Started a €150 to €10k Holdem challenge

A quarter of the challenge complete now

Cheers! Lol hopefully not 5NL at least that much. Still some 10 though, depends a bit on my daily mood. I know even 20 instead of 50 only sounds insanity for many with these graphs, but I'm OK being insane as long as I'm not stressed out 😀

Ugh. Kind of a shitty end for the month, even though overall I guess it's been alright. Been studying quite a bit, but due to some personal issues and previous run, was kinda happy playing mostly just 10NL towards the end of the month. Honestly not feeling good about my game right now, especially the mental game, but glad I'm taking the beats at a stake where I don't really care about the money, and where my BR isn't at risk. There's obv been some spaz by myself here like always, but a lot of the last week or so has been pretty ridiculous, but I know that's expected every once in a while. I guess it's time for a short break, at least until I'm in a mindset where I can open the tables again and not fear or overly suspect the absolute worst in every single spot I face XD

Euro graph since the start of the blog in early July. MTT profit 110.16, so overall 2584.98 euro (2907 USD), which so far has been 861.66 euro (1008 USD) per month. So not too bad for a rec I guess, which is something I try to keep in mind right now when I feel like I'm being exploited the crap out of by every nit, whale, and all other toilet regs in the pool 😃

iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 12.07, 3Bet Preflop: 4.59, Hands: 1, 471)
CO: 277.2 BB (VPIP: 26.51, PFR: 21.40, 3Bet Preflop: 10.88, Hands: 9, 006)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 19.15, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 48)
SB: 100.5 BB (VPIP: 13.59, PFR: 12.67, 3Bet Preflop: 5.93, Hands: 2, 070)
Hero (BB): 597.9 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6♥ 7♣

fold, CO raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) 7♥ 3♣ K♥
Hero checks, CO bets 3.8 BB, Hero calls 3.8 BB

Turn: (13.1 BB, 2 players) 3♠
Hero checks, CO bets 9.1 BB, Hero calls 9.1 BB

River: (31.3 BB, 2 players) T♦
Hero checks, CO bets 24 BB, Hero raises to 83.4 BB, fold

Ok so haven't shared a hand in a while, so here we go. I've got quite a few reads on CO, and therefore I thought widening up my BB defense range a little bit was OK almost 300 bbd against 2.5 bb. I actually haven't studied BB defense ranges that much ultra deep, but I remembered seeing some charts were offsuit connectors might be low freq calls from the BB, and I thought it's close enough this time against this guy. This site also has a lot lower rake so we get to defend wider than on say Stars or Party or whatever. They also open from CO about 30%, always 2.5x.

Another read I had on them is that they triple barrel SRP a lot in position. Like waayyy too much. Like flop cb 65, turn 65, river 80. Fold to river XR 70+, but not a large sample for that anymore. I also had a note on them telling myself to look for turn/river sizing tells (large = thin, overbet polarized). So I think therefore I don't really wanna be calling that much against this size on the river without top pair jack kicker or better. The 6h I have is a minor problem for me, but I don't think that really matters that much since they have so many flush draw combos without the 6h to barrel anyways. If they barrell their 65 and 54 gutters, I'm pretty sure they would have overbet the turn rather than large. Especially this deep.

The river is interesting, was expecting them to continue with a plan of probably calling their overbet, and raising the large like I did. I wasn't 100% sure how spazzy the raise is even though I admit it at least looks like a spew, but on the other hand, I'm pretty sure I'm gonna see them starting to overfold here. If they do indeed overfold the river, meaning about 65% or more instead of 60%, then I believe raising any 7X and TX left in my range becomes almost mandatory. Perhaps even all missed flush draws. They absolutely will not find bluff 3bet jams on the river this deep anymore, not at 10NL, so I'm actually quite sure raising here is OK even if they call as often as they should.

Also on this site, you get to change your nick every few months, and I changed mine a couple of weeks ago. This guy has used the same screen name the entire year or longer, so almost zero chance he has 9k hands on me too, more like 300 or something, so he's essentially got just pool reg reads on me, and therefore I have a pretty big information advantage here.

But yeah, just decided to share this one because there's a lot of questionable shit from me going on. With just pool reads, this hand would have ended preflop 100% of the time. So feel free to let me know how spewy this was 😃

very nice graph! can we get a stakes breakdown or it this all 10NL?

Do you have any plans to move up?

Cheers! No I don't really have any plans to move up to 50 right now, but my mind could change after some run good, and who knows if my shots succeed. So far they haven't, I mean before this blog when I took shots there a bit more aggressively. After all, this is just a hobby for me, and I don't have any reason to play as high as I possibly could. Also I'm currently studying much more than playing, and I really enjoy all of this right now when there isn't someone like a backer or myself just constantly telling me to take shots all the time.

There are also some strat issues in my game that I need to find solutions to before trying to play this game for real money, and I'm not sure if I'll ever even wanna do that.

