PMFHWM at 1/3/6/20

Second to act with AJo facing a UTG raise? Fold. Cool thread.

I presume you didn't start this thread to say that you folded, though...

Playing a 50BB max BI game is essential not to make fundamental preflop mistakes. Stay disciplined, don’t be lazy and just fold this hand.

Hero reluctantly folds thinking, "damn, I didn't get to play my favorite hand this time."

I am always dubious of VPIP percentages in threads on this forum, but I will bite: have you looked at what the top ten percent of hands are on a NLHE chart? AJo is ahead of maybe one combo.

If villain is positionally aware, and ranges are tighter, the picture gets extremely dire.

I guess it's possible that villain has just been card dead for a couple hours and is actually looser than we think, but that's a pretty big assumption to make in order to take such a marginal spot.

In theory as you add more blinds everyone should play tighter. This is a weird setup though given the 20 is 3.33x the next blind instead of 2x.

Although it doesn't actually matter here as AJo is probably a fold LJ vs. LJ-1 at 100bb with 2 blinds.

Amusingly with 1 straddle and 100bb AQo finds some folds in HJ vs. MP.

Definitely don't call. It's okay to fold. Only because we might suspect he over-folds to 3B's, I could see a case for re-raising.

I think we're firmly in StreetLand (vs Solverland), but you've zero idea of how V plays post-flop. What does 'tank-call a 3! OOP,' in this weird AF format say to you?

I wonder whether V's trying to get more value with their normally 4!-shove range? I don't think you're going to get a fold vs his range at 60 straddles in a 3bp, on a KQ6ss board. Maybe he folds TT, JJ (which you block)? As V, and trying to get you to put more $ in, I'm shoving AK/AQ vs you over any bet on this flop. So, I'm feeling like checking back here as H.

It's just too shallow to try and be clever here.

Check in position. There are a lot of good cards for you.

If you’re V you open AQ, get 3b and crai on KQ6ss? That’s wild.

Disliked your losing decision to 3bet, but now going to play the best that we can given the situation. 3b pot EP v EP against reg not getting OOL range preflop this board will favor us given top-end advantage AK/AA/KK/QQ and he should not have KQo, we are allowed to high-frequency small bet. Vs reg here would play this spot as betting 1/4 for 75, this is an efficient bluff snap-folding out TT-88 and possibly some 77 frequency - and pushes JJ into indifference territory. Additionally we will get some calls from worse hands AThh/JTsuited, and block some of his natural c/r bluffs that force us out such as AJss/JTss. Still also have the gutter ball outs if called to threaten stacks. However, keep in mind that if he calls our cbet this does not give us cart le Blanche to YOLO triple-barrel off since once he A calls our EP 3b and B calls our cbet folding out his bottom-end portion the outstanding range will be fairly reasonable so proceed with some caution.

fold preflop - just learned to fold my favorite hand (55) in another post.

Just really hate the 3Bet
Several people behind you could have a hand and you don’t have much, no matter how much you like the hand. It might be dead bottom of range in a linear strategy, but no more than a call using a polarized strategy.

I think you are behind when that 3Bet gets called, but you didn’t get raised so I’m torn between either:
Pot the flop as a weak semi-bluff - villain is going to get out of the way unless he has hit the flop - hand over, take the dead money

Or take the FreeCard and evaluate the turn. Realize that villain may be emboldened by your show of weakness.

This is the first time this nit has called a 3Bet, how does that change things? This board hits villains range as much as yours in this scenario

I think you might end up wishing you folded preflop, but interested to see what happens next.

Flop: I don't see any reason not to bet small on KQx in a 3bet pot. You've got 60% of a Royal flush. It's happening. Perhaps lazy thinking but I'd assume 1/3 here is fine

I think that when we 3b and get this board vs a tight opponent, we probably need to bet flop, bet turn, and shove some draw-completing rivers.

Referring back to our read:

We've seen him raise-fold and raise-4B-jam vs 3B's pre. From the lack of a mention, I take it we haven't seen him raise-call a 3B pre? And we haven't seen him show down anything?

