2-5 with 88 in 3bet pot OOP on 8d6d3d 2d J

I would lead the flop. On the river, you have a weak bluff catcher, and it is read-dependent.

looks like a call to me. i doubt a plo guy is going to check back a high diamond on the flop.

I don’t like checking the flop
You hit your hand so bet it and at the same time claim (with your actions) that the monotone board doesn’t bother you.

As played, maybe capped villain but also capped yourself with no high flush cards.

Turn and River looks like a flush, acts like a flush, hard not to believe it’s a flush. Still, I’ve seen a board like this with 4people involved and nobody had a flush, so there’s no certainty

I think I would have folded, but the villain you describe could be playing wild. Guessing you wouldn’t have posted this if you didn’t win. Nice

idk fold sometimes pre

id probably call down bc sizing scheme is stupid. it looks indifferent to me otr and you will prob tilt him if you call down without a flush and win. sort of unlikely plo guy bets the T / J of diamonds here which is kind of what his size looks like to me. is odd line though. i think you will learn quite a bit about how he thinks about the game when you see his hole cards here

I think it might be a fingernails dug in the felt fold pre hu oop.

I don’t think I’ve ever seen the “ask for a flop in the OP—get that flop—play like hate the flop” parlay before.

I sure hope he didn’t have JyJz

FWIW I did run it in GTOwiz (CO vs. BTN, 200bb for the full board) before posting, although obviously the limp and all the sizes are stupid.

Without accounting for those GTOwiz never folds pre. (even HJ vs. BTN).

Maybe with the size GTO would start folding a bit pre. ... also if it had to account for EP being able to limp monsters (seems very unlikely).

GTOwiz pure checks flop (AIUI monotone flops generally are as good for both players, so OOP always checks -- but that assumes the same kind of mostly suited range construction from both players).

After flop x/x GTOwiz did mixed lead turn for 25%, and if we check V only has a 25% size too (lolz, live poker) and then H pure calls 88 on turn with this hand.

After turn, x/c GTOwiz mixes leads on the river for 20% pot ... but if checks it pure calls (V bets 75%).

So technically it was fine with x/x,x/c,x/c line. But, against humans, eh not sure.

Yeh, part of my reasoning on the river was that there was non-chip value in calling.

Yeh, but if not bluffing flop ... why bluff turn+river?

Could (hopefully) be that he's decided my checks mean I'm weak and folding, but there are no draws on turn and I called ... so
¯\_(ツ😉_/¯

Yeh seems insane to put $1k in vs. $80 but, minor spoiler, I'm pretty sure that would have been fine vs. his range.

Going to wait another day before posting full results.

i didnt see you were 1k eff. can run again at 1k eff, still think you want to avoid defending the middle pairs pre pure if you're opening from earlier than the co (here you are as you are isoing and his 3b is large / medium-high rake environment).

prob difference is this sim has him b45 ott so your range a bit tighter than the one hes b25ing in. its not approved at all but i wonder about xr either street particularly when hes taking a size he shouldn't that at least on the surface to me reflects thin value (i question that these hands get bet in reality). if you think about it, we have one of the few hands that has actual equity if we're behind ott. i think lead turn makes sense too

for the sims, try to find comparable spr as opposed to x amount of blinds starting stack. here the spr on the flop is 5.34 but the one you're look at is nearly double that (10.35)

Never folding pre. I have too big of an edge over a random 2/5 player and you're probably a better player than I am. People 3! The button more liberally. Plus you raised a limper.

Might go 25 when we raise because we are happy enough to win pre no rake and I think this could make a difference with this limper but maybe you saw otherwise.

I like a small lead otf. Nothing all that bad can happen. Some good stuff can happen. Like if he folds some random diamond that's fine, especially as we are oop. There are going to be these scenarios where it just checks down and he wins with a mid diamond or he takes us for 1 street with JD.

In other words, it's one of those spots where there are hands with decent equity that will never put in another chip unless they improve but might fold now pretty easily.

Granted he might just call with many of those hands. that's fine too.

Also, I don't think this is a board on which he is going to run some crazy bluff that you can just pick off, nor is he going to be looking to play a huge pot with worse value hands. So let's put a little money in now, for it's own sake, and maybe to induce some stuff. Maybe he interprets this as trying to buy a cheap turn and raises black kk or something or goes nuts with a single diamond.

