Female flight crew suspected of auto-piloting at 1/3
Played this hand last night. Not sure if my decisions needed more thought. Would appreciate opinions of both the decisions and the thoughts behind them...
1/3, $100-$500 BI. 9-handed. Parx Philly, Friday evening. Rake is 10% of pot up to a max of $5 with $2 drop for BBJP and high hand. BBJP is up to $75k, high hand promo is a mystery envelope worth $500, $1k, or $2500.
V - he's white, late 20's-early 30's. Ex-Navy. Has a bushy hipster beard, somewhere between Oak Ridge Boys and ZZ Top length.
V position - He's HJ or CO.
V stack size - Not sure of his stack depth because he's got two stacks of 35-ish chips with a mix of denominations from $1 to $100, haphazardly arranged. I glanced over before 3B'ing and guestimated he had around $650, but it may have been closer to $800.
**Possibly relevant side-note - V pulled the last $2500 envelope a couple hours earlier after flopping quads and scooping a ~$300 pot. So he's up close to, if not a little more than $3k, with $2500 stuffed in his pocket. He's basically free-rolling the game.**
Read 1 - he initially sat down on my immediate right, and was clearly uncomfortable with his position / results, commenting more than once he wanted to change seats. About two hours into the session he moved two seats to his right. He started out playing TAG, as far as I could tell, not getting OOL. Mostly playing raise-or-fold pre, and kind of ABC post.
I did spot one clear pattern over multiple hands early in the session - V would raise pre, get 1 or 2 callers, but would not c-bet the flop, either IP or OOP, on high-card boards that would seem to smash his range as the PFR. The flop and turn would check through, and he'd fold to an opponent's river bet. 2 or 3 of those hands, I won at showdown with something like 2nd pair, meh kicker. He definitely noticed I called his pre-flop raise light.
Read 2 - later in the session (post quads), he's clearly more comfortable in his new seat, and has obviously loosened up (possibly from being up around $3k). He's now c-betting more flops as the PFR, but not double or triple barreling off at a high frequency. I've been showing him some pretty meh but still winning hands in spots where he fired once or twice before giving up. More 2nd pair type stuff. I'm guessing he's value-heavy when he barrels off.
More noticeably, he's been calling pre-flop raises light, and floating c-bets wide. If the flop checks through, he'll stab turns a lot from OOP, and sometimes barrel rivers with both air and some SDV. I haven't seen him stab much from OOP on rivers when the turn checks through, but when he's IP, he'll sometimes bluff river if action checks to him, both with air and SDV, like 3rd/4th pair.
I've snapped him off a couple times in these spots, with the same sort of hands mentioned above - 2nd pair, meh kicker, in spots where he wasn't likely to have a very strong hand. He's probably noticed I was opening wide and making good hero calls. It's probably annoying him.
Hero - early 50's WG. Around $700 to start this hand, up-stuck from the high point of $1200-ish after getting my money in good but getting sucked out on. Otherwise, I've mostly been low-effort coasting, just catching cards and running over the table the past few hours, especially the last few orbits, abusing some rec-fish who joined the game and are donating every hand. It's very likely everyone is tired of my $hlt, based on the table talk. I'm SB or BB.
OTTH...
PRE - folds to V in HJ or CO. V $15. Folds to hero in SB or BB with QdQc. H 3B's to $60. Action back on V. V thinks a few seconds, semi-shrugs, and calls.
Thoughts in game - V's loosened up. He could be opening light. He could be tired of my $hlt, and calling light. Standard 3B size OOP is 4x, so I made it 4x. If he doesn't 4B me, I'm ruling out AA/KK and assigning him a range of PP's QQ or lower + whatever he thinks is playable enough to open from LP and call my 3B.
Auto-piloting (?) - I didn't make much effort to determine his stack size, or think about possibly 3B'ing larger. Didn't range him with very much specificity.
FLOP - ($120) - Jc5s4s. We have $640 behind.
H x. V x.
Thoughts in game - he's unlikely to have AA/KK. He'll likely bet big with JJ, less big with AJ/KJ, possibly stab for a small to middling size with TT-77, and maybe stab a similar size with his FD's and un-paired over-card combos. Let's check and give him a chance to tell us what he has with his action / bet size.
