President Donald Trump

headline inflation clearly increases one time with tariffs but inflation in the sense central banks usually care (core pce / inflation expectations) doesn't change after the one time shock that can be modeled as exogenous.

moreover the slowdown that correctly happens (it is a tax so real demand is reduced) afterwards is definitionally deflationary at the margin. so inflation after the one time bump with the introduction of tariffs goes *down* because of the induced slowdown in the economy.

people are poorer in real terms, the economy slows down, but inflation isn't the problem.

inflation is the rate of growth of prices, paradoxically one off events don't work the way people who are going to be hurt by them think on inflation.

we had a very similar modeling "conundrum" a few years ago when Japan mulled then delayed more than once an I crease in sales taxes.

Coffee up ~5/lb this week so an extra ~250/yr for 1 item for me. Is my 2500 over the next 10yrs going to help build coffee farms here lol or am I hoping to help some HS dropout make 12/hr staring at robots in a widget factory?

Walk me thru it trumpers.

Your first mistake is assuming people can explain any of this.

Trump is using something similar to this right now:

Just saw one of the South Park writers released a fake Maga dating site.

why would an IQ test prove you are intelligent? I mean after all you could be an autistic savant. you certainly fall into at least one of those categories.

Be careful with talk of IQ-offs or you'll summon Sklansky into the thread.

You guys need to compare ASVAB scores, that's how we resolve IQ4ROLLZ in these parts.

Free Pointless Words

I’ll do an autism test 4 rollz. The person with the most autism loses

Do we really need to? You seem to be doing a fine enough job for the both of you.

Yup that’s what’s we all think with trump …
Your comment explains a lot of thing .
To my knowledge , No one think the U.S. is the top morality compass in this world .
So keep praising trump on false premise .

The extra money you're paying goes to the same place as the money you paid extra for when you bought lumber or an ounce of gold. It has nothing to do with the president.

Your coffee prices is literally going to be at the mercy of what the weather like is in Brazil, and how antzy speculators decide to get. Brazil is in a drought, less coffee, futures go up, prices go up.

While trump tariffs don't help and they are particularly stupid for coffee specifically (even more than for other goods), the main reason you are paying more for coffee is this

We can endlessly speculate about what is causing global coffee price to raise so much, but anyway it's not about trump tariffs.

The tariffs add problems and uncertainty of course but they aren't the main cause of coffee price hikes

So we're going with the weather was bad monday and that's why the price was 5 higher on wednesday? Break out the 10yr charts lol

Ok so like Hunter Biden's laptop, the widespread revulsion to the mass killing of innocent people and the blaming of those who did it "has all the earmarks of a Russian intelligence operation".

Do you hear yourself?

Was that the Russian state or just some Russians running weird clickbait that accomplished nothing? Did the bots jump into Colin Kaepernick's ears and tell him not to stand for the pledge of allegiance? And they've been doing that continuously and there is no way to stop them? And these bots have gone from creating racial divisions in America to making people not think genocide is bad?

You can't be hearing yourself.

We know that? What is this propaganda? I'd like to see it. Usually propaganda is meant to be deceptive. I'm struggling to think of how to propagandize innocent victims of the insane level of bombing of civilians Gaza has seen. Is it showing the IDF doing exactly what they are doing and the mere truth functions like propaganda? If someone told me here are tens of thousands of innocent dead people and my task was to propagandize them against the killers I wouldn't have any idea what would be worse for the killers than just presenting it as news. Maybe the IDF are showing as meaning mugging the children before shooting them when in reality they are smiling. Pro victim propaganda seems like an oxymoron.

This is another consequence of allowing these people in power to lie nonstop - it makes people insane. People lose trust in their own faculties and fall victim to thought control. It's sad.

Yes

new trump tariffs on coffee producing countries are 10%.

ofc the price of coffee itself isn't 100% of what you pay (you pay for logistics , packaging and everything else as well) so any increase above 5-6% (and often less than that) cannot be tariffs

I'm certainly not going to do any gathering of materials for you when you are being a condescending moron while clearly refusing to "look into it"

The reason I say "We know" certain things is because... we know them as fact. As in proof is documented and available for you to see

I think coordie is the one actually spreading Russian propaganda.

a failing state with collapsing demographics, and the GDP of Spain even with 3x the population, led by a kleptocratic regime, cannot be as remotely as successful in manipulating western domestic politics as cordie and others claim.

Russia isn't accomplishing 1% of what purported enemies of Russia claim it does, and it's frequent to exaggerate the power of the enemy in order to try to convince people it is so dangerous, unlimited resources should be given in the hands of those that want to beat them.

and ofc the foreign enemy is always helping your domestic enemies, ca va sans dire.

reality is Russia propaganda "works" only inasmuch as it claims stuff people already want to push for their own reasons inside the west, so basically not at all.

there aren't people being convinced by Russian propaganda (except the cordies Who decide to claim Russia is the best country in the world at manipulating other countries agenda), there are people that always believed x and y that keep believing x and y even if very vanilla, unharmful propaganda by Russia claim x and y.

pro Hamas western antisemites don't need Russian propaganda to be pro Hamas antisemites.

anti immigration Europeans and Americans don't need Russian propaganda to be anti immigration.

anti western domestic elements that always existed with a deep hatred for the system that gives them the most prosperity the world has even seen don't need Russian propaganda to be western hating anticapitalists.

and so on

You don't have to. I know about the so called Russian trolls. The actual content has been collected and published. I've posted some of it ITF, in other threads, because I know people have formed opinions about it with actually reading it. It's quite funny, mainly stuff intended to be click bait that just didn't translate well into English. What is more funny is that anyone thinks it was intended to or conceivably even could sway American public opinion.

There is no Russian "pro Palestinian propaganda". I know it's hard for you to believe, but people actually don't like their government to be complicit with the mass killing of women and children. It's just a thing in most people. It's there naturally and you don't have to activate it with any propaganda.

Yes, but you go out of your way to talk about how not-so-bad Putin is every chance you get, even when it doesn't relate to anything being discussed.

You don't know up from down on this subject apparently but thats fine.

This is the trump thread and not the commodity trading thread but it's heavily due to Brazil. But it's also a game of wac a mole with soft commodities with production - at least in terms of Brazil's revenue, and them finding a way to export what they can with what they have to work with. COfee is sensitive to drought, soybeans aren't, so crop switching takes place when more money can be made from soybeans than coffee - when dependent on weather related issues. Coffee prices up, soybeans down.

You can argue that the not enough attention was directed to climate related issues in the grand scheme of it all. But it's up to what happens with Brazil and what they elect to do.

My doggie is only getting 2 chew toys this Xmas instead of the usual 30. :(