𝘿𝙀𝙀𝙋 1/2, big flop gets checkraised
1/2 at TCH Austin last Thursday I think? Villain is a MAWG native New Yorker, and by that I mean he moved to Fort Lauderdale. He has a Knicks hat that is more than one week old. He got his money by catching a huge punt from a drunk guy who decided to fire barrel after barrel at his KK with QJo. I, meanwhile, got my big stack from halving a monster double-board PLO bomb pot, so we're not exactly in awe of each other's prowess. At the time of the hand, I probably had at least $800 and he easily covers.
Hand history: coincidentally I have J♦ 10♦ and limp along after a couple of limps, then someone raised to $15 — honestly don't remember if it was him or not — and I hung around because pot odds. Flop was a nothingburger but it did have the 9♦. I checked intending to fold but V made a baby bet at it, like $25 into a pot that had to be at least $60 or $75, so I called with devious intentions. Turn was an 8 of no-flush; check, check. River Q and I led $55 and he called.
OTTH: This time I'm on the button with J♠ 10♠ and call a $15 early-position raise from a dude who claimed he was waiting for a 2/5 seat and was making schizo raises with stuff like K7o. But there are other callers around so the pot odds are delicious. V either calls from either a blind or limp-called from EP, don't quite remember.
Flop: ($75) 10♥ 8♠ 5♠
Checked to me, I bet $45, folds to V who checkraises to $135.
If I were shorter, it'd be an easy GII, but I'm not. What's my plan?
17 Replies
I think I might just make my life easier and overbet jam for the remain. A reasonable raise is going to be half your stack anyway.
The concept of calling pre for "pot odds" is a leak IMO. You basically always have the odds to call pre-flop in a multi-way pot, but it doesn't mean that calling is the best play, particularly when you are out-of-position.
In the first hand, I might ISO JTs over a couple of limpers, but I guess overlimping could be more viable in Texas. I would definitely prefer to XR flop over floating from OOP. As played, the river bet seems WAY too small.
In the second hand, I would squeeze preflop vs the guy that is opening K7o. As played, flatting flop in-position, planning to continue on virtually any turn versus an aggro opponent, seems pretty standard.
Yeah, 3B pre over the K7o dude's raise.
Your flop bet for value / equity denial is fine, but this is a board texture that I'd think gets x/r'd pretty frequently, especially when the PFR checks and we stab as one of the field callers. Especially in a "wild Texas game".
It might be helpful to remember how V got here pre flop. But maybe it doesn't change much.
His 3x raise size strikes me as FOS. I assume the action folded all the way back to us and we're now heads up?
I don't think it's terrible to 3B. We could also call and see what he does on the turn.
His line strikes me as a semi-bluff, perhaps with a combo draw that wouldn't mind getting it in on the flop, but might be less enthusiastic about getting it in on a turn brick.
It's certainly possible he flopped 2P or a set and will slow down on a draw completing turn, but I tend to think low stakes players raise bigger than 3x with strong but vulnerable hands.
I think we might get more clarity on the turn. So, call and see a turn.
At this point all you have is weak showdown value, so I don’t like a raise yet. Villain description sounds like a flop bluff looking strong and trying to take it down. A lot of bluffs take place on the flop.
But your call should look strong, so let’s see what card hits the turn and if he slows down. You having a draw, kinda blocks him also drawing, but he could easily have AT, KT, QT
Your semi-bluff jam might make villain fold and get you the dead money, but you’re still the one in position with the most options. By calling, you might win a few more bets or find a reason to save a few.
650-ish back with a call, right? Jamming seems a bit of an overplay with a non-nut draw and TP4K. Call, and pot'll be 345...
Again, I go back to Venice's point in the other DEEP thread about this V's tendencies. Has he shown aggression without actually having a hand? (The HH doesn't sound like it with the dinky stab.) Or has he been the usual passive fishy?
Peeling flop, and seeing what V does next. Not in a hurry to pile $$ in.
I think you can do almost anything and shrug about it, you have a decent amount of equity vs. anything and I would try not to hate my play if I just shoved it in here but saying that...
Solver probably isn't that helpful given it was 4 ways, but given you have showdown value I would guess that with position you should lean towards call more than raise. Also vs. a normal human I think V is heavily weighted towards very good hands now (you block Js9s/TsX so he has maybe 9s7s/7s6s, fewer NFD hands due to preflop and at least 6 combos. of sets), so you are behind with little fold equity.
Comparing to the HH given where "V bluffed" you: You betting almost 2/3 pot into 3 people and V x/raising from a position before the PFR is a very different thing from you checking along, and him betting whatever in position.
Like sometimes he can have whatever and decide you are just betting because you have the button and he doesn't want to x/c OOP etc. ... but I would guess more often he just has something and you want to see what happens on turns.
Didnt read the 2 paragraphs of basically irrelevant stuff. Fold pre or if they are really loose, 3b. Call is terrible
Flop: ($75) 10♥ 8♠ 5♠
Checked to me, I bet $45, folds to V who checkraises to $135 . . . Hero calls.
Turn: ($345) Q♦
V bets $175, I call.