Auto-piloting (?) - no thought given to manipulating the SPR towards getting stacks in, or how often he's going to stab with different parts of his range. No consideration of possibly c-betting for value, to target the parts of his range that will call, but may not always bet if we check.
TURN ($120) - Jc5s4s 6c, adding a BDFD. Still $640 behind.
H $140. V thinks maybe 10 seconds, then calls.
Thoughts in game - doubtful he's got JJ or JX when he checks back flop. It seems at least somewhat unlikely he's getting here with many combos that are now 2P+, so the 6c seems like a brick, other than making it more possible for me to have a draw that just picked up a bunch of equity. Time to start building the pot with an over-bet, targeting 77-TT, and all his draws.
Auto-piloting (?) - still no thought about river SPR, leading to lazy (?) over-bet sizing. No time spent considering a bigger over-bet size. Not much thought given to how much of V's range is likely to call an over-bet, or what it means if / when he does call. No attempt to narrow his range at all or weight it one way or another.
RIVER ($400) - Jc5s4s6c Jh. We have $500 back.
H thinks a few seconds and checks. V looks surprised, like he was expecting me to bomb it, then quickly bets $200 using two black chips. Hero goes into the tank.
Hero?
Thoughts in game - not sure if the Jh is a good or bad card. Obviously it sucks if he has AJ/KJ and just sucked out. But if he's got 77-TT that was being stubborn, it's now less likely I have JX, so he should like this card. He might think I'm giving up or just trying to get to showdown with AK or some lower PP if I check. He might bet for some thin value with those hands, whereas those hands might start over-folding if I bet again. All his draws that aren't JX just bricked, and won't call if I bet, so checking lets him bluff at it or go for thin value with a lower PP.
Auto-piloting (?) - no consideration of other actions, like blocking, bet-folding, or b10-b20. No attempt to narrow or weight his range in any way, towards possibly finding a value bet rather than checking. No thought given to what my plan was if he bombs it.
I can auto pilot too.
I, when not auto-piloting, would have cbet flop and bet turn.
I think x/c river is probably our best play at this point after the flush draws that were present on turn have now missed.
Super long post
Pre: I would probably make it a little bigger, especially from the big blind. I’m probably going 75
Flop: I think check is fine, especially when we expect V to overstab
Turn: Bigger is better. What hands call 140 but fold to 175? I would like to set up a smaller SPR for the river
River: V probably doesn’t have much Jx after checking flop. I would probably just jam myself. As played, I call
PF is standard. Don't like the check on the flop. Pretty unlikely the villain smashed the flop, but can collect money from the villain not believing you have an over pair because they put you on AK.
Turn bet is overkill. Going to be hard for anything you beat to call. As for the river, I'd rather bet whatever you'd call.
I like the term ‘autopilot’ and I was referring to this in another post. It’s vital to have a structured, repeatable thought process, because the mind will chase after other things
It’s not as easy as it sounds, because there are so many distractions. I understand the flop check, because nobody hits that flop - it’s a great bluff candidate, but you have value.
They call 3Bets more than they should and after that, they’re not folding to a flop bet. I really don’t care what he has, this is like having a set - villain can’t see that he’s behind and will make mistakes.
I really dislike giving a FreeCard on that turn, because if villain didn’t have something before, he might have something now. Maybe the thought process should go, “let’s bet, and let villain tell me what he has”
Villain doesn’t know - but hero should know that checking the flop and bombing the turn is one of the most underbluffed lines in poker. Without a jack or better, I’m folding.
You under-repped your hand and have to call river. Villain is putting you on AJ, he thinks you hit the river - so sure he’s surprised with your check. He was likely getting ready to fold and then you told him you don’t have a jack.
One of your bigger reads is that he doesn't bluff much ... not even cbetting boards that are good for his range etc.
Also not obvious if he can have AA/KK here.
Given that, checking with value seems bad. He's not bluffing, so you need him to have worse value that wants to bet. If you bet and he raises at any point then it's an easy fold. If it checks through flop and an A/K hits turn your hand is much worse and V is less likely to call with 99.
