NL2 - Fine bluff or fancy play syndrome?
NL2 on CoinPoker (4-handed on 6-max table)
Hero in SB with Jh 9c
Villain in BB, 100bb eff.
PREFLOP:
Hero opens to 3bb
Villain 3! to 6bb
Hero calls
FLOP: [Qc 9d 8s] (12bb)
Hero checks
Villain bets 9bb
Hero calls
TURN: [8h] (30bb)
Hero checks
Villain bets 15bb
Hero calls
RIVER: [Ks] (60bb)
Hero checks
Villain bets 30bb
Hero XR! all-in 70bb
Villain calls and shows Ac Qh
Analysis:
Preflop: J9o is a mix in theory, flipped a coin and landed on raise. I would never randomize if I had player notes, but Villain was an unknown with a reg-ish slash line (28/20/17). The extremely small 3bet from reg-looking players in my experience is weighted towards hands that the solver likes to 3bet but that Villain is uncomfortable doing so with (Suited connectors, bad offsuit aces, suited aces usually). Given the high 3bet frequency (17%) I assumed that Villain was never mixing and 3betting pure with these types of hands. Because of the small size and the fact that I am almost never dominated against the assigned range, I elect to call.
Flop: I considered a lead on this rainbow, semi-connected board. I don't think QQ, AQ, 99 would choose the small 3bet size preflop so I think Villain is capped at single-pair holdings with the occasional 98hh. I decided against it mainly because I did not know if JT would choose the small 3bet size preflop. I checked, and facing a 3/4 pot bet, I assume that Villain is a thinking player. 3/4 pot is not an auto-cbet size and when c-betting on this board you likely want to choose a bigger size. There is no reason to raise or fold with middle pair and a gutshot, so I call.
Turn: I again considered a lead on this turn, as based on my elimination of flopped sets and overpairs from Villain's range and the fact that I block the only remaining combo of 98s, I think Villain is extremely capped and will fold near range to pressure. However, I do think Villain will slow down a lot and under double-barrel on this particular turn, so I elect to check and realize or get more information about Villain's hand by his bet sizing. Facing a 1/2 pot bet, I think that Villain's range is pretty squarely still single-pair hands and bluffs. I think if Villain had JT for the flopped straight they would likely bet larger on this scary turn to check back river, and if villain had 87s or A8o for turned trips they would bet larger out of greed. Based on my analysis of Villain's range, my hand is a good bluff-catching candidate. However, I think that I can get Villain to fold a Q by the river. Based on the flop sizing I have tagged Villain as a thinking player who is capable of laying down top pair. I considered raising now, however we are at an awkward SPR where if I raised to a reasonable size the SPR would be too shallow to fold out a Q on the river, and if I jam I don't represent any value. Therefore I elect to call and XR-jam most rivers. This does have the downside of Villain checking back a lot of top pair hands on the river, but in a wide-vs-wide configuration, I think Villain is capable of betting thinly for value.
River: The K is a relative brick; the only improved hand in Villain's range is KQ which is only technically improved. I stick to my plan of check-raising the river. I think the size (70bb over 30bb) actually helps my case, as I think a thinking player would perceive it as super underbluffed and overfold in this spot. Unfortunately, Villain calls and shows Ac Qh for second pair.
I think my main mistake in this hand was assuming that Villain was a thinking player based alone on his slash line and flop sizing. Please give any feedback on how I played this hand, and feel free to call me a punter.
8 Replies
First things first, do not post the result if you want an unbiased analysis.
Is this an actual thought process during the hand that you had, or a justification thought up later? You are making a lot of assumptions based on what feels like just pure vibes and little else, and then building more assumptions on top of that and arriving at some world that might or might not have a lot in common with the real world. How many hands do you have on this guy? Is that sample enough to assume you know exactly how he plays every part of his range down to bet sizings? Probably not. The larger deviations you have seen (in stats or in showdowns), the larger deviations you can make to exploit them.
