Daniel Negreanu's very own containment thread. All things Danny go here

I thought it paid 19 spots?

You are right. There are a bunch of short stacks. He has a decent chance of cashing, but they probably get blinded down and have little chance of making the final table.

Daniel: "I made 600k in 10 years in tournaments"

Me: Daniels made 600k in ten years from tournaments and tens of millions from being a brand ambassador

You: borg23 makes misleading statements..

Lmao like I said 1/2 donk logic

The only one cherry picking anything is you

He is an excellent player and you people are picking on him. This is very childish. If he wins, he is sunrunning. If he loses, he has a hustle and is a losing player.

Used to be many players had good endorsement contracts, particularly with all the FTP funny money. They are not going to hand out good contracts to someone because he is a good player. No one cares about that. It isn't like 2004 when it attracted business that someone was a "pro". Negreanu provides entertainment value and is valuable to GG, and people attack him for that.

I literally said if he had to make a good living purely from poker he could. It's just that he doesn't have to.

Nobody is attacking him for making piles and piles of money from GG. He's literally being complimented for it.

He just cashed the $100k PLO. Looks like Glaser bubbled.

Considering you are an actually fanatical Daniel Negreanu fan, I don't know why you didn't watch the vlog in which it is extremely, extremely, extremely, extremely (please add at least 200 more instances of "extremely") obvious from the included PokerGO footage that SB raised and Daniel called preflop.

From the clip (which I just rewatched for certainty), I am unclear on a lot of things: stack and bet sizes, most vitally.

But--if you are watching with even casual attention paid--it is completely impossible to miss that Daniel had to put more chips into the pot preflop to see a flop.

I am so angry that 2p2's block function apparently doesn't work. I tried to block you ages ago for your impossibly ignorant and stubborn near-spam, but it asked "are you sure?" and there were no buttons for confirming.

Since then, you have septupled-down (or more) on choosing ignorance and uncritical allegiance to a rich man who not only doesn't care about you but would find you to be an inconvenience if you approached him during the WSOP.

Edit: I got the ignore function to work, woohoo! I think the colors just made the confirm button invisible on the device I was on?

According to pokernews it was a limped pot, but that bustout hand from the big bet, he ckearly had a hand strong enough to call a raise from th sb in position

I am not a fanatical fan. I cant stand his vlogs and dont watch them.

I agree that if he didnt have the gg money, he might play a full schedule of tournaments and or high stakes cash mixed games.

His win totals are effected by 100k+ nlhe mtts where he may be a dog against the gto bots or it could be variance with a few high stakes tournanents. He has the gg money so doesnt need to worry about that

He would probably win more playing somewhat lower, more mixed games, and a fuller schedule.

However, i dont agree with twisting things that he is a losing player. Then if he wins, he is sunrunning

That Ivey misread is still unfathomable every time I see it.

At a certain point, you need to let the results speak for themselves.
Based on that, can we all just agree that Daniel is the 15th best PLO player in the world?

HHs from Pokernews are not factual and should not be used as such : they oftentimes show after the fact, ask the other people at the table (after the player involved in the hand busted) how the hand played out and approximate the narrative ; I can't recount the number of times the HHs were personally (miles) off!!!

The bustout hand from the big bet mixed makes more sense as a raised pot bvb, that they would gii with wrap against 2 pair and straight draw.

Out 15th. Ivey deeb lamb and schulman still in. Ivey in 3rd and will probably make the final table.

Ridiculous if they dont televise the ft. Should be packed with big nsmes like the ppc. Plo and mixed high rollers attract well known players. Most of them, unlike dn, leave the njhe high rollers to the gto types.

Shaun Deeb chip leading the 100k PLO high roller

I looked into my--again--extremely imperfect PLO BBA short-ish stack preflop sim.

It has SB completing his combo (so, not raising as was the case IRL) but Negreanu's combo calling a raise. I think that the actual situation would demand looser calls than my bad sim does, so I think preflop is fine for DN. SB... who knows; my gut is that it's overly ambitious and feels way more like a complete than a raise (SB doesn't block anything important and doesn't have all that much going on), but I don't have a slam-dunk answer.

That said, if I'm not mistaken (and I easily could be), Negreanu was 3rd in chips and SB was chip leader. I know Negreanu is playing for bracelets and not $EV (and is therefore basically just playing all cEV all the time, at least per his own stated goals), but I think he overplayed this no matter how you slice it.