Also betting 60 flop/120 turn gets more money in, and looks less scary than your check flop / overbet turn line. Can probably bet a bit bigger too, like 80 flop and 180 turn. If you did this I don't even mind betting half pot or so on this bad river.
As played I sigh call river, he might decide you have AK and be betting 99 or whatever enough of the time. Given reads it might still be closer to a fold though.
Bet flop. You have an overpair. Why let V draw for free with Ax and Kx and two spades?
Why overbet the turn? Is hero trying to set up a river shove?
I’m folding the river without a really good read. Your hand is a bluff catcher.
One of your bigger reads is that he doesn't bluff much ... not even cbetting boards that are good for his range etc.Also not obvious if he can have AA/KK here.Given that, checking with value seems bad. He's not bluffing, so you need him to have worse value that wants to bet. If you bet and he raises at any point then it's an easy fold. If it checks through flop and an A/K hits
Only to clarify the reads...
I've seen him stab on the river when action checks to him IP. Not always, but at least a few times in the past few hours. Also seen him stab turns OOP when the flop checked through.
I haven't seen him stab river enough to know if he only does it when the turn also checked through and action checks to him again, or only when his hand has absolutely no SDV, or if he only does it with SDV, possibly thinking he's betting for thin value, or not realizing he's turning SDV into a bluff.
It seemed to me that he was more likely to get aggro on later streets as the PFC when the PFR slowed down and checked, and more likely to take his SDV and pot control on later streets as the PFR. I chalked that up to his range not having enough bluffs when he was the one driving the betting pre and on the flop, and too many draws or weak value when he was doing a lot of calling pre and on the flop. It seemed like he was doing a lot of light floating with the intention of stealing the pot with late street aggression.
So, from OOP, I thought the exploit would be to donk turns and rivers with value when he was the PFR and driving the betting pre and on flop, and check value as the PFR, when he was more likely to stab as the PFC.
Bet flop. You have an overpair. Why let V draw for free with Ax and Kx and two spades?
Why overbet the turn? Is hero trying to set up a river shove?
I’m folding the river without a really good read. Your hand is a bluff catcher.
I checked flop because I think he may 4B AK pre at some frequency. We double block AQ/KQ. His AX and KX combos would be weighted towards AJ/KJ or worse. AJ/KJ/A5/A4 are drawing to 5 outs. AT/KT and worse are drawing to 3.
Even if an A or K comes out, we could have him out-kicked. He isn't likely to want to play a huge pot with TP3K or worse.
He just doesn't have that many AX or KX to be worried about giving a free card, unless he's RFI'ing and calling 3B's with a ton of trashy AX and KX combos. Is he really showing up post flop with A6s and K4s type stuff? And if so, does he never start a bluff with a draw to the NF or 2NF?
If he has JXss, I think he bets. If he has JJ with or without a spade, I think he bets. I think he bets AJ/KJ.
Although he was calling opens wide, l don't think he's calling my 3B super-wide when he tank-calls, such that he's got a ton of spade draws that would check back here. Maybe he's got AQ/AT/KQ/KT and a handful of other two spade combos that were strong enough to open for a raise and also call the 3B.
I think he bets AQss and KQss. He may fold KTs to the 3B pre. He may fold ATs pre, or bet it here. It's probably not more than 2-3 total combos of naked flush draws that take the free card.
Meanwhile he can have 6 combos each of every PP from TT down to wherever his cut off is for calling the 3B to set-mine. All those combos are drawing to 2 outs. He may bet them for value and protection. If he checks back, they'll probably call a big turn bet.
His check back caps him at 1P or a weak draw. I over-bet turn to target his inelastic 1P and draws.
I wouldn't call our hand a bluff catcher. We're close to top of range.
We beat all his worse pairs that he may bet thin. We only lose to a few combos of JX, and maybe some fairly unlikely combos of AA/KK that slow-played pre, or 66, 55, 44, 87, 73, and 32 that made a very light call pre. I'd think some of those would raise turn, rather than risk an action killing river card.
When we 3B pre, something like 99 or TT would be a bluff-catcher, because we're not 3B'ing worse, and thus can't rep anything that connects with the lower cards on this run-out. We'd be at the absolute bottom of our range, because we can have QQ+ and some JX.