I mean...we're doing a fair bit of logical guesswork here. If he's TAG, I'd guess he's raise-4B-jamming top of range and raise-folding bottom of range, such that his raise-call would indicate he's somewhere in the middle of his range.

Since he's TAG and opened from MP in this whack-a$$ game, I'd think his opening range would be pretty strong already, like maybe 99+/KQs+. I'd be concerned not knowing how he'd play KK/QQ/AK/AQ facing a 3B pre, and what his cut-off is for folding.

Guessing that he's probably not folding much of his range pre, and only 4B-ripping it with KK+, I think there'd be some parts of his range that will fold if we choose to c-bet and barrel. He's probably going to start over-folding 99-JJ and maybe AJ/AT, but we block some of those combos.

If we're playing street poker, I think the best approach would be to c-bet small, like 1/3 pot or less, and then evaluate turn based on any tells we pick up and what the turn card is.

I'd be planning to over-fold if he x/r's flop or donks turn. If he check-calls flop, I'd be looking for logically strong reasons to bet or check back on the turn.

The crazy thing about this game is that it would probably be correct to stack off with KJ here, but if V understands that, and he's truly TAG, he's more likely to show up here with AK or better. It doesn't seem like a good situation to try to get a bluff through.

All the comments have been very good here. I would just add one observation about the V's range: Is it really capped here closing the action preflop?

Docvail makes a good case as to why the V is in the middle of his range. I'm not so sure given the positional situation. V will be oop postflop and would understand that he appears to be capping his range. But V is closing the action preflop. If I had AA/KK here, I would just flat call the 3b and let Banana blast off postflop.

Presumably OP has given some table image indications in 3 hours with V. V probably understands that OP can 3b preflop light sometimes.

Now perhaps I'm levelling. But I'm proceeding with extreme caution. I would rather have the As here to play aggro post flop.

So I'm checking the flop here with the idea of betting spade and brick turns if V x and of course hoping to bink the straight.

Bro, seriously, you can just type "Doc" and cut out four keystrokes.

Yes, I'm aware of the irony, given the length of some of my posts.

In my defense, I did say we were doing logical guesswork.

But that's often the case in Banana threads. We're often trying to guess the reveal based on his reads or detailed HH's in the OP, combined with some degree of trying to guess what V is thinking / doing based on what he may or may not have noticed Banana do, which is literally anyone's guess.

None of which is an argument against what you've said. You may be making correct inferences, or they could be incorrect despite seeming fairly reasonable. I hesitate to guess what my own opponents are thinking. I'll be damned if I'm going to speculate about what Banana's opponents may think, especially in this specific game.

Just the same, though -

Is he capped closing the action pre? F**k if I know, but I wouldn't want to argue he is. He might be playing possum here, at some frequency.

Where is V in his range? Seems reasonable he's in the middle of it, but we're guessing what that range is, based on Banana's description of V, and V's opinion of Banana.

Could V be higher in his range? Sure. Maybe. See above reference to animals with a reputation for feigning weakness.

Could V be giving Banana rope? Sure. Why not? But does V know what a "light" 3B from Banana is, in this game? See above, about what I know. V might think AK/AQ/KQ are all light 3B's.

I think proceeding with caution is fine, but I think we also have an incentive to continue our story of having a strong hand, even if we smell possum. Hence my thinking that we force V to decide how he wants to respond by making a small c-bet, and then evaluating what we want to do next based on what he does in response.

Working from the assumption that V may suspect Banana is prone to pre-flop shenanigans, I have to allow for the possibility that V may have called OP's 3B light, and there's a part of his range that will auto-fold to a c-bet, plus another part of his range that will check-call flop, looking to evaluate but mostly check-fold turn when unimproved.

I'm not trying to make V fold KX, and maybe not even QX here, if I'm Banana. I'd be trying to get him to fold 99-JJ, and deny some equity from some other hands, like AJ/AT. I'd hope we could get QX to fold by the river if we barrel. God help us if he shows up here with AK or better. I can't imagine he's folding.

We're not targeting a very wide range to fold. Hopefully Banana is wore his skinny jeans to this game, and can shimmy his way to victory.

