Rate my play - AKo 5/10/20

i doubt a better hand ever folds to this bet. you might have got him off a chop. b/c you have so many outs, maybe thats worth it, idk. i have my doubts.

It’s a little confusing on which player we’re up against. Maybe v and not v1 is raising I assume

I kinda liked it until I read that you thought he had a pocket pair, and the description said he got sticky with an overpair previously. Does that make sense to you.

The best predictor of future results is past results. You need a lot of fold equity as you can’t depend on hitting the draw.

Don’t know if you win, but I’m not the guy to talk to for criticizing aggression, that’s the name of the game.

Sidenote: Losing $400 is a big deal to me, so there may be nuance that I don’t run into at 1/3

Sorry. V and v1 are the same guy. Don know why I wrote it like that.

Why do you put him on overpairs after the flop downbet? Wouldn't you expect him to range cbet this flop?

Either way, the jam with Ad in your hand seems good. Obviously you get rid of all the other AK etc, but you credibly rep either a flush or TT so even a player who gets a bit sticky may find some folds here and you still have equity if you're behind - especially vs a hand like QQ. Maybe you get folds out of all the overpairs that don't have a diamond, if not all then surely at least a chunk of them

Preflop I'm generally not a huge fan of calling a 4bet with AKo but if this guy opens too wide then perhaps you can make an assumption that his 4bet range may be a bit wider than normal? So probably OK

Hey OP, what’s your read on V’s 4bet range? Is there anything hero is beating, like AQ or KQs? Or is bluffing the only way to win the hand?

Preflop, facing a 4bet with AKo, I’m calling most Vs but hating life.

I’m good with the call on the flop.

Bluffing a V who “got sticky” postflop is usually a bad idea. If V had a fold button, with the Ad, I would jam the turn.

You are 32% on the turn against JJ/QQ and there is less than a psb left. Could he play AA/KK/TT this way? Could we ever be ahead or freerolliing?

Why is he betting small on the flop? Wouldn't he be playing to gii on the turn with JJ+ so shallow? It is hard to know what he plays this way, but I wouldn't be certain he has an overpair.

It is hard for him to call with say JJ, but it might look to him like you have a draw rather than a flush or TT or something.

IMO this is an easy shove. The alternative is to just hope to hit and fold if you miss. If you play it that way, you may sometimes fold a chop or the best hand. So I think you have to shove as a semibluff., even if you don't get better hands to fold that often.

I doubt he checks turn very often with AA–JJ if he’s planning to continue aggressively. This feels more like a range c-bet on the flop followed by a lot of pot control (praying to get to showdown) once the third diamond rolls off.

He’ll probably continue with overpairs containing a diamond, but I still like jamming here. You retain decent equity when called, and the line applies a ton of pressure to his non-diamond overpairs and fold out his AK without Kd. Feels like enough fold equity + backup equity to be profitable.

If villain had shoved the turn, you would probably have to call. You would have odds against QQ/JJ, but he would often have AA/KK sometimes TT, but enough lower flush draws or whatever that it would be a call.

So you probably have to shove here, as you occasionally get him off a chop or don't get bluffed or drawn out on if you are ahead, and usually get QQ/JJ without a diamond to fold.

AdKs has 38 percent equity on the turn against JJ+, AK, and I think hero picks up enough fold equity to justify the shove.

Hero has nerves of steel to make ev+ high variance moves at these stakes. Well played.

You always need to be ready to stack off. Have to think of them as pieces of clay.

But is this a high variance ev+ move or a high variance ev- move? From description of V and OPs read that V has a high pp I dislike the move as think it is ev-. Change V to not sticky with pp and my opinion changes. Why bother to make reads on V if we are going to ignore them?

I’d argue that Hero is making +EV play here. Hero should jam once the flush completing card hits the turn and Villain checks. Villain’s check heavily weights him toward SDV hands, and holding the A♦ gives Hero a huge nut and blocker advantage in this spot. His line looks a lot like a hand trying to get to showdown cheaply, possibly even AA without a diamond.

We do have some reads, but I wouldn’t completely overhaul my strategy based on a very limited sample size and one light call-down without full context for that hand. This is still a 4-bet pot where ranges are extremely tight, and Hero holding A♦ matters a lot. Realistically, what flushes does Villain even arrive here with? I can maybe give him a very misplayed K♦Q♦, but not much else and I doubt he checks that on turn anyway.

Given the range configuration, Hero has a significant informational and nut-advantage edge once Villain checks this turn. If we aren’t going to leverage spots like this to apply maximum pressure with a jam, then when are we? We’re putting all the non-diamond overpairs into an absolutely miserable spot.

But our goal is to make money not put opponents in a miserable spot. I think we are approaching OP's read on V very differently. I believe it and feel that OP can not in a reasonable post describe all the information used to make the read. You don't believe OP and are unwilling to adjust your strategy. You are a perfect example of my point which was why bother to make reads if you are going to ignore them. If OP's reads are correct V might be miserable but will call too often for the bet to be ev+.

If you think he has 100% overpairs, even with Ad it's a fold. Most mid 50s guys' 4bet I would not call with AKo. Just fold.

You mean fold to 15% pot on the flop. On the turn, we can check back and draw.

If we do that, it may be tricky if an ace or particularly a king hits. We may get paid off some if a flush hits, particularly if he has Kd, Qd, or Jd. If he bets on a blank, we have to assume he has a big pair and fold, possibly getting bluffed off the best hand or a chop.

If he has a reasonably correct 4-betting range, then preflop, flop, and turn are correct. If he is an OMC, who almost always has AA/KK, then maybe fold preflop and flop and check turn as played.

thought process of read based on his bad sticky call was, he would be hesitant to make the same mistake twice... possibly a poor read but was my thought.

Villain tanked for about 4 minutes. then eventually gave it the good 'ole "f--k it I call". he then immediately flipped over QQ no diamond.

river was a brick and we ship him the pot and $1500 more. I feel the play was warranted and proper pressure to all 1 pair holdings. Is it high variance? 100% +EV? i believe so as well. I appreciate the responses, and am still thinking about it. but most of these posts are confirming what i already believed other than. once sticky always sticky. ill put that one into my back pocket for future use!

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If he always has JJ+ and isn't folding QQ without a diamond, then the push is bad. If you can narrow him down to like QQ/JJ based on player type and action, maybe play passively. Think if he had AK or a light 4! that missed, if he 4!s those hands, he would bluff the flop and turn. If he had a big pair with a diamond, he might push himself.

The push is such a natural play with outs and only pot left, that you need to be really sure of you reads on what he has and that he is not folding it to check back and draw.

Just a matter of if he folds overpairs which he probably doesn't so checking is better.

Looks like V played it perfectly, including the fake 4 minute tank so you'll do it again.

All of this is great, except the OP is riddled with evidence overpairs aren't folding. So ''maximum pressure'' is borderline meaningless.

I don't want to hate on the play because this does seem like the natural line to take holding the Ad and I obviously understand it's easier to make the right decisions having a chance to read the OP 3 times and think about the spot for 10+ min but nothing in this OP says we have any FE at all.

This is a contradiction.

what?? lulz. how is that a contradiction. it was high variance....+ev.....and i realized after the fact once sticky always sticky (I assumed he would learn from his previous bad sticky call)

You still think the play is +EV?