This actually seems like a reasonable spot to bluff catch. V doesn't have very many strong hands in range, but he's got a ton of worse value and busted draws.
If you want to auto-pilot this river decision, think: "I took a line that induces bluffs and villain bet half pot, so I call."
I think I would bet this flop. Would rather X with the Qs. As played, I think the turn ob is good on the double FD board and the river is an extremely easy call when we check river.
white, late 20's-early 30's. Ex-Navy. Has a bushy hipster beard, somewhere between Oak Ridge Boys and ZZ Top length.
Given the beard length and trim, I now say call the river if hero ever saw V bluffing. I overlooked this detail.
Why do you say he’s HJ or co? Why can’t you just pick one?
Call river when double flush draws and straight draws missed and he didn’t stab jack high flop.
Trying to understand your thoughts.
It appears that in the name of keeping villains range wide, you check or bet small hoping to squeak out a little more value.
But in doing so, you miss out on the way we win in this game - aggression
Not provoking you, just trying to understand you. You have looked weak-tight to me in a couple of posts and I don’t think you fancy yourself that way.
I respect your detailed posts and hope we’re past the saber rattling and arguing. I’m sincerely trying to learn. There may be a balance between keeping villain’s range wide and using aggression that’s not clear to me.
If I've said it once I've said it 1000x, raise more pre. :O
But I don't mind the way you played the hand..I'm also checking river to check-call. We have a ton of hands that want to check river.
Why do you say he’s HJ or co? Why can’t you just pick one?
Call river when double flush draws and straight draws missed and he didn’t stab jack high flop.
I was in seat 2. He was in seat 8. If he was HJ, then I was SB. If he was CO, then I was BB. It was one or the other. I just remember being in one of the blinds.
Well played.
But I don't mind the way you played the hand..I'm also checking river to check-call. We have a ton of hands that want to check river.
Agreed. Though we'd either be checking to check call or check fold, and I wonder if this is a board texture where opponents won't bluff or bet thin often enough to play it as a check.
Preflop: I prefer a bigger bet to reduce his IO
Flop: 1/2 PSB given that our QQ needs protection. I'm not a fan of the x without the Qs .
Turn: I like the polar sizing after the flop x with 2 FDs on board
River: I think the Jh is a good card for us. The FDs have busted. 54s is counterfeited. X turns our hand into bluffcatcher. But V has less value to target with the Jh falling, so I'm not sure what a bet accomplishes. We are WAWB.
You have induced, now call getting 3-1. If he has it, you are getting off the hook cheaply here.
Trying to understand your thoughts.It appears that in the name of keeping villains range wide, you check or bet small hoping to squeak out a little more value.But in doing so, you miss out on the way we win in this game - aggressionNot provoking you, just trying to understand you. You have looked weak-tight to me in a couple of posts and I don’t think you fancy yourself that wa
I do a lot of checking from OOP when HU as the pre-flop aggressor.
In theory, our opponents are supposed to check back a lot when we check to them as the PFR. But in reality, they tend to over-stab when we don't c-bet. When they stab, they often telegraph their hand strength with their bet sizing, and they don't tend to protect their check back range by checking back strong hands.
This tendency to stab when checked to does a few things for us.
When we have a nutted hand that benefits from check raising, we get to check raise. When we have a draw, we can see if our opponent bets, and what size, before we start a bluff. If they check back, we get a free card. When we have a hand that plays well as a bluff catcher, we give them a chance to bluff. When we have a hand that may only be worth two streets of value, we can still get two streets, and possibly get a third, if V stabs and barrels.
Conversely, opponents will slow play more when they're IP and we bet from OOP. If V flopped a set here, he's not likely to raise our c-bet. He's more likely to wait until we bet again. He may wait until the river, to ensure he gets max value when he's nutted.
If we bet and he's completely whiffed, he'll fold. If we check, he might stab, and possibly barrel. If we bet and he has a low equity draw or some thin SDV, he may over-fold, expecting us to bomb brick turns. But if we check, he may semi-bluff with his draws, or bet his thin SDV value for some protection.
