really arguing that. I just dont think it should be taken for granted that the people running the show are somehow more hardline than a few months ago. there are many indications they are not. I am making this point after reading the massive social media struggle s
When it comes to real time war reporting, I take nothing for granted.
If sanctions are lifted and GDP is higher then that translates to the people being better off. The bombed hospitals and universities can be rebuilt.
We are a long way from this happening.
And even that being said, one of the key features of the Islamic republic is they the regime controls large swathes of the economy and hordes much of the wealth for themselves. Iran is a wealthy control whose people are very poor because the ruling class hordes all the wealth, spending much of it on proxy militias in the Arab world (along with indulging in excessive debauchery in the western world)
IF the regime benefits from the new reality (still very much a hypothetical) and shares none of the benefits with the people, your thesis will prove to be incorrect. Just as it has been for the last 40 years the regime has hoarded all wealth.
Like Afghanistan and North Korea?
Like is said, if that is winning, then count me out.
I do really wonder if Americans who cheerlead when other societies destroy themselves to “win” against America, while they themselves enjoy every comfort of being part of America, feel any shame over this.
Especially when the actual people who live inder such “winning” conditions are often desperate to escape and come to the IS.
I mean if luckbox actually leaves the US for Columbia I will give him respect for putting his money where his mouth mouth is. The rest of you guys seem to be giant hypocrites with no self awareness.
When Americans are fleeing to Iran to escape America, and not 999:1 ratio the other way, then I will say Iran has started winning.
Until then I call it a very pyrrhic “victory”.
Some people seem to assume that all wars have winners. It is entirely possible for wars to be lose-lose propositions.
I mean if luckbox actually leaves the US for Columbia I will give him respect for putting his money where his mouth mouth is. The rest of you guys seem to be giant hypocrites with no self awareness.
I'm going pretty soon like next month. I have a Colombian lawyer working on a business visa but I might end up in El Salvador instead as it might be easier there
We are a long way from this happening. And even that being said, one of the key features of the Islamic republic is they the regime controls large swathes of the economy and hordes much of the wealth for themselves. Iran is a wealthy control whose people are very poor because the ruling class hordes all the wealth, spending much of it on proxy militias in the Arab world (a
i bet a ton of Americans think that about the USA
It’s possible. Closing the Strait doesn’t really offer Iran much of a military advantage, if anything, it creates more problems. You can see that in how the IRGC handled it: they ended up losing a lot of equipment and personnel in clashes with the US and Israel, without much to show for it.That’s not to say Khamenei never would’ve gone there. But I think if he had, giving somet
Closing the strait doesn’t even directly pressure Israel and the US that much. The GCC and China are the ones with the most to lose from the strait being closed.
Obviously this is a problem with America.
But Iran it is way worse. The regime actively works to make the pie as small as possible, while hordeing much more of the wealth to themselves. And this is all intentional to ensure they keep their grip on power.
The IRGC make trump and his inner circle look like Lenin in comparison.
Luckbox concept the regime is going to take that $2M/ship and invest it back in the people so everyone benefits is completely laughable.
Closing the strait doesn’t even directly pressure Israel and the US that much. The GCC and China are the ones with the most to lose from the strait being closed.
What about the indirect pressure from the GCC countries who have pledged trillions in investments who now have reevaluate their reliance on the U.S. as a security guarantor?
Obviously this is a problem with America.
But Iran it is way worse. The regime actively works to make the pie as small as possible, while hordeing much more of the wealth to themselves.
So is Trump.
Probably because the GCC countries are deep in Trumps pockets and they stand to lose a ton from it being closed. Hence why I said “direct”.
It’s obviously adding pressure to the situation. I just find it funny that so many western liberals are suddenly so concerned with the straits status when in reality it barely affects them.
I just find it funny that so many western liberals are suddenly so concerned with the straits status when in reality it barely affects them.
So the price of oil barely affects people? Seems like it makes gas prices go higher, which in turn makes everything go higher because it costs money to transport chit.
Anyway, the real funny part is people like you suddenly claim you care about Iranian citizens and want to bomb them in order to save them. The gaslighting you fell for is just lmao.
Doyle is right. Life becoming more expensive for Western Liberals doesn't directly affect Western Liberals.
I haven’t given up on regime change or the possibility of the Iranian people revolting. The IRGC has essentially sidelined the president and the clerics. But if Khamenei is incapacitated, which seems likely, the president and the clerics will have constitutional authority. In that scenario, Pezeshkian could direct the Artesh to take back control of the institutions the IRGC has seized.
The IRGC has essentially sidelined the president and the clerics.
this is not the sense that I get from Iranian social media.
So the price of oil barely affects people? Seems like it makes gas prices go higher, which in turn makes everything go higher because it costs money to transport chit.
Anyway, the real funny part is people like you suddenly claim you care about Iranian citizens and want to bomb them in order to save them. The gaslighting you fell for is just lmao.
Sharing a news story about the Iranian government killing its own citizens or whatever you’re referring to is not me claiming to care about the Iranian people. You’re worse than Victor when it comes to putting words in people’s mouths.
