Trip kings facing big river overbet
5/5 NL, $10 utg straddle
H's table image is tight, probably comes off as a solid regular.
V is early 20's college kid, seems like an experienced knowledgeable player.
$1700 effective stacks
Two EP limpers.
H in LJ raises to $60 with AdKd.
V on B calls.
Heads up to the flop.
($153) Ks Jh 5d
H $110
V calls
($370) Kh
H checks
V $200
H calls
($770) Qh
H checks
V $1000
H?
From villain’s eyes you opened and continuation bet like everyone does with everything, and then checked the turn. Why?
He certainly doesn’t expect you to have trips with this action, so he takes over the betting. When you just call a small turn bet, you look capped. So basically you have manipulated the situation to have no idea where you stand.
If villain hit the flush, he’s probably not overbetting with a pair on board
Probably fold as played, we only beat a bluff. Not sure what bluffs villain has.
Flop cbet size feels bad, we never bluffing with this sizing. Either go smaller or way bigger or check.
Turn don't mind the check/call, since villain doesn't have much range that can call turn barrel.
River isn't betting naked kx like this imho. Bluff or value
All the semi bluffs got there. There are probably no random floats when flop cbet was this big.
I guess if villain is crazy he can turn TQ into a bluff.
Interesting spot.
Grunch:
PRE - seems standard. Wondering if the open size is a bit large.
FLOP - not sure about the c-bet, or the sizing. Seems like a spot we want to either check or bet huge, like pot or more.
TURN - not sure about the the check or flat call when we make trips and the BDFD appears. I think I'd want to over-bet or go for a x/r if we check.
RIVER - yuck. Kinda gross with both straight and flush draws completing, and now losing to KQ as well as KJ. For bluffs, maybe QT or QJ makes some sense. Maybe an under-pair to the board that had some BDGSSD, like 99 or TT, if he just flats those pre. I also wonder if he slow plays 55 on the flop. Does he ever do this with AJ?
I'd probably talk myself into calling, because he could maybe be turning some SDV into a bluff, and we block KQ/KJ, but I don't think we're good here more than half the time. When we check-call turn, it looks like we have a weak value hand or a draw, and the most obvious draw got there. If we'd donk with our flushes, V has the green light to bluff.
I think you basically have to bet the turn. I would probably go with something like half pot, to put his flush draws and second/third pairs in a weird spot. When we check, I would check-raise instead of check-call.
On the river, he's repping a full house and you block a lot of possible full houses. Does he even bet turn with the NFD? Does he overbet with a non-nut flush? Your hand is under-repped, he seems like a player that can bluff, and there are plenty of bluff combos to choose from. I would call.
I would have bet or check/raised the turn. Terrible river card, and he knows it and put you in a tough spot. I doubt he does this w/o a hand that can beat AK (does he really think you will fold AK? Maybe he puts you on AA?), but it's a table read.
I don't see why we don't have KK/KQ/JJ and even QQ here, we should also have a bunch more NF and maybe more SF hands than villain (unless he's calling AhTh/Th9h on the flop). Not sure you are betting flop and calling turn with AJ, so you have maybe AQ/QT as worse hands.
V being in his twenties, calling the BTN preflop and the fact we played it passive and have a blocker are the main reasons to want to call. And if we think V is wide/agro. it's not even that great unless he barrels off, because then he has a bunch of 7h6h/6h5h type hands that got there.
QT makes sense as a bluff, KQ makes a lot of sense for value. AhTh also if he calls the flop with it. Even 55 or Ah5h feel like they should think about sizes and the fact you can have them beat, so I'd expect some kind of thought delay on the river bet at least.
If he has KT and will value bet this size with it, then you probably have to call.
If he's going to starving donkey poker blast river because you look weak then obv. call. Otherwise I'd assume it's a fold.
Honestly in game, with no reads, I might just call though because all the 20 something V's I see think that playing wide IP and blasting off are the two main strats. (and the reason I'd check turn is to let him) ... Your impression seems better than that though, so I'm not sure why you x/c turn and again fold river seems best.
Have you considered b/f on the river, like ~300-350?
As played, it's probably a fold.
Whether I am capable of folding in game, it's another story...
flop too big, dont see how u can fold range to this, his river sizing kind of odd (why not go for all of it?), suits look ok to call w (i guess AcKc better because u still block KQss / KJss but leave axdd floats open)
got no idea what we want him to have but also dont see much you lose to. again is easier to find bluffs and not funnel him down to good hands if you don't bomb the flop
would pay this one off but think line is mediocre in general
need him to either turn underpairs or 5x into a bluff or do something wild with qt / aq
I would call literally any other river but Qh could be a fold
Pre is good.
