Daniel Negreanu's very own containment thread. All things Danny go here
how bad must he be when a girl falls asleep while making out and snores right after?
life fish..... food arrived but didn
The majority of the naysayers have stated they believe Dnegs is strong in mixed games, and does well in fields outside the massive high-rollers. But that he's outclassed in high rollers and he overestimates his skill in PLO.
I’m not going to disagree with this statement … but doesn’t that still make him better than 99% of poker players ?
Daniel 2nd in chips with 50 left in the $10K Limit 2-7. Seems like hes for every mixed tournament hes near the chip lead and makes a final table. I really dont want to hear anyone in this thread talk about how the game has passed this guy by. He is very clearly still one of the most well rounded players in the game.
He busted that 28th with 22 places paying. Yeah, he is usually among the leaders at some point in every mixed game tournament. Then he has the most PGT wins, and those are mostly NLHE or PLO. So maybe part of the reason for his endorsement contract is people can follow him making deep runs in so many tournaments???
I’m not going to disagree with this statement … but doesn’t that still make him better than 99% of poker players ?
Ok, look at it this way. It's like when Hellmuth is trying to claim he's great at cash games, or he's better than Ivey at NLH, etc. Just because someone is skilled at poker doesn't mean we should just accept their delusions regarding things that aren't true.
Today is WSOP Event #74: $10,000 Pot-Limit Omaha Championship
You just know Daniel is gonna crush this event.
PLO is Daniel's jam.
Let me be really clear about a few things:
First of all, I think some people are really confused about what stage of the tournament the QT96 hand was in and--consequently--what does and doesn't matter. Similarly, 30bb is at least twice what Daniel had.
Also, why are some folks acting like he was playing the $600 deepstack? It was a $50k. There are probably a significant number of people who will torch $50k on a PLO tournament they are -EV in (perhaps we've been talking about one of them this whole time), but acting as though Negreanu can make some explo preflop adjustment on the field is not especially easy to argue. I'd err on the side of assuming the field is guys who know what they're doing. Regardless of the details of the arguments in this thread, I would absolutely not name Negreanu as a favorite in a $50k PLO field, if reasonable assumptions are correct about who is playing that.
Also, AT85 nut suit is probably an unremarkable PLO hand to bust on, but I'm not totally clear on stack sizes. I'd be surprised if it's anything close to a blunder. (DNegs was super short in Razz but tripled up at least for a moment before PLO came out.) Hellmuth's QQT5 is perhaps optimistic for getting it in preflop, but--again--unclear on stacks and I doubt it's a big mistake. (Also, for all of my ego that I've displayed in this thread, I really want to emphasize that PLO with BBA is not a preflop area I'm learned on the finer details of.)
WRT the PokerGO clip of Daniel talking about PLO:
My first impression is "well, yeah, anybody can close it out with AKK nut suit; nice work if you can get it". But that's not important.
Here's the thing some folks may be missing about my criticisms of Daniel: I honestly think he's mostly right about why he COULD be good at PLO. He just has seemingly no awareness (self or otherwise) of preflop details, and this is going a ways back. I remember seeing a pretty old clip of him playing PLO and he had all of these baby cards and--look, many pros look hilariously bad at PLO in, like, the old PAD cash games--but he's clearly undisciplined on that street and it clearly costs him. We don't want to be results oriented, but--again-- QT96 running into AQTx (I forget the fourth card) is him getting what he deserves.
All that said, my impression is that he's better preflop than he used to be (as many people are). But he still just doesn't seem to get that a lot of pretty hands have serious reverse implied odds.
But, to re-emphasize: I don't even disagree with him about his potential. When he says, "you don't really have to fold to 3-bets" he's not wrong.
But when he says "you get to see flops" and--in his vlog, over and over--he says "well the hand equities run close so idk just VPIP"... THIS IS MICROSTAKES FISH LEVEL THINKING.
PLO isn't some magical form of poker where you get to realize your equity just because you VPIP. You still don't know your opponents' holdings and you still don't get to arrive at showdown for free all of the time. Is Daniel able to outmaneuver opponents postflop? I mean, maybe. But anyone who's spent more time in the lab than he has (which, by the looks of things, would not be difficult) probably has a significant edge on him postflop.