Fold pre

But since we are here, bet 100, now what’s the turn?

Flop 300 - K♠ Q♠ 6♥

V checks, H 75, V takes over 2 minutes and then calls

Turn 450 - K♠ Q♠ 6♥ 8♠

V checks... 1025 back

EP vs. EP 3bet pot ... I don't think I'd ever check anything on KQ6.

Don't see why V can't have KK/QQ, but we can obviously have at least KK too (if we never call then QQ is more possible, but I doubt we never call).

Also as others said it's possible V has AA, esp. given the tank preflop. ... but is probably not happy with that on this flop.

If you bet 200 now, river pot is 1 SPR and he might fold a lot ... although maybe not vs. you 😉

I was literally just thinking that at this SPR, and against this particular V, we may want to pretend this is a 4BP and bet even smaller than 1/3 pot.

So...$75 seems better than $100. Now I'm wondering if even smaller would have been even better, especially given his excessive tank. I'm led to think a smaller bet may have induced him to go for an x/r with his nutted hands, and let us off the hook with minimal damage.

Now that we've gotten here this way - I think we can bet small again, for the same reasons, or check back, also for the same reasons. If we bet, I might make it $225-ish. Enough to not look too weak nor too bluffy, and not so small that we might induce V to attack perceived weakness or turn AsXx into a bluff.

I think we can get more of his 99-JJ to fold if we barrel. Additionally, he'll have some KX and maybe even some QX combos with no spade that won't like this card. I don't think he's going to have a ton of KQ in range, but if he does, he might fold if we barrel turn and river, though I'm not sure I'd have the courage to try and make him.

Obviously I'd like this spot much more if we had the As rather than the Js. I doubt he's folding AsKx or AsQx if he gets here this way with those hands. I can't imagine he folds AsAx. I guess we should expect AsJx and AsTx to continue. I'll be looking for a good spot to lay down in the parking lot if he's got AXss.

Alternatively, we could check back and pray we improve AND he checks to us again.

If by some chance we manage to improve on the river, by way of making a flush, or a straight, or spiking an ace, I don't think I'd go for thin value if V checks again. I'd feel compelled to bet on a J, because I don't think 3rd pair is any good, and I'm not expecting V to arrive on the river with AT and check it.

Part of my reasoning is that I suspect V could be sandbagging a monster here. If we sacrifice getting some thin value, I think that's balanced by the future EV to be gained from knowing what he has when he raises and calls our 3B pre, and the potential EV if he gets tilted seeing that we sucked out on him.

I kinda expect to read a reveal that hero jammed here. Might even be a little disappointed by any other decision, given OP's posting history. Now would be a heckuva time to suddenly find poker discipline.

Already preparing to give this hand at least 3 out of 5 Bananas on the Stupid Banana scale. If hero had ATo it would be a 4. Potting it on the flop and / or ripping it in on a brick river would push it to a 5.

If V shows up with 66 and mucks face up, I'm cashing in my retirement plans and buying a banana farm.

This is a spot where I think you really need to simplify your thinking.

Villain is tight, opening from EP and calling a 3-bet.

Banana has a borderline maniacal image (my assumption).

Flop nails tight ranges.

Check flop.

I don't think we're likely to get many folds on this flop. Yeah in theory a cbet is probably reasonable, but some simple old-school advice I once heard is don't bluff into tight recs when there are two or more Broadway cards on the flop.

So I'm folding pre and checking back flop. Checking back the flop isn't necessarily conceding the pot. We might be able to stack a tight player if we turn a straight. We also turn additional equity on spades, aces and jacks. I check back flop and consider going for a delayed cbet if checked to (on a lot of turns, probably just checking to realize equity on spade turns).

As played, after betting flop and turning a spade I'm probably checking back turn. It won't happen that often, but it would be a disaster to bet and face a check raise when we have this much equity. If we don't get there on the river and he checks again, we can still consider credibly bluffing river to represent something like AA KK or QQ that slowed down due to the spade.

Also, I wouldn't necessarily think he is weak due to the long tank. He might have been considering raising. Anyway that's my two cents.