Trip kings facing big river overbet

Ehhhhh...

He understood the need to turn his hand into a bluff, so I guess he deserves some credit for that. Maybe his turn bet folds out our TT/99, and maybe occasionally we make a nitty fold with QQ. Hard to think we're ever folding QQ on the river if we check-call turn, and now his AQ beats TT/99, and blocks AA.

So he's trying to rep KJ or KQ, to make us fold AA/AK. But we could have KK, KQ, and KJ. So it's kinda hard to credit him with straights or flushes in this line, and he doesn't even have the naked Ah. Maybe we fold some slivers of KT or K9 that somehow get to the river this way.

I think I'd like his line better if he just checked it back, or maybe bet really small, to get hero called by AhJx, or maybe get us off a chop.

Interesting line by you. Hypothetically, if you bet smaller on the flop and barreled turn, and then see this river, would you have check-called a big bet, or check-folded, or bet again, and for what size?

If we think V is capable of bluffing turn and river when we check twice, does that mean we also think he's going to bluff big if we just check river? Or does he check back more if we barrel turn? What does he do with AQ if we check a river brick?

Not many opponents are going to start a bluff on the turn with just one over and a GSSD when the board is paired and flushing. If he's not over-bluffing river when we bet turn, then you may have found the max value line by checking to him twice.

If that was your read, well played. If not, bad check on turn.

Seems strange to overbet bluff when he has showdown value.

He doesn't have that much showdown value, if all our worse 1P hands fold turn. Once we check-call turn, he should know AQ doesn't beat enough of our range.

The strange part is that he bet at all. Hard to think JX or worse calls. Hero's line looks more like a flush draw that got there, or trapping boat than trips.

Why would all one pair hands (technically 2 pair) x/f the turn on a paired board?

If you raised pre with JX, TT, 99, or a worse PP, and you c-bet the KJ5rb flop, for a somewhat chunky size, and got called, would you x/c the $200 turn bet when the top card pairs and adds a BDFD?

Most of those hands are drawing super slim. No straight draw. No flush draw. They basically have two outs to third boat.

Half those TT and 99 combos have a heart, blocking V's flush draw semi-bluffs. Calling with TT seems particularly bad, blocking the OESDs of QT. 99 loses to TT that V might bet for some protection when we check, and isn't doing great against V's range of TT+ and good draws.

To check-call with any 1P that doesn't beat AQ on the river, we'd have to think V is calling flop and stabbing the turn with a lot of air. The only 1P hands I can think of that makes sense would be Ah5h that runs into the nut flush, or maybe AhJx that is checking turn with devious intentions for flushing rivers.

I can't check GTOwiz for a few hours, but ... no.

AQo is a mixed call/raise from MP open, for GTO sizes and 100bb ... but that's not close enough to reality when it got to him.

I wouldn't be shocked if all of the 16 combos. of AQ that made it to the flop call a 33% pot bet HU ... but you bet a lot more, so he's supposed to fold more.

Turn I would guess he's supposed to have at least the Qh to bluff, and I don't love the size. He maybe can bluff for smaller sizes targeting TT/99, or even JT. But then has to be careful on rivers when you don't fold turn.

River looks like spew. Yes, he blocks KQ/QQ/AT ... but he's targeting AA/AK and he blocks those too, as well as being way too few combos. to try bluffing. Also not having a heart is again bad. Also, again, bluffing all 12 combos. of AQ pure has to be too much even ignoring how good of a hand it is.

I can kind of see his thought process, and give him props. for turning AKKQQ into a bluff ... but still 5/10 at most.