I think the pot limit nature of the game probably DOES suit him (it is likely telling that his first bracelet was in pot limit hold 'em), but--with the way he plays right now--that may only be true insofar in that it's limiting his losses.
His overconfident lack of curiosity (contrasted with all of the homework he VERY OBVIOUSLY DID with NLH; there is clearly a before-lab and after-lab quality to his NLH game, seemingly inspired by Polk's challenge) is just shocking when he's a guy who loves the details of poker. He just seems to have that part of his brain shut off when it comes to PLO. This is what is so constantly surprising to me.
Again, this thread has considered the merits of his QT96 VPIP infinitely more than he ever even entertained the possibility of (don't forget his verbiage and emphatic belief that it was a slam-dunk VPIP). Everything he says about PLO suggests that he thinks that preflop strategy barely matters, when that's extremely untrue. Your preflop choices dictate the situations you find yourself in postflop; PLO is not an exception in this regard.
Regardless of who is right (and let me be clear that we still don't have the evidence we would need in order to know), that collectively places us at a more critical level of PLO thinking than Negreanu shows. (Yes, I'm including the folks ITT who... I continue to be surprised by how they're digging in and repeating themselves.)
Fairly dicey HH on todays vlog where he patted 87322 in 1-1 drawing spot and bluffed on the end. That is not a thing.
Your preflop choices dictate the situations you find yourself in postflop; PLO is not an exception in this regard.
This x1000. You can't just play any four napkins because equities run close preflop, you need to consider post-flop how you'll be able to manuever, what board textures are going to be good for you, and what textures are going to put you in trouble where your crappy hand is going to make non-nutted "made" hands that are destroyed because your opponents are making better preflop continuation decisions than you.
Let me be really clear about a few things: First of all, I think ...Regardless of who is right (and let me be clear that we still don't have the evidence we would need in order to know), that collectively places us at a more critical level of PLO thinking than Negreanu shows. (Yes, I'm including the folks ITT who... I continue to be surprised by how they're digging in and repea
Some people might be bummed to read another 20,000 word essay with thrilling conclusion of “we still don’t have enough evidence to know who is right”
Some people might be bummed to read another 20,000 word essay with thrilling conclusion of “we still don’t have enough evidence to know who is right”
Then let me offer you something more suited to your attention span (which you have every right to expand or shrink to your comfort; this isn't actually my issue with your comments): if you actually want to ignore me, then do it and shut up. Your cheap dunks are childish and unimpressive. God forbid I want to discuss poker at length on a poker forum.
If you can stomach a few more sentences: yeah, we don't know who is right. Nobody has presented the preflop sim with appropriate stack sizes, dead money, and action.
Meanwhile, just about everyone experienced with PLO is basically on the same page in their skepticism towards the QT96 VPIP.
To figure out who's right, we have three options stemming from two mutually exclusive premises.
Premise 1: An appropriate preflop sim will tell us the right way to play a $50K PLO MTT.
Premise 2: A preflop sim will not tell us the above with any meaningful accuracy.
If 1 is true (and I ultimately think it is given the price point and presumptive field), then someone's got to pony up (either the money or the computer cycles) to solve this problem that none of us have a direct stake in. Unlikely. A handful of us have taken a stab at approximations to help sand down the rougher edges of our experienced intuition. Speaking of...
If 2 is true, then we can either appeal to people who are experienced with PLO and their intuitions, or we can appeal to people who are admittedly inexperienced with PLO.
There seem to be roughly two people in this thread who think that the best path to the best answer is not merely suspending judgment while no appropriate sim is available, but relying on the hunches of people who have not studied or played the game extensively, while dismissing the opinions of those who are exceptionally familiar with it.
Scotch, if I am not describing you correctly, forgive me. But you're allying yourself with someone who is behaving precisely in this way, not doing anything (that I can recall without scrolling) to dissuade me of this impression, and joining a relatively lonely and baffling fight against what is literally a growing chorus of people ITT saying "dawg, I don't think Daniel has his head on straight about PLO".
And let me emphasize once more that what Daniel displays again and again is not just disagreeable conclusions about PLO. People can have honest disagreements about PLO, especially regarding when sims are and are not appropriate.
No: what Daniel displays over and over is a fundamental lack of curiosity. Again, ITT we have shown that QT96 is in a murky area of an extremely complex game. Daniel believes it's a simple question, if it's a question at all. This is his blunder more than the VPIP itself is. Even deuce has described it as a marginal hand; this is the bare minimum common ground we've found ITT but it's something Daniel has explicitly disagreed with.