Recovery in progress

iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 186.5 BB (VPIP: 24.28, PFR: 19.46, 3Bet Preflop: 8.23, Hands: 2, 195)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.51, PFR: 13.79, 3Bet Preflop: 7.71, Hands: 3, 262)
UTG: 94.1 BB (VPIP: 48.34, PFR: 4.90, 3Bet Preflop: 1.17, Hands: 641)
Hero (CO): 126.7 BB
BTN: 100.7 BB (VPIP: 38.88, PFR: 25.49, 3Bet Preflop: 4.74, Hands: 953)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5♥ 5♦

fold, Hero raises to 2.2 BB, fold, SB raises to 10.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 8.3 BB

Flop: (22 BB, 2 players) 4♦ K♠ 2♥
SB bets 7 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn: (36 BB, 2 players) 3♠
SB bets 11.5 BB, Hero calls 11.5 BB

River: (59 BB, 2 players) T♥
SB bets 17 BB, Hero raises to 97.7 BB, SB calls 80.7 BB

Pretty sick call by villain here, and obviously not a great raise jam by me if I had an idea they'd be calling this light. Reads on them were that this was a better than usual but still kinda tightish 10NL-20NL reg based on their seemingly pretty disciplined positional preflop stats, and I hadn't seen them do anything unusual before. I still don't really hate my play here, I think this combo is pretty close to being the best possible bluff left in my range here, in addition to maybe 54, A4, and I guess some TX. I could be raising and sometimes maybe mixing raises and folds flop already, latter if I have a reason to believe they're 3betting pre here tighter than I assumed this time. Turn ofc just an obvious call, never ever letting them deny this kind of equity by giving them an opportunity to over 3bet jam their top range there.

I mean I'm not sure I like their sizes here on any street, but they might know something I don't or expect me raise jam river way too wide against three small bets this deep, which could make it a pretty reasonable line. They probably could get more value from my entire range by betting the flop larger, checking turn and the then expecting a lot of pot shopping OTT and OTR by me with a little bit wider range of my trashy hands that are still there. But yeah, don't know their reasoning or if there was any more than just button clicking going on. Nice hand by them at least this time 😃

Ok so 3k euros done now when we include the little over a hundred from tourneys since I started this this thread. Not much more to say, got the Wizard AI last month so tried to do as much with it as possible before my subscription there expired. Now back to just Pio and Rocket, wanted to update my preflop ranges against different villain profiles and stack depths, so playing volume has been pretty low the last few weeks. Now just play, fun and review with some new things in my strat that I now feel more confident executing on the tables as well.

I had a bit of a stretch last month were I was getting overly results oriented and felt I played like ****, so some form of tilt, but now I feel better because I believe my understanding of the game has taken at least a small step forward by just seeing more and more how solvers adapt to different kinds of imbalances on every street, and then trying to find some logic behind it, often by discussing about them with a friend. So maybe I will after all take some 50 on the side pretty soon, but we'll see.

If someone knows how to do effective multi street node locking starting from preflop, please feel free to comment. If that's even possible currently. I mean for like the following situation: 100 bb eff. We open BTN 2.5, SB folds, BB reg 3bets 13 bb - We have a 30k-hand sample on them, and have a pretty good idea about their positional ranges. However, they tend to way over barrel each street post flop in 3b pots, which means they get to over realize their equity unless we start raising more post flop. However, can we somehow get answers from preflop solvers on how solvers might adapt their range there already, instead of just adapting post flop? Like I'm assuming maybe like putting more broadway pairs into calls, more mid pairs into 4bets etc.. Yeah I know that's also exploitable, and sooner or later they would notice, but I'm just not super convinced the best possible exploit is to just counter aggro postflop only, since we know a node locked imbalance on one street effects the strategy of the entire game tree. Basically exactly the same reason we wanna play wider ranges in position against a fish who we know will mega spazz post, but I'd just like to become more studied about the preflop range adaptations, and not just make **** up as I go.

Then just a mandatory fun hand. Didn't win anything this time, but at least the other two guys probably said **** when the cards went face up on the turn lol.

iPoker - €0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 108.5 BB (VPIP: 26.27, PFR: 18.64, 3Bet Preflop: 6.51, Hands: 844)
BB: 101.5 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
Hero (CO): 105.5 BB
BTN: 104.5 BB (VPIP: 38.79, PFR: 25.46, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 950)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7♥ A♥

Hero raises to 2.2 BB, BTN calls 2.2 BB, fold, BB calls 1.2 BB

Flop: (7.1 BB, 3 players) J♥ K♣ Q♦
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: (7.1 BB, 3 players) T♥
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets 4.9 BB, BB raises to 21.7 BB, Hero raises to 103.3 BB, BTN calls 97.4 BB, BB calls 77.6 BB

River: (311 BB, 3 players) 5♠

I'm pretty sure you can get exploitative preflop ranges based on postflop node locks in HRC.

I haven't checked this spot, but I assume the same logic that applies to postflop applies to preflop:
Slowplay hands that want to face a lot of bets (i.e high pockets) and fold or 4bet the more marginal hands that does not want to face a lot of bets, like A6s/K8s/Q9s.
I'm guessing a hand like AK is probably more neutral.

