missed value vs aggro reg
1/3 450 effective
Villain is a mid 40s asian guy. I'm pretty sure he's a reg who usually plays at a different room and I've played 3/5 with him at that room before. I'm sure he's winning at 1/3 and probably 3/5 too although that's obviously not saying much. I view him as TAG preflop but think he overstabs against weakness postflop. Months ago I called down a triple barrel with QQ on a K high board at the other casino 3/5 game and was good but he may not even remember that hand.
Previous hh this session I opened HJ got two fish in CO and BB call and he called button.
Flop 8 6s 4s
Checks to him and he stabs 50 for pot I call and fish with like 80 behind calls CO.
Turn T
Check, check and he says all in. This is washington state with 300 max bet and he has like 340 total so not quite all of it can go in.
I fold and fish tank calls with 78. River bricks out and he announces 1 pair and the fish wins. I saw a 3 flash from the bottom of his cards so I'm guessing he had pocket 33s and was bluffing with the gutter.
OTTH
V is 450 effecive
the fish who called with 78 was very bad and limping lots of hands. UTG limps and that fish limps as well in mp.
V goes 24 on the button.
I look at AcQd in the BB. This sizing from him is probably value heavy but I think AQo is too strong and hard to play 4 ways OOP as a flat. So I still think there is value in a 3bet here vs a button iso. I go 100 and the fish fold and he calls
So we are going to a flop like SPR 1.5
Flop (200)
Q T 6 rainbow
This flop is decent but also connects quite well with his 3bet calling range. He probably has TT 66 although he may fold 66 sometimes. He would 4 bet gii pre with QQ at some frequency but I wouldn't be surprised if he plays it as a flat sometimes as well. He's going to have KQs not sure but think he may call the 3bet with QTs and KJs as well sometimes although those hands may choose a smaller iso sizing as well as consider folding to 3bet given we aren't super deep.
I think I would default to just cbetting this flop with TPTK. However, I had already decided I was going to play passively against this villain and try to exploit my perception of his tendency to overstab vs checks. I also just watched a hungry horse video about playing 3bet pots out of position that was encouraging lots of checking so decided I would check range on this board.
I check and he checks back
Turn Jr (200)
check check
Interesting turn card Brings in AK as the nut straight. Initially I planned to valuebet most turn cards if the flop checked through. But AK gets brought in and now AQ is actually one of the worst possible hands I can have here other than KQ or 99. He may expect me to bet a lot of my strong value hands on the flop so it looks a lot like I have AK and may be hard to get value. so I opt to check again. Maybe I should just lead now and try to charge his underpairs, T9s type hands that have straight draws
River 5r (200)
At this point his hand looks a lot like underpairs that just gave up. I decided I need to try to get some value and get a crying call so I lead 100.
6 Replies
Think I would have just gone bet-bet-bet.
I question whether his tendency to over stab applies to 3-bet pots against perceived tight 3-bettors. My suspicion is that he is attacking perceived weakness/unbalanced checks/ give ups, mostly in SRPs, and that tendency to over stab wouldn't apply as much here.
A lot of how this hand plays out hinges on the perceived ranges after he iso raises then calls your 3-bet. Those ranges are hard for any of us to nail down without having been there to understand the gameplay dynamics.
I probably would have just bet flop with an aim to GII. Your hand was strong, but vulnerable to being drawn out on or to action killing cards.
As played the turn jack is a pretty horrible card for your exact hand, but is probably neutral to good for your range. Your turn check was probably fine. On the river I probably bet smaller the way the hand played out, like $50 or so.
Flop SPR looks to be 1.75 here. Personally my approach on this flop if I was try-harding against a reg would be to bet huge % of my range for 80 (40%) given our top-end advantage AA/KK/QQ/KQo, betting this combo 100% setting up a clean turn jam of .75 SPR on many different turns. This flop sizing is going to force V to continue with Qx/Tx/broadway/SD, puts hands like 76s/65s into tough spot if he has these some freq, and folds out middling PP but not a bad result for overall range - 20 combos alone from AK/KJs. My concern w/ the flop check for deception is that a lot of middle strength/showdown hands from V i.e. AJs/ATs/JTs/KTs/T9s are incentivized to play
checks some of the time to get to showdown, and we are missing out ch/ch flop line when they will always be forced into calling if we bet the flop. The advantage of the flop check would be to occasionally get V to spazz w/ PP below TT or say A5s, but realistically don’t expect players in this 3b config to mostly stab the middling PP.
Can have different flop sizing strategies but bottom line here is it should involve a lot of bets and our exact hand very incentivized to bet flop/jam turn many run-outs.
I question whether his tendency to over stab applies to 3-bet pots against perceived tight 3-bettors. My suspicion is that he is attacking perceived weakness/unbalanced checks/ give ups, mostly in SRPs, and that tendency to over stab wouldn't apply as much here.
I think this is very astute analysis and I overcooked not thinking properly about how to apply his stabbing tendency in different configurations/boards. I think you are probably right that SRPs with unbalanced checking ranges are more likely to be attacked.
It probably doesn't look like I'm going to fold much because even my whiffs on this board have equity and are likely to call flop
I like it all the way around. This guy clearly does not play ranges, barreling with 33 on that texture, so I agree with your assessment to just let him valueown himself with whatever on literally any given board when you flop well like this.
In my experience, when they check flop and bet turn, it’s time to fold, but you checked turn too? I like hungry, but betting flop and checking turn would work better for me. I don’t check the turn with value often, but this would be the time - see if aggro stabs.
As played, when he checks back the flop, he has nothing - now you know.
I don’t think he’s calling thin value on the river
Personally, I think it’s always a mistake to hit the board and not bet the flop. You will get far more calls than betting turn or river. People call AK, little pairs and the like that would fold on later streets.
People call flop bets with a very wide range and you want that call with value. I understand the concept of ‘letting v bet for you’ and I do this at times, but most of the time it’s a mistake not to put the money in ourselves at low stakes.
I’ve seen the video and checking flop and turn gives villain the opportunity to stab. It makes sense. When aggro checks and remains passive, he has nothing to pay you off with.
O well
But don’t pass up the flop with value. That’s the hopeful street where villain sees lots of possibilities. By the turn, ranges narrow, less outs to draw to, and the bets get bigger.
