Slowplayed set of kings vs smallish river bet and nitty players
2NL
Stacks:
UTG (104bb) (32, 7, 77)
SB covers hero (26, 6, 65)
Hero (175.5bb) (24, 15, 69)
Hero has K♠ J♠ on the big blind
Preflop:
UTG limps, SB raises to 3bb, Hero 3bets to 10bb, both players call
Flop: 5♥ K♣ K♦ (30bb, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks
Turn: 9♥ (30bb, 3 players)
SB bets 15bb, Hero calls 15bb, UTG folds
River: 8♥ (60bb, 2 players)
SB bets 15bb
Hero has 150bb behind, what should they do?
Flop:
flopping top set here I know I've got betting initiative, but on the site I play and in this lobby in particular players very frequently fold to cbets if there's an ace or king on the board. I'm worried about scaring off opponents so decide to slowplay a bit hoping for either a stab by UTG or bet by SB on the turn.
Turn:
The SB bets and at this point it's probably a good idea to reraise, but I still feel like any significant aggression will give my hand away and they're likely to just fold. I don't expect e.g. an improved backdoor flush to give me much money. I'm hoping to see a big bet on the river and if he bets small I plan to raise most of the time depending on what cards come.
River:
I'm very suspicious of the sizing here, but I wasn't really sure what it could mean. A flush inducing a raise? A flush afraid of a full house? A different set of kings? Even a full house going low to induce a raise?
1 Reply
2NLStacks:UTG (104bb) (32, 7, 77)SB covers hero (26, 6, 65)Hero (175.5bb) (24, 15, 69)Hero has K♠ J♠ on the big blindPreflop:UTG limps, SB raises to 3bb, Hero 3bets to 10bb, both players callFlop: 5♥ K♣ K♦ (30bb, 3 players)SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checksTurn: 9♥ (30bb, 3 players)SB bets 15bb, Hero calls 15bb, UTG foldsRiver: 8♥ (60bb, 2 players)SB bets 15bbHero has 150bb behind, wh
First off, a small nit to pick: you don’t have a set here, you have trips. Both are three of a kind, but a set is when you have a pocket pair and one of the board cards matches your pair. It’s generally better hand than trips (even though they have the same rank) since opponents are less likely to think you have three of a kind when there is no pair on the board.
Anyway, you are under repped here so I don’t think villains bets are necessarily indicative of extreme strength. Villain certainly could have a Kx hand. Many 2NL villains would not four bet AK so I wouldn’t rule out that or KQ. Flushes seem unlikely, but not impossible since you didn’t cbet. I do think it’s a pretty easy river call though since villain could take this line with 22-TT or even JJ and QQ if he’s a passive type. It’s a small size so you only have to win 16.7% to break even. I think that’s probable. Not sure it’s a raise since what is he calling with that you beat? Maybe he folds a KQ or AK thinking you have the flush, but most 2NL villains would be pretty sticky there and it just seems like a losing play.
Finally, stop worrying about “scaring villains off”, especially when playing 2NL. The single most common and most costly mistake 2NL villains make is calling too much. Slow playing your big hands allows them to avoid that mistake. If they have something they will call. If they have air they probably fold no matter what you have. All you’re doing with the slow play is giving them the chance to suck out. In this particular hand, I can see the logic of the slow play, but villain still could have pocket pairs, some kind of 5x hand and maybe even some high card hands like AQ that would call your bet. Multi-way does call for using caution, but as a general rule, you don’t want to slow play at 2NL (and honestly not too much at higher stakes either).
Think in terms of your entire range - are you always going to have a K after three betting pre? Of course not. If you are playing the rare 2NL game where villains are actually over folding, you will still want to cbet. You will print in spots like this when you don’t have the K.
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