It's like when we face a raise on the flop and we expect him to barrel turn too often -- we slow play more and fold (or 3bet) the more marginal floats that does
not want to face bets on the turn and river.

I'm not sure about low pairs and suited connectors. It will probably depend on stack depth, since they will struggle more to realize equity when they don't hit,
but win bigger pots when they do hit.

In the Ah7h hand, BTN probably made a mistake of calling the all-in when you take rake + flush draws into account 😃
It's probably more common knowledge among PLO players that the nuts is not always a very strong hand to get it in with!

Yeah cheers for the comment mate. I knew that redraw freerolling is a thing in PLO when I played this hand, and was expecting all AX combos by both to call.

To be fair the BTN also had a choice of just folding pre to begin with 😃

OK so been thinking about this journey lately.

I'll be playing lower volume from now on for some time. Actually already have for some time now. I haven't rally had much goals in poker, just been going with the idea that I wanna improve and enjoy the process. That has probably taken some moving up ambition away from me. Lately I've spent at least 4x the amount of time and energy on studying both pre and post than playing. Also analyzing my own stats and researching some player profile tendencies.

I think my plan is to play and think about the game less for the next few weeks, and focus more on increasing my non-poker income. I've been kinda frustrated by the fact that I know that I can play this game profitably in a soft pool, but I've basically been withdrawing my rent every month. That basically puts me in a situation where I'm never going to be able to move up with my current habits.

So I think I have three options now.

1) Keep on playing/studying as a hobby that makes me more money than it takes.
2) Take shots much more aggressively until I've built a roll with which I can comfortably play 100-200 full time. Assuming I'm good enough to survive there, which isn't of course guaranteed.
3) Quit poker entirely and focus on surviving the hustle most people are trying to do.

I prefer number 2, but I think I need a few weeks to figure out how to achieve that, or more like assessing if that is even achievable for me within the next year or so. If I can't figure out a plan for that, then I'll have to make some decisions.

What is ur non poker income

Depends on how much I put hours into it. Never more than 4k euro a month after taxes in this country in my field.

Doing what

Hustling 😃

OK so been decided. I will quit poker for now, but I have the option of continuing later. I liked the journey, but the reality is that I'm not mentally good enough to pursue this as a profession, so better for me to try to find a job as a fork lift driver or a truck driver or whatever. However, thanks for everyone who read and commented on this thread!

Final graph since the beginning of the blog.

U prefer doing the side hustle stuff over playing poker?

U could easily make more than 4k euros a month playing poker. You have access to mega lol soft fenced off site + other sites.. Easily enough volume to grind pro plus obvious from ur giraffes u have the talent.

But like if the sidehustle stuff is more fun than poker then just drop teh pokerz.

Cheers mate! I just think I need some time to fix my finances and mindset so that taking shots more aggressively would feel more comfortable. I actually feel kind of embarrassed to be still playing something like 10NL. The whole stake is a next level shit show, which anyone with a brain could probably tell by just seeing these graphs.

To be honest, I'm so obsessed with studying and getting better at this game that I don't think I can truly quit after all the effort and volume I've put in so far. During the last few months, I think my game or at least the knowledge of the game has taken pretty big leaps forward. Not that I really know all the time what the equilibrium would do in each spot, more like giving almost zero fucks about it, and trying to think what actual humans playing against me are thinking and doing. That's what I've mostly been doing before as well, but I think I'm way more "educated" about it now.

A lot of my most recent studies haven't been just doing some reviews with the Wizard, Pio, or whatever, more like trying to think how actual people are probably playing, and then node locking that kind of assumed behavior. Seeing more in depth how absolutely haywire a lot of solver exploits look like has made me think I'm actually allowed to go haywire as well. Those 10-20 NL regs aren't paying that much attention anyways to make it too expensive for me. Sometimes that can turn into a punt, but punts can be turned into lessons, and not worrying about making mistakes makes playing more fun, and often more profitable as well.

But yeah thanks for your comment anyways, I'll have to figure out some stuff now 😃

Any change your nickname starts with U and ends with W?

Not me

Ok so another month behind. Been just having fun the last few days, playing relaxed and not stressed out about future poker goals or the lack of them. Still looking for some additional side hustles outside of poker, but in the meanwhile, why not just open a few tables and let people continue spazzing. A bit of run good always helps as well.

Start of the month has been... swingy. OK of course, but it's been a while since it felt like every 100 hands or so there have been several large pots going in one direction or the other. Last two or three days been playing like a maniac, intentionally. Literally like with an attitude that I'm going to smoke everyone else out of every single pot, like I don't have time or patience to wait for good hands. Over exaggerated, but something like that. Been just feeling whimpy or tunnel visioned the last few weeks or months, and just decided this needs to end at least for now, let's make the red line great again.

Volume has been low of course, but the fact that I now know I'm getting a decent paycheck from outside of poker shortly makes me feel a bit more confident that I can take more BR risks and see how curb stomped I'll get at 50 in the near future.

And BTW about 35% of the original challenge now completed.