Overall, unless he flopped a flush, it is an awkward spot and a weak lead makes it more awkward.

I think the call down is fine. I agree with your read that a big diamond or made flush often c bets flop but most players are not value betting 2 streets with less than A or K, and many not a K. Sucks if he decides to bluff 2d or something but it's a 3! Pot so unlikely.

Results:

looks ok by him at higher rake tbh. hand is mix leaning towards fold but i dont think its absurd or anything. if you dont 3b kto u probably 3b kjo so its maybe a pip too wide in a pool thats going to under4b and under realize post with a hand w decent blockers and okish equity

I know I’m an idiot, especially when it comes to NLHE, and that the hands posted here are not even a quintillionth of a valid sample size, not to mention being results biased.

But over & over it seems that a majority of the time in this situation: raked small stakes, hu oop, good but vulnerable hand, fold/jam would’ve been better on every street than check/call/bet sizing, especially for rec players like me. Maybe not you two.

this is a fold pre heads up unless we can pretty much see villain's cards

We're not getting the odds to call at 500 eff stack even if villain stacks off & we win pretty much every time. I think it's fine to call 3 way or if he bet 60 or 65, but another 60 heads up is a losing call over the long run.

I would rather shove pre than call...and I wouldn't do that either.

fish logic I know, but at least if you fold you won't see the flop.

fold>shove>call

idk anything about you as a player, but surely if you have a giant edge over the table then calling an overly large 3 bet with a mid pair oop doesn't seem like the greatest way to realise it?

I don’t expect to see gambly PLO guy checking back single big diamonds, so he likely either flopped nuts / 2nd nuts or has air. I think call call is good. And yes I saw results.

We are 1k deep and he just 4xed. It's not a tourney so no need to pick spots or whatever.

My read that he was wide being on the button and seeing that we raised a limper was right.

I can't see how someone winning at a good rate is worse than break even on the call vs the 2/5 field and there are lots of benefits to being looser. Your image is better, you gain more experience, you have more fun, you might help make the whole table loser and more fun.

Showing weakness on the flop
Gave a FreeCard and v hit his hand
I know OOP solver checks flops, but you send the wrong message here - the story says I missed everything, but you didn’t - you hit your hand - make villain pay.

In this case, you may not get v to fold, but when the turn comes, he worries you have the ace. As played, I think v played it well. You would have folded to a shove.

Don’t underestimate PLO players. They understand risk. I think it’s a mistake to lump them in as wild, loose players. Incompetent players get crushed at PLO.

I haven’t had much success in hoping that the river pairs the board.

When I got knocked out of the tournament recently shoving KK on a J62 board against the chip leader with JJ, I felt stupid later for standing there asking for a king.

ah ok re stacks - I thought it was the 500 guy

Prediction - Hero calls and loses to 54cc or JJ, no diamond.

Grunch:

PRE - seems reasonable to me.

FLOP - wondering if we should ever donk here? Probably not.

TURN - holding a set and sitting deep enough to go boat-mining, I don't think I'd fold, either.

Is boat-mining a thing, or did I just make it up?

RIVER - I mean...V probably has all the over pairs in his range. Half of those combos (18) don't have a diamond and would probably start bluffing on the turn.

It would be pretty sick if he got there with JJ, or was going super thin with some 54 combo of another suit.

I dunno. He's a PLO guy. His brain might be a bag of stray cats all hopped up on the 'nip. He's laying us better than 2.5 to 1. But is that enough? Does anyone have enough bluffs or worse value here?

I don't think you like Marc Goone. I remember he reviewed a completely made up hand like this, in which he advocated for turning top set into a bluff on a four-flush board when V bet kinda small, to rep a straight flush. I think the logic was that V is only repping the NF and hero can only raise the SF for value, and I guess no one thinks anyone is ballsy enough to turn anything into a x/r bluff on this run-out.

I feel like half a degen saying it, but I think a HUGE raise here probably outperforms calling. Maybe we win a sliver of the time if we call, but we win all the time when he folds to our x/r.

Obviously we lose a ton when he snaps.

Poker is so stupid sometimes.