NL2 6-max - KK in 3-bet pot vs flop shove
Hero (100.5bb) BB with K♣K♦
UTG (111.5bb) is 74/29 over 39 hands.
MP (203bb)
Preflop: UTG opens to 2bb, MP calls, Hero 3-bets to 12bb, UTG calls, MP calls.
Flop (36.5bb): T♦ 3♠ J♦
Hero bets 24bb, UTG shoves for 99.5bb total, MP folds.
Hero?
Thought process:
* I sized up preflop being OOP versus an open and a cold caller, but I'm not sure if 12bb is enough here. Should I be going bigger (14-16bb) at NL2?
* Flop c-bet was for value/protection against Tx, Jx, flush draws and combo draws.
* Once UTG jams, I'm struggling to assign him a range. A 74/29 over 39 hands is obviously very loose, so I expect him to show up with plenty of draws in addition to sets. On the other hand, flop jam ranges at NL2 tend to be very value-heavy.
Questions:
1. Is 12bb the right 3-bet size here, or should Hero be making it bigger OOP versus an open and a cold caller?
2. Is this a standard stack-off with KK on this flop, or is there an exploitative fold against the average NL2 population?
8 Replies
Preflop is fine I would not go bigger. I prefer check or smaller bet on flop. Think it's close on river, having Kd not that good but I think there is enough stuff a fish would shove that you are beating.
Preflop is fine I would not go bigger. I prefer check or smaller bet on flop. Think it's close on river, having Kd not that good but I think there is enough stuff a fish would shove that you are beating.
Thanks.
What range are you assigning Villain when he jams here? Are you expecting enough combo draws and pair+draw hands to outweigh sets and two pair, or do you think he's simply overplaying a lot of one-pair hands at NL2?
1. Is 12bb the right 3-bet size here, or should Hero be making it bigger OOP versus an open and a cold caller?
Sizing is fine.
2. Is this a standard stack-off with KK on this flop, or is there an exploitative fold against the average NL2 population?
Yes, standard stack-off, you need to pay 64.5BB to win 224.5BB vs UTG with rec stats.
Will you have > 28.7% equity?
Absolutely
There are 9 sets and 9 JT combos that beat you, so 18.
Pairs, OESD, gutshots, bluffs are 180+ combos for sure.
Calling is mandatory.
Sizing is fine.
Yes, standard stack-off, you need to pay 64.5BB to win 224.5BB vs UTG with rec stats.
Will you have > 28.7% equity?
Absolutely
There are 9 sets and 9 JT combos that beat you, so 18.
Pairs, OESD, gutshots, bluffs are 180+ combos for sure.
Calling is mandatory.
Thanks.
The pot odds make sense. My uncertainty is mainly about Villain's flop jamming range after calling the 3-bet preflop.
Are you assuming a typical loose recreational continues preflop with hands like KQ, Q9s, 98s, T9s, etc., and then jams those draws aggressively? Or do you think he's also jamming hands like Tx/Jx for protection?
Thanks.
What range are you assigning Villain when he jams here? Are you expecting enough combo draws and pair+draw hands to outweigh sets and two pair, or do you think he's simply overplaying a lot of one-pair hands at NL2?
Yeah I am more confident in call now, it's also a 3bet pot which can cause fish to stack off lighter/ with draws.
1. Preflop sizing is correct
2. Flop sizing is way too big in 3BP, especially on this board. I would go b20-b33. If he has Jx or Tx you will likely get stacks in by the river anyways. A smaller cbet will keep weaker parts of his range in and may induce a spazz bluff jam as he'll perceive you as weak.
There are a lot of these types of players in my pool and I am calling off here all day. Yes you will sometimes run into a set or get coolered on the runout but in the long run they will be jamming way too wide here to justify folding an overpair.
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1. Preflop sizing is correct2. Flop sizing is way too big in 3BP, especially on this board. I would go b20-b33. If he has Jx or Tx you will likely get stacks in by the river anyways. A smaller cbet will keep weaker parts of his range in and may induce a spazz bluff jam as he'll perceive you as weak. There are a lot of these types of players in my pool and I am calling off here
Thanks. I definitely like the point about the smaller flop c-bet—I think I overestimated the need for protection.
Out of curiosity, do you think your call is mainly population-based because Villain is 74/29, or would you also call off here against an unknown at NL2? That's the part I'm still trying to calibrate.
Definitely population based, but particularly against guys with 72vpip
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