(Someone PLEASE correct any of these details if they're wrong. For as much as I respect the math of poker, I do not trust my own math all the time even when it's easy, and I may have misinterpreted one detail or another from what I could gather about the HH. Btw, I forgot that PPT desktop licenses were free, which kept me from doing any of these equity calculations earlier ITT.)

I am mostly sure the hand is 36bb effective stacks to start. That's not deep but it's plenty for sticking around in a tournament. (I know Daniel isn't in the business of laddering, but uh... to use a very imperfect motorsports analogy: to finish first, first you must finish. More accurately: to play heads-up for a bracelet, first you gotta outlast everyone but one person.)

DN pays 1.5bb ante (the amount of which I believe is a big TIL for me; last I was studying PLO heavily, any ante was uncommon but emerging for tournaments), SB raises to 3bb. DN calls.

Flop (7.5bb) comes 4sTd9c. Eff stacks are 31.5bb.

SB bets 145k (not even 2bb, which would be 160k) per PokerNews (and the video didn't help me clarify), which suggests a range bet.

And my gut is that a range bet is really sensible. SB's raises should have a lot of broadway imo and that does well on this board. BB, less so.

If we give SB the top 27% of hands and DN the top 80% of hands but not the top 15% (all of which feels vaguely reasonable to me but not unquestionable), SB's range has 57% equity OTF.

Admittedly, DN's combo vs SB's range is surprisingly 59%. (See? I'm curious, not partisan.)

But here's the whole issue:

What's DN do with that range disadvantage? He raises when he has the slightly unfortunate end of a wrap (which is liable to be dominated by a continue as it was in the $50k when he had QT96) and bottom pair. I just think we're taking way too big of a risk here when we don't actually want to GII on this flop (which we'll practically be forced to do eventually by bloating the pot here). (We're also not folding, to be clear; we have way too much equity and the bet is way too small. Call is best and it's not close, imo.)

Outside of a sole J (which we can account for, but only so much), DN unblocks basically all of SB's bet/continues. So--unsurprisingly--SB continues after DN raises.

We've now strengthened SB's range to only be continues: let's say... TT, 99, 44, T9, T4, QJ for the sake of argument? We can stretch further if we really want to (I'm not sure what a sim has us continuing with; I'd guess pretty confidently that it's wider), but if we look at DN's combo vs this narrowed range, we have 49% equity. We are not pushing a pot equity edge here by raising. Not as stipulated (and we can discuss details, sure). And our fold equity is really unimpressive to my imagination. Regardless, I think it's really hard to advocate for a raise OTF if you're working through the details.

Turn Kd. As-played, pot is now 30bb and players have just over 10bb (...right? I sure hope I'm right). Anybody with any ostensible equity is going to GII. The turn basically plays itself and there isn't much to discuss, but DN's flop raise gets us here and has us (as "Hero") just hating life (unless you're DN and refuse to think critically about PLO).

We have a J, but that absolutely doesn't mean that SB can't have QJ. I'd weigh QJ pretty darn heavily in their range, frankly. Failing that, they have a lot of other higher SDV combos than ours. And our flush draw is sabotaged by our third diamond in-hand. And it's only jack-high. And we're not folding, but our tournament life is on the line. Maybe we're drawing dead, maybe not. Not my favorite spot to be in. And we did it to ourselves. Yuck city.

It's just a really crappy spot vs (narrowed) range: we have 34% equity (which I guess theoretically means we can't be pushed off of the hand even with more chips... sort of).

Vs combo? Sure, Daniel has a small edge; cool. There are no soul reads in PLO, though. We play vs ranges (as we also do in NLH, but I can at least entertain the mythology of Negreanu soul reads for funsies in NLH, at least as a silly spectacle).

Imagine the alternative and likely best line (which--I cannot emphasize this enough--Daniel REFUSES to consider in these big PLO hands):

SB bets 145k, Hero calls.

Kd comes OTT and pot is about 11bb while players have about 28bb behind. We have 47% equity if SB bets range OTF (which--from the sizing--is a reasonable interpretation). Therefore, we gain up to 13 points of pot equity just by calling instead of raising. And we increase the SPR with position, which is to our benefit as a rule.