Checking from OOP disguises our hand strength, makes it harder for us to over-play our hand, and puts pressure on our opponents to find the highest EV response.
If we want to c-bet, we have to decide if we're range betting, or splitting our range into a checking range and a betting range. We have to decide which value hands and which bluffs to put into those two ranges, in order to not be face up. We also have to decide which hands to bet big, and which to bet small, or if we're only going to have one bet size. We have to decide what our small bet size will be, and what our big bet size will be, or what that one bet size will be. We have to decide what to do if we get raised.
Even good players will struggle to be balanced with their c-bets from OOP if they're splitting their ranges and sizes. Most won't adequately protect their checking range. That range will almost always be weaker than their c-bet range.
When I see someone who appears to c-bet from OOP close to 100%, I know they're over-bluffing. If I see them c-betting at a low frequency, I know they're under-bluffing. It's easy to exploit them by over-calling, over-folding, or over-bluffing. I get concerned when I think someone is checking range from OOP, because they can be checking with all their strong hands.
So my default is to range check from OOP and range bet from IP. I'll deviate and do something different when I see clear reasons to take a different line.
For me to c-bet here, I'd have to think V wouldn't stab with worse if I check, but will raise with better if I bet, yet won't raise as a bluff. He'd have to be a "special" sort of V who plays entirely face-up.
I'm not worried about opponents checking back too often, because it just doesn't happen at a high enough frequency. They'll bet for value, or protection, or as a bluff much more often than they'll check back. When they check back, it's much more likely they have a weak hand, which helps me decide what to do on the turn.
Like, in this hand, when he raised and called my 3B pre, I assigned him a fairly wide range of QQ (1 combo), JJ (3 on flop, 1 on river), 66-TT (30 combos), some AXs, possibly all AXs, KQs to K9s, QJs/QTs, JTs, and maybe SC's from T9s down to 54s.
If that's his range, I don't need to be too worried about him betting or checking back. If he bets I can call, knowing I'm usually ahead, and can re-evaluate on future streets. If he checks it back I can make a delayed c-bet on most turns, expecting to have the best hand.
When the flop checks through, I get to bomb it on the turn, knowing he's capped. He can't fold his 1P hands, because I could be bluffing, and his draws will have to pay a steep price to continue. If I just monkey-bet flop and he calls, I don't know what to do on the turn with my non-nutted value or my bluffs, because I didn't give him a chance to tell me what he has with his flop action.
Preflop: I prefer a bigger bet to reduce his IOFlop: 1/2 PSB given that our QQ needs protection. I'm not a fan of the x without the Qs .Turn: I like the polar sizing after the flop x with 2 FDs on boardRiver: I think the Jh is a good card for us. The FDs have busted. 54s is counterfeited. X turns our hand into bluffcatcher. But V has less value to target with the Jh falling, s
Agreed I could go bigger pre. Also think I could go bigger on the turn.
Don't think c-betting this flop with our hand vs this V is the highest EV play.
I generally hate check-calling rivers. Not sure if it makes more sense to bet-fold here, when we only have 1.2x pot behind, which goes back to my sizing pre and on turn. I think this could have been an easy jam for pot or less if I'd planned ahead more.
Your check flop/bomb turn/check river doesn't strike fear into the mind of an opponent. I'd suggest this is a two street board for QQ, and a river bet somewhere near the £200 you're facing makes it his decision not ours.
Population tendency stuff - he has a lot of missed flushes that will stab river and he also has a lot of smaller pocket pairs.
I think you' ve under-repped your hand enough to justify a call here.
Your check flop/bomb turn/check river doesn't strike fear into the mind of an opponent. I'd suggest this is a two street board for QQ, and a river bet somewhere near the £200 you're facing makes it his decision not ours.
Population tendency stuff - he has a lot of missed flushes that will stab river and he also has a lot of smaller pocket pairs.
I think you' ve under-repped your hand enough to justify a call here.
Reveal:
Spoiler
Because I'd seen V turn SDV into a bluff, and he has so many missed draws, and so few thick value hands, I begrudgingly flicked in the call, not really loving it, and somewhat expecting to see him roll over AJss.
