how much to bet to get max value
1-3 nlhe 400 max
V 30ish WG Loose passive reg. sits to Hs immediate right. eff stack of about $300.
H MAWG has been raising pre and winning without resistance. V has made several comments about this.
HH1 V raises pre with AQo gets 3 callers. Flops top pair. Bets flop and turn only caller is a rec IP. V check calls ($100) a flush completing river.
HH2 two limpers and V limps. H with QdJd on BU $25. Only V calls. flop ($53 after rake) Kd 8d 5h. V checks H $30 V calls. turn ($112) 6d giving H 2nd nut flush. V checks H $60. V tank folds. V said that was the perfect bet size and complains about having a double gutter.
OTTH
PRE
one limper, V BU limps, H As4s SB completes. BB checks
Flop ($10 after rake) 8 6 3 two spades
checks to V $10
H calls all others fold
turn ($28) 4
H checks
V $20
H calls
river ($64) Js giving H nut flush.
Should H jump up and down clapping his hands shouting finally "I have the nuts!" before making his action?
11 Replies
Think I would bite my lip and check again.
This guy can’t have much and any size you try might fold him. If he checks it back, he wasn’t calling anyway.
Obviously hoping for a bet to check-raise. He’s been betting every street, give him the chance to bet again.
My alternative would be to jam. Villain thinks you’re pushing people around and might think you’re fos and call. Sometimes people just can’t fold their pocket pair.
Grunch:
PRE - meh. Seems ok. I don't hate flatting, but I also wouldn't hate a raise.
FLOP - checking seems fine. Wouldn't hate it if we just led out. Calling his PSB seems standard, but when the pot is small and we have A4ss on this board, I think a 3X check raise is viable. We can rep any two cards here, and if we make our flush it'll be more disguised.
TURN - hmmmm... what is your plan to win this hand? Is it to take your 3rd pair to SD while hoping to make your flush?
I think we need to take some aggressive action at some point if we want to win. Instead of just thinking about maximizing value when we make the nuts,.we should consider the value of winning the pot when we don't make the nuts.
I think a donk makes some sense here, as does a check raise. As played, when we check and V bets, even for 2/3 pot, I really want to put in that x/r now.
RIVER - as played, I think we need to donk, unless you think V is likely to continue betting.
What do you think his range is here? I'd think it's likely to be worse flush draws, and a bunch of other hands that will mostly check back.
Do you think he'll raise if we bet really small? I wouldn't expect that. Do you think he'll call a $40-$50 bet without a flush? Maybe. Maybe not.
Do you think a 2x pot over-bet might make him think you're FOS, and he might get curious enough to look us up light?
Because we've taken no aggressive action prior to the river, I tend to think we can bet bigger and still get looked up light. I'd probably 2X pot it and pray he had a worse flush draw that will snap call.
Really, though, we could have made this so much easier if we just went bet-bet-bet from the jump, especially if we raised pre instead of limping in.
I'm fine with the complete preflop OOP after two limpers.
I'm ok with the flop check/call. It's not awesome cuz we're facing a PSB - rake bet and OOP, so our immediate odds and IO aren't very good. But I'm not folding a nut flush draw at this point and just kinda hoping others come along to pad our odds. Wouldn't hate a small donk either just to see what shakes down.
Turn kinda ditto, but we've probably picked up some outs so ~ok. And I'm not gonna get fiesty against a straighforward player who's betting yet another street.
With our aggro image, never showing what we've actually had, and this guy kinda leaning towards tiltsville, I would seriously consider just open jamming the river. His weak hands (like 8x) prolly ain't calling any reasonable bet on this river card, but his bigger hands like two pear+ might just be fed up enough at this point to call the massive overbet enough of the time where it is the most profitable sizing.
GcluelessNLnoobG
I despise flatting a limped pot from the SB. It's going to underrealize so much compared to a raised pot. I'm raising or folding and I'm not folding A4s.
AP: Flop - is it even donking if everyone limped? You flopped a draw to the nuts with decent backdoors. Bet $15.
When you don't bet, x/r. You have equity against 88. V isn't folding KQss here. He probably isn't folding A8o, 75, 97, 54. There's like $290 behind, we want to be able to get it all in if we hit. Make it at least $45.
Turn: Meh. In a super limped pot we're going to run into a straight here sometimes and if we're against 2p or a set we are much less happy getting it in than we would have been on the flop. The 4 doesn't really improve our equity against anything that is willing to play for stacks. Donking is an ok idea, but check/call is fine.
River: The problem is that the flush coming in is going to cause most opponents at these stakes to shutdown their bluffs and their value bets. V is going to check somewhere close to 100% of his range. Sets, straights, overpairs are all checking. Some of his flushes might bet, none of them will pay off a x/r. So I don't think going for a x/r versus an unknown at these stakes is a good idea. You kind of have to hope that he has Kxss or a something like a straight or set that he just can't release.
This is where I wish the pot was bigger and we had x/r the flop to build up the pot. I think almost everything folds to a jam. I'd probably go for $125. We're really just hoping he has Kxss or a straight because I don't think we are getting paid by much else unless we go really small.
raise pre, x/r flop or donk
jam all in sounds good. maybe do it instantly so it looks weaker.
I in fact did not scream I have the nuts. I kept that a secret.
I thought about raising pre, but didn't like being out of position with A4.
I thought about check raising the turn then saw the possible straight and changed my mind. But I did think I picked up some outs with my pair.
The river: Too many players at this level will check back flush cards that a check raise doesn't seem profitable. The way I played my hand I thought it was obvious that I was on a draw so big bets may not pay off.
I decided on half pot $30. V said its a crying call and put in the call. V shows 34o for a turned two pair. Was this the most I could have gotten?
How would everyone else had played? Would it have been raise pre bet bet bet? V had 34o. A raise may have gotten a fold pre. Which isn't so bad i guess.
As I say, I think preflop / flop / turn are all reasonably played (even though there are alternative lines you could take).
But I think we missed huge value on the river. His weak one pear hands (like 8x) simply aren't going to call much of anything now that the main draw (and an overcard to boot) got there, so simply ignore those hands. Instead, concentrate on the hands that may pay off larger bets, and there are a crapload of hands that fall into this category (two pear, sets, straights and flushes). And those latter hands are often going to be willing to pay off very large bets (even sometimes massive overbet shoves at an ~ok percentage of the time), especially with the perceived dynamic (he's tilting, we're bullying) that is going on.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Probably would have slightly overbet pot on river based on meta discussions w/ V.
XR flop
I in fact did not scream I have the nuts. I kept that a secret.I thought about raising pre, but didn't like being out of position with A4.I thought about check raising the turn then saw the possible straight and changed my mind. But I did think I picked up some outs with my pair.The river: Too many players at this level will check back flush cards that a check raise doesn't see
I mean...yeah. That's what I posted.
PRE - ok to raise.
FLOP - donking would be ok. So would a x/r.
TURN - ditto the above. Donk or x/r.
You waited until you made your hand before you started putting money into the pot, and by then your hand was pretty face up.