ROI Confidence

Good question and small field turbos are actually one of the better spots to get meaningful data faster because variance is way lower than large field MTTs. With 60-player fields and 346 samples at 34% ROI, your confidence interval is probably tighter than you think. I ran similar volume in $7.50 turbos on Stars a few years back and around 500 games my ROI stabilized within a few percent of where it ended up at 2,000. The blind structure in turbos does inflate variance somewhat compared to deepstacks, so I'd say get to 600-700 before trusting the number as truly representative, but you're already in the range where 34% ROI is almost certainly