V shows KJdd. I was a bit surprised he had that exact hand. I'd think if he's going to call my 3B pre with KJs, he'd stab at the flop with TP2K when I check and there are two spades on board.
I'd have snap-called if he bet $175 or less. I'd have folded if he bet $225 or more. I didn't like it because low stakes opponents just tend to have it when the absolute size of the bets get big, regardless of the bet size relative to the pot.
If I could have this one back, I'd like to 3B to $75 pre, and over-bet 1.5x pot on the turn, to set up an easy river jam of $400 into $600. I don't think he's folding for another $15 pre, or releasing a strong TP to less than 2x pot on turn.
I'm going to assume $700 effective.
I suck at deep, but I typically like to offer poor 8:1 IO, although that would mean a hugenormous raise to like $100, which likely isn't going to get action from worse. So with these deeper stacks and OOP, I might prefer to setup a more playable SPR. A "standard" 3x of $45 sets up an SPR of a bit over 7; not stupendous, but does give us some postflop wiggle room. A smaller 3bet to like $40 gives us even more playability at SPR ~8. And with no other dead money in the pot or anyone else to deny equity from (or even in the SB and wanting a fishy BB along for the ride), I think we could actually consider just flatting here (although I'll be massively outvoted on that). So I actually don't like our inbetweenish large sizing, as it reduces the SPR to an extremely awkward ~5 and yet offers ~non horrendous IO of ~16:1; I actually think this is probably the worst sizing we could have chosen, but that's imo. FWIW, I know "standard" is 4x OOP, but the fact that this method doesn't take into account stack sizes / SPR (one of the most important pieces of information that all our decisions should revolve around) makes it a fairly useless method, again imo.
So SPR ~5 OOP having given ~non horrendous IO preflop. Prolly my least favourite spot in poker. I'm fine just checking and seeing what happens or betting small to protect against random overs.
I know you're a fan of huge turn bets, but to me it's counter to what we're attempting to do (or, at least what I'm attempting to do). At this SPR / offered IO, I'm not looking to play for stacks (which is a big reason I checked the flop). And yet here we are putting them in play with this overbet on the turn. I mean, yeah, I guess we're a little more comfortable changing our commitment decision thanks to his flop action, but some things did get there and overall it still seems counter to our (my?) goal. So I'd mostly bet a reasonable bet that doesn't bring stacks into play, or perhaps continue checking to induce.
Great river card for Villain to bluff all his busted draws on (of which there are many), so easy check/call for me.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Passive play can also easily win money (in a game where winning money is much more important than winning hands). Notice how Villain's passive check back on the flop with TP (something I would guess you would never do?) got pretty much everyone in this thread (including me) to happily check/call the river. Sure, he got extremely lucky to move ahead on the river against Hero's particular holding, but I'm also guessing this passive checkback could have easily induced Hero to also overbet turn with AK/etc. and punt into a disguised TP, all thanks to villain playing deceitfully passively on the flop. And on top of all that, perhaps villain passively played the flop because he couldn't really think of too many worse hands that Hero is going to call of 3 postflop street for stacks with (and he's right).
Sometimes the most aggressive route is clearly best. Sometimes the most passive route is. And sometimes it's probably pretty close and you could choose either one for various solid reasons. IMO.
GcluelessaggropassivenoobG
I'm going to assume $700 effective.I suck at deep, but I typically like to offer poor 8:1 IO, although that would mean a hugenormous raise to like $100, which likely isn't going to get action from worse. So with these deeper stacks and OOP, I might prefer to setup a more playable SPR. A "standard" 3x of $45 sets up an SPR of a bit over 7; not stupendous, but does give us some
I like your thoughts about manipulating our 3B size towards better post-flop SPR management. I think that's something I should be thinking about more.
I think your style of play is likely to be lower variance, but at the cost of not maximizing EV. I'm always trying to bloat the pot and get stacks in whenever I fare to have the best hand.
If we play this spot 100 times, I think we'll average far more over-betting turn than we will betting a "reasonable" size, which I take to mean something between 1/2 and full pot.
We were around a 90% favorite on the turn against his exact hand. I'd think we'd be a bigger favorite against his likely range. If we can get an over-bet called by most of his range, we're printing.