River: ($695) 10♣
V tank-checks. Anyone want to go for thin value?
Flop: ($75) 10♥ 8♠ 5♠
Checked to me, I bet $45, folds to V who checkraises to $135 . . . Hero calls.
Turn: ($345) Q♦
V bets $175, I call.
River: ($695) 10♣
V tank-checks. Anyone want to go for thin value?
Went back and re-read the OP to see if there was enough info there to inform our decision here. Couldn't find any.
He's repping 2P/sets for value on the flop. His bluffs are obvious and all bricked, unless he's x/r'ing flop with QXss, like QJss or Q9ss maybe.
I mean...maybe he calls a bet with QJss, Q9ss, or 85. If he's a "check-raising all my TP" guy, then I doubt he's taking this line with worse TX just to fold on the river.
Hard to see what else he has here that will call a value bet. You only have around 70% pot remaining. Do you want to bet 10% pot and call a jam? If so, then do that.
Otherwise, just check back.
With a tank check, the first thing you have to decide is does he expect you to bet?
If he just hit a boat, he wants that check-raise, so don’t give it to him - check back
Or he’s realizing that his 2pair might not be enough.
This guy seems kinda tricky, but I think it all boils down to whether he sees you as a ‘you check, I bet person’ (and there’s a lot of those out there, probably even more in Texas) or he’s worried about his hand.
I hate missing value, but without a clear read of weakness, I check back. I wish I knew more of the circumstances of his KK hand. If he turns over a big pair that would have called a small bet, I will be pissed - but I don’t see it.
Sorry no replies. Cloudflare does not especially like me.
I didn't have any specific dossier on the dude, but his checkraise signaled strength to me that I didn't want to mess with, so I took the lower-variance option.
Flop: ($75) 10♥ 8♠ 5♠
Checked to me, I bet $45, folds to V who checkraises to $135, others fold, I call.
Turn: ($345) Q♦
Villain bets $175, I call.
River: ($695) 10♣
Villain tank-checks. Anybody up for some thin value?
Sorry no replies. Cloudflare does not especially like me.I didn't have any specific dossier on the dude, but his checkraise signaled strength to me that I didn't want to mess with, so I took the lower-variance option.Flop: ($75) 10♥ 8♠: 5♠:Checked to me, I bet $45, folds to V who checkraises to $135, others fold, I call.Turn: ($345) Q♦:Villain bets $175, I call.River: ($695) 10♣:Vi
I'd think the main combos we'd be able to target would be QXss, but when V x/r's, I'd think that would have to be some sort of combo draw like QJss or Q9ss, or a combo that could have raised pre, like AQss/KQss.
Otherwise we might be able to squeeze some value out of T9, which seems like a pretty thin x/r on the flop.
Like I said, it might help to remember how V got here.
There just aren't many combos he can have that are worse than ours and will call a value bet. And we could be crushed.
So, don't f**k around, or you might find out. Just check back.
Then again, if you want to f**k around, bet $70, and call if he raises up to $300. Fold if he jams.
You will definitely find out if you bet here.
Only 475 back on river, by my count. Not even b70, but it looks much different getting pushed over the line, fair.
I'm surprised OP skipped over the turn discussion. Not sure I feel like calling 175 to get 520, and having 475 then back with a non-nut draw. I like drawing to the nuts, the few times I've played deepish stack NL. Our top pair also maybe got nuked, and Qx is in the "Pretty!" set of hands that bad players love calling EP raises with. Albeit V 'shouldn't' be x-r without the Q being something like Q9/AQ/KQss.
Maaybe this is T8s, but there's only 1 of those, and if he's calling that he's calling 76s too pre. Tbh, I'm feeling a lot less happy about the flop call and I probably fold turn. Which means the flop call is likely bad.
Now ofc, making river trips, flush bricking and j9 not getting joined, yay. I'm content to x-back here, and that is why no one will ever know my name.
Things that make some sense:
- We beat and are folding: NFD/Ks9s/9s7s/7s6s
- We beat and might call: AsQs/KsQs/Qs9s/AA/KK/JJ ... 18 combos. 15 if you exclude JJ.
- We beat and are probably calling: T9 ... one combos. maybe?
- We lose and are calling: QQ/T8/88/55/J9 ... 26 combos. 13, assuming he isn't raising T8o/J9o in EP.
- We lose and are probably calling: AT/KT ... turn is sus for both, but I wouldn't be shocked for all 8 combos. on the other streets.
...ignoring everything else the most likely range of calls for lose vs. win are 15 vs. 13 combos. which doesn't seem like a bet.
Maybe a genius play is to bet 250 and then assume he's never bluffing, and never has worse, if we are raised.
I think I probably check, without some read, though.
Taking another look, I think it’s a mistake to bet the flop. You are charging yourself to draw.
If you hadn’t done that, it would be a lot easier with $75 in the pot on the turn.
As played, there’s a good chance he’s got a much better flush draw than you, so you could be lucky no spade came.
Because I think it’s unlikely you will get called, but you might get check-raised again with a better ten, I think I would check it down.