I would just fold pre personally. We will have problems realizing oop. As played, dont hate flop and turn, but wouldnt expect good FE on the river for this sizing (you are making a third pot raise). Probably fold river as well.
I would fold preflop, call if we are suited. J9o is just too trashy to play OOP.
On the flop calling seems natural.
I would release on the turn, it's a rather big bet and some river cards improve us but also improve villain to better holdings (a J can complete KT, a T can complete KJ).
First things first, do not post the result if you want an unbiased analysis.Is this an actual thought process during the hand that you had, or a justification thought up later? You are making a lot of assumptions based on what feels like just pure vibes and little else, and then building more assumptions on top of that and arriving at some world that might or might not have a l
Thanks for the response, I didn't even think to not post the result. To clarify, I play on CoinPoker which has a new GG-esque native HUD, not sure how big the sample it uses is, but that's where I was getting his stats from. That was my thought process during the hand. I agree that I made a lot of assumptions which ended up being faulty. Regarding the FE on river, I think I was too in the weeds on levels (I thought that he would know that I knew that I didn't have much FE, would think that I was hugely underbluffing, and would overfold as a result). Maybe that just doesn't happen, I'd like to think that I would've folded river but truly I can't know.
I would fold preflop, call if we are suited. J9o is just too trashy to play OOP.
On the flop calling seems natural.
I would release on the turn, it's a rather big bet and some river cards improve us but also improve villain to better holdings (a J can complete KT, a T can complete KJ).
Suited, I usually limp/call pure. I agree that offsuit is rancid and should be avoided OOP, but the price, along with the pool tendencies given the size, seemed too good to pass up (not trying to make excuses, just going through thought process). And yeah, if I had it in my mind that it wouldn't get through on the river then turn is a pure fold, but devious intentions, as they say. Thanks for the feedback!
Don't understand why you call pre with that. Even though you have good pot odds (~28%), your equity vs his range is around the same + he will rarely 3b bluff with a min raise so we can exclude of his range A5s, A4s, random Kxs or suited connectors. And most important you are OOP so post flop you will have a disadvantage unless you have a big edge over him (like he is a whale/a huge fish or you have a good amount of informations to exploit him post flop).
Call with middle pair post flop seems good bc he will range cbet a lot on this texture.
But calling on the turn is already a bit of a mistake. Bc to call turn you need to have informations on him to be sure that he will continue to bluff some A high like AJs or ATs (gutshots). Otherwise, his only natural bluffs would be KJs or KTs but you block KJs so only 3 combos left.
Furthermore, 1/2 on the turn is often used as thin value with the bottom of his value range. He will go bigger with his sets, straights and even overpairs bc he knows (even if he is a fish) that you have a strong range when calling on the flop.
And finally, your bluff in this situation is quite good and is the play that I like the most in this hand. Even if you block some hands that fold, your line is very strong so you are telling a good story. And from a strategy point of view, you need to add this hand to your raise range bc it is almost the weakest hand of your range.
But overall, this bluff only works if villain understand the game, so if it is a reg of NL50 at least. And that he assumes that you are not calling 2 barrel with J9o lol.
Pre is whatever, flop and turn are ok considering stack size. But river... you're basically only folding out bluffs since you're giving such great odds to call.
It could be ok, just seems unnecessary. Most people's betting range on the river is Kx+ and they're getting a good price. They might think you would play 8x+ faster on the flop or turn. At low stakes, players tend to be call-happy.
What do your stats to V look like? Just as you plot to exploit V he is plotting to exploit you.
The large flop bet and turn half pot downsize on a not so favorable card for villain is weighted towards TP/overpairs - I would expect a lot of checks here with air or larger sized bluffs. It is also optimistic to try and fold out TP type hands when you are BVB and at a low SPR.
Its not a bad thing to try and make assumptions off opponents tendencies - but here you are jumping the gun. You are relying on him being a thinking player, but his preflop raise size is fishy, and its 2nl.