Any PLO expert with any curiosity at all would--if they busted after VPIPing a marginal hand--try to learn from that high-leverage situation in the lab. Daniel shows absolutely no such impulse.
I don't read the comments of every one of his vlog episodes, but it's telling that--when an experienced PLO player (not me) suggested that Mercier never has the straight flush he represented via XR on Ac5c2c--Daniel responded "you are definitely wrong".
Imagine Phil Galfond saying that. He wouldn't. He would want to investigate the question and be open to actually learning something, even if it was counterintuitive for him specifically or prevailing wisdom more broadly. (For the record, I agreed with this commenter. Mercier shouldn't have a XR range there, imo. But when his hole cards were revealed, it at least made a little sense rather than no sense. But before the cards were revealed, my real-time intuition was "he absolutely doesn't have it".)
(Also, at risk of being results-oriented again: Mercier literally didn't have it.)
Then let me offer you something more suited to your attention span (which you have every right to expand or shrink to your comfort; this isn't actually my issue with your comments): if you actually want to ignore me, then do it and shut up. Your cheap dunks are childish and unimpressive. God forbid I want to discuss poker at length on a poker forum.If you can stomach a few more
Woah ez there, I said some people. Didn’t necessarily mean me. Keep’em coming
If you were not being sarcastic, you'll have to forgive me given the context of both the thread and... like, just... the internet. (Especially because I'm no stranger to people online being like "i wanna talk about this thing", then me being like "oh yeah me too", and then them being like "oh, but you're wrong", and me being like "[500+ words about how i'm not]" and them being like "lol i never cared about this thing you maniac imagine caring about it". Very tilting.)
He has results in PLO tournaments with high percentages of pros. PLO isn't his best game. However, tournament PLO is different from cash PLO. The play is tighter. It is more about taking the blinds and antes. There is moving up in places, and exploiting those moving up in places. DN clearly has strong tournament skills.
He definitely is not the best mixed game tournament player. Seiver, Schulman, and M. Mizrachi have many more bracelets in recent years. There is no question that he is worse in NLHE tournaments than mixed games.
However, he is a very strong tournament player. I follow him every Series. He always has big stacks or goes deep in several events.
His jam
There's no other way to say it.
Daniel Negreanu is an idiot.
If he spent less time showing off, less time jumping around, he might not be the giant douche that he has become.
Daniel Negreanu Misreads Hand, Busts WSOP $10K Pot-Limit Omaha Event
In before "I follow him every series, his percentage of misread hands aligns with that of other top pros."
Daniel " I misread my jam" Negreanu
DNegs: Luckily the structure in the 1500s is a bit better this year, so Im gonna play the 8game.
What he means: The structure is shittier so I dont have to waste as much time in a 1500.
Man of the people as always, Daniel Negreanu!
Never miss a beat.
Are you in love/obsessed with DNeg or what?
Some here are the exact opposite of you and never miss a beat either, this is comical.
It gets awfully confusing with all those cards in PLO. I think Ivey mucked the winning hand on TV.
Couple years back I was playing the $1,500 Big O event , which is even more confusing because you get 5 cards....
There was a multiway pot with 6 people, one of whom was Josh Arieh. Me and him get into a raising war and get it all in on the flop. I thought I had the nut straight...I emphatically say : "straight!", i look down at my hand and realize I in fact did not have a straight and look at Arieh and go "errr umm, yeah I misread my hand" he goes "it doesnt matter what you have youre ahead". Which I was, but in actuality equities were around 50/50, he wound up going runner runner full house to bust me. That was one of only 3 WSOP events I ever played. Now that I have 3 kids money is tighter, not sure when I'll be able to afford another WSOP event. Not going to lie it was kind of a bummer going out that way!
It gets awfully confusing with all those cards in PLO. I think Ivey mucked the winning hand on TV.
I'm a little confuzzled, though - today's vlog showed the hand in question, but Daniel made no mention about his misreading his cards. Did he not say something right as it happened, as PokerNews reported? Or did he claim to have misread his hand later to save a little face?
EDIT: Also, the video shows him jamming on the K turn, not the T river. Dafuq.
