5/5 river decision with 88

Probably just flatting.

I think this is raise or fold spot

Probably just jam.

Why? If V is bluffing/betting the pair and straight draw we beat him. If not V called the raise on turn and our raise here is under pot size. It might fold out a 99 or TT that beat us but a lot more combinations call.

Um... I don't think V has much draws when we block 8x ourselves.

We beat clubs and that's it.

This seems like a value heavy line that's block/value betting river.

Donk/call then donk small.
But it also shows weakness.
I dont think sets take this line.
It's either Qx or weak 2p like 56 type hand imho.
Both are likely to fold to jam unless V has no fold btn.

Why not just flat turn? I guess you were planning to check back river unimproved? Anyway that's something to think about. After you raise and get called you fold out a lot of his weak combos, and your hand is not performing that well facing the river lead.

As played if you think this player is the type that would fold a queen to a jam then I don't hate continuing to tell your story that you have a big hand by jamming as a bluff. To me his line looks like he's trying to set his own price with marginal value, indicating something like a scared queen or a draw that rivered a jack.

Yes the plan was to check back river

Turn: I think Turn is critical here. I know you say he's a fish, but even fish tyically don't lead turn into 4 other players without something. We are in BB and with 3 others to act, I am flatting the bet even though it is small.

River: he shows strength even though you have the lead. Perhaps he has Qx and is block betting, but you're gonna risk a lot, and there's no saying given he's a fish he won't call your jam. I might just make the crying call given price and given there may be some missed draws.

call river for the price. i think turn raise is quite bad.

RESULT

Hero jams 400
V tank folds

What would you do differently given the advice you got?

turn raise is awful if you werent planning on following thru on riv

He bet so small I think he could have any pair on the board. 7X, 6X, 5X

It’s not until the second River bet that I think his range weights towards QX and I’m no good

Grunch:

PRE - I'd be sorely tempted to 3B to iso all that dead money in the pot. I understand flatting to set mine, but I think 88 is good enough to raise.

FLOP - w/e.

TURN - interesting spot. I think raising makes the most sense. Wondering if we could or should go bigger. SB's sizing is suspicious, and we don't want anyone behind us getting tricky by putting in a little min-click 3B.

RIVER - hmmmm... do we think this is a better hand block-betting for super thin value, or a bluff, something like missed clubs?

I kinda want to raise here, when we double block the obvious straight, and we could have a lot of really strong hands in our range, and we don't beat hands he might be betting for thin value.

If we jam for $395, he'll have to call off another $315, getting around 2.4 to 1. Seems like a tough call for his thin value hands to make.

I think we should just stick it all in.