I think you played it fine, if you intentionally thought he'd bluff it off way too much (which seems very likely). Would heavily downgrade your read though, and call "too much" vs. his bets.

idc what he says after the hand theres no way anyone reasonable gets to the river in live poker like this and thinks i am going to fold out AK. doubly so vs a guy that doesn't know you dont fold aq to one bet on this board lol (flop is mix between raise and call and seems to be winning around 3.5 straddles - this is a colossal error to fold). im not even exxagerating, people that win are never running weird multi street floats with overbets to try to make recs fold out trips on kj5r while representing i have no idea? fractional combos of a gutter that hit? or bottom pair that ran out a bdfd? or a slowplayed 2p+. i think he just doesn't think in ranges and once he floated the flop and you checked he decided he had a bluffing combo and buried himself

I am not an expert at this sort of thing like some posters, and my analysis may not be as sophisticated. I understand there are boats, flushes, and a straight possible. However, he has AQ, so can only be trying to fold off AA or trips. There may not be that many hands AQ beats, but it isn't likely trips would x/c the turn, so not that many hands that beat AQ that might fold.

If he had nothing, there would be some additional hands that beat him, and which would probably fold to the overbet or any large bet. He could have other bluffs on the turn which did not improve on the river and had no showdown value. He could bluff those, but an overbet would not be the best sizing for them.

Trying to get someone to fold trips or AA is not easy psychologically. It seems like fancy play syndrome. The overbet did not make a lot of sense for value, representing a boat. He just seems aggro, clicking buttons.

I think it was a good bluff and a good follow through after his turn bet on a scary card. You just happened to check/call the turn, and I don't think he ever expected you to have AK. You happened to be at the top of your range for calling river. Would have you called w/ AA?

If we're trying to give V credit for some sort of logical thought process, we might need to look at OP's actions on each street, and try to assign some sort of range.

If I were V, hero's turn check-call and river check would make me think hero is giving up and planning to check-fold, or hero is trapping, hoping to induce. Either way, not much value in betting.

Maybe hero has some slivers of hands that are better than AQ that will fold because of the scary run-out, but in my mind it would be asking a lot. It would also seem to be asking a lot to think we're going to get called by AJ.

I wouldn't have expected hero to check KX on the turn, and QQ improved to a boat, so V is mostly just trying to fold out AA, which he partially blocks, and he doesn't even have the Ah, blocking the nut flush from our range.

Seems like the river should just be a pure give-up.

Checking 9max UTG+2 open and BTN call 100bb deep:

AQo on BTN is 50/50 mix call/raise.

Flop:
UTG2 bets 33% pot ~93% of the time, 99 is the main hand checking. But noticeable slivers of QQ/JJ/TT/AJo/A9s
BTN 50/50 mixes call/raise with AQo ... depending on suits and AsQc leans more towards call.

Turn:
UTG2 checks about 45% of the time, but bets AK over 90% of the time.
BTN 50/50 mixes bet/check with AQo, but using b50% or b33% (about half each).
UTG2 mostly raises AK, but ~25% calls (of the 5-10% of AKo that didn't bet).

River:
UTG2 basically checks everything but some QQ/JJ and tiny amount of KJ
BTN pure checks AQ, betting KQ/QQ/AhTh a tiny amount of NF/6h5h. What's left of KdJd/KcJc and the tiny amount of 6s5s/5s4s that get here.

If BTN bets 85% pot, UTG2 raises a lot with Ah and calls the rest (but not from above only 1-2.5% of combos. make it here).
If BTN bets 150% pot, UTG2 mostly calls AK (but this is very low freq. bet size, and may be inaccurate)
If BTN shoves for 394% pot, UTG folds AK ~75% (but, again, AK combos. that make it here are small).

Obviously you are diverging on the flop bet size by a lot, and then again by turn check.

Reasonable divergences. Usually, better to cbet larger for value live. Turn x/c is very nonstandard, but probably good versus aggro villain.

Villain's thought process on river was probably as follows: "this is a great scare card. He probably doesn't have a boat or flush. If I bet really big, I can get him to fold."

You know hero spoke to villain and villain explained why he did what he did right?

Yeah, but that is after he saw hero's hand. There is no way he could put him on trips check/calling the turn.