Almost regardless of what SB decides (and I'm inclined to think the actual SB combo slows tf down, allowing us to realize our equity better or maybe even deny his), there's just so many more options here.

DN completely handcuffed himself by raising flop when I just don't think there are very many reasons to expect good things to result from the raise. You commit yourself to your tournament life very, very questionably. You just want more going on to be taking that risk, right?

Summing up: this awareness of the dynamics of future streets (whether we're making decisions preflop or postflop) is so crucial for PLO because conditions change extremely quickly and dramatically. And to raise this flop, you either expect to deny equity (unlikely; again, barely any meaningful blockers) or grow the pot for when you win it. Negreanu can't expect to win on future streets often enough versus SB's continues, especially when his remaining stack offers no significant fold equity if he shoves himself OTT.

tl;dr: You need to want the pot to grow more than DN should want, to be raising this flop.

(Man, talking about poker is so much fun.)

This right here. So many poker players glaze mtt regs with high winnings. Mtt is variance is insane and you’re never going to get in sample big enough playing live

As far as the PLO BvB bustout hand from the 2.5K mixed, he was the favorite when he potted the flop with a wrap. I agree it wasn't that good a wrap. The chip leader in the SB was cbetting a wide range, so was usually going to have to fold a significant pot. When SB called or 3!, DN had good equity. It seems like a standard play, although you could play cautiously for ICM and flat call. Then if you miss, and SB bets big on the turn, you probably have to fold.

I am not sure you can look at bustout hands and find huge mistakes.

Ya its pretty bad.

There are many like this though. See how massive his eigo is, pretty embarassing.
The gap between how great he is in his head vs real life is embarassing.
Gets worse when you condsider there is probably 1000 people on this planet who could
bet Daniel tomorrow a million different poker bets and he has no choice but to back down.

We have a problem in society too where little people have 10 times the eigo. Because Daniel
is a little twerp, his eigo is many many times greater I believe. Little man complex is real.
Like Floyd Mayweather and Connor mcgregor are like 10 times more arrogant and cocky than
say Mike Tyson and Jon Jones.

The real problem ultimately too is that prime vs prime, Mike Tyson smashes Mayweather, and Jon
Jones smashes Mcgregor. So the 2 guys that wouldn't even exist if not for weight classes are like
10 times more arrogant than the heavy weight champions that would smash them in seconds.

This is admittedly a derail of a derail, but when I was a student, UC Davis had a separate height class for its intramural basketball leagues, with one being for people 5-10 and under. It was pretty much a way to have a separate league for Asians without actually calling it that. DNegs is humble about his PLO abilities compared to what the average dude in that league thought about his basketball skills. I once heard two of them saying non-ironically that they were better than 75 percent of the NBA except for their height.

As is, some 30 years after graduating, I still often tell people I'm the only Asian-American male in Northern California who admits he sucks at basketball. 😀

Thats hilarious, I have NEVER heard that, were there just that many good hoopers above 5’10?!?

Not really, but there's a point where that size difference can be a bear to overcome. UC Davis has had a high Asian population for as long as I can remember, so my guess is a group of these pick-up game ballers pushed the intramurals office for a separate Asian league.

Obviously, there are places for short kings on the basketball court, but you better have some serious hops or quickness, or else that height difference is beyond equalizing.

Anyway, the whole short-guy complex is certainly real. I've probably been guilty of it myself over the years. I'm not sure how much it results in inflated ego as the previous poster says, but it does result in some posturing. In fact, I'd argue that a lot of short kings have less of an ego, then compensate for it accordingly.

I agree with your frame of thought about ego friend, but comparing different weight divisions is apple to oranges and age old discussion, like it would be comparing fighters from different martial arts.

I am having a hard time believing this story. What was the name of the league you played in that had a height requirement? Any streetballer even thinking they can make the NBA at 5ft 10 are bums who are delusional. I walked on to the Monterey Peninsula College basketball team out of high school. I am 6ft 4 inches 210 pounds and I never thought I was going to make the NBA. Basketball and poker have people who think they are better than they are. When I was in middle school there were already 2 guys at my school that could dunk. No one from where I lived made the NBA. Not even E.J Roland made the NBA. Streetball along with poker is all talk and no substance.

Is Daniel plus for the series?

yes he's up about 200k and at this point the plus is locked in