Flop is whatever: bet small, bet big, or check.
Bet the turn. AP, xr.
AP, unless you have seen V make big river bluffs, just fold. Your average 1/2 player doesn’t bluff enough to justify a call, and the Qh on the river made a lot of V’s possible hands.
The river is a bad card, but the overbet makes me want to call more. He is representing such a narrow range with it.
The turn play may be OK if he is very aggro and will keep firing like this.
Pre is good.
Flop is whatever: bet small, bet big, or check.
Bet the turn. AP, xr.
AP, unless you have seen V make big river bluffs, just fold. Your average 1/2 player doesn’t bluff enough to justify a call, and the Qh on the river made a lot of V’s possible hands.
Fyit, it's 5/5/10, not 1/2.
Still trying to make sense of both players' lines.
V should have some sort of hand when he calls our large flop c-bet. If he's floating with hands like 65hh or QT, I'd think he'd take the free card when we check turn.
His turn bet seems like he's just starting a bluff or trying to protect some SDV, like JX or maybe a lowe PP. Maybe he's setting up a big river bet with 55, but then we could have all the bigger boats on the river, and his big bet sizing folds out a lot or our AA and AK. Maybe he's targeting our flushes and straights?
Does he ever flat pre with ATs? A royal here would be sick.
We block KQ/KJ/K5. I'd think 55 would raise flop or bet bigger on turn, and might not go this big on the river. It would be pretty wild to do this with just a straight, and even his flushes might be concerned about our boats.
Sub brings up a good point about V not going for all the money. I wonder if that's a tell of some sort. The small over-bet may be a bluff he's not willing to fully commit to.
I dunno. Our line really under-reps our hand, and is likely to induce bluffs. It's just hard to find many bluffs with this run-out, and a lot of his value hands might not take this sizing on turn and river when we have so may super strong hands in our range.
It all comes down to whether this player is good enough to bluff here -- even at 5/5/10, it's questionable, but more likely than at lower stakes. At 1/2 or 1/3 I'd usually snap fold.
This is just such a perfect card for an over-bet bluff... (Maybe he's been watching Mariano 😉 )
Spoiler
I thought V was pretty aggressive, so I checked the turn to let him bluff. I didn't raise because I thought I'd keep his bluffs in. Then the river was a bad card, and he surprised me with the size of his bet. Though I couldn't really put him on many bluffs except maybe medium pocket pairs, though those didn't make a lot of sense. I almost folded. But I tank called and he showed AsQc. I was able to talk to him after the session and questioned him on his flop call. He said the solver says always call with a gut shot, so you have some bluffs. He said he thought he could get a fold from AA and maybe AK on the river. 2/3 of respondents here said call with AK. I think AK is rarely played the way I played it, so he probably didn't think I had AK until I tanked for a long time.
Do we think villain played his hand well?
i think you both played it poorly lol
he should 3b pre pure, and x the river. i pointed this out in my post but his sizing makes no sense really w stacks as they are. people are not folding Kx after this line and he blocks AA so he's ignoring his sdv to try to fold out ~3 combos while hoping you never hero / improve / trap while using an overbet (relevant bc he's laying himself bad odds). i think he just decided to bluff from the flop and didn't process that the river improved his hand
i think you don't understand the implications of pre (6x on a straddle!) on his range or how bet sizing works postflop vs the cold caller - there's probably very few boards where you want to force the money in w one pair at spr 11 vs a guy coldcalling ~5?% of hands. think you stumbled upon max exploit line vs him though
is hard to come up w range for him tbh but i think he should basically never call offsuit broadways here pre with the 2 limpers left to act imo
flop strat as hj vs btn 3x cold caller w no rake. now if we make button tighter and get rid of bunch of the hands that dont play well multiway think its going to look grimmer for you
vs basically pairs / suited bways / suited aces
his line is fine pre river but gives up pure. small ev loss but think in practice he is way over doing it if he bluffs aq here (again what is he targetting?). the way turn works for you is AK is pretty much always bet but if you don't bet it will x/r. it will slowplay / trap / put in less money if your hand is either better or worse but this is the exact stregnth it wants to just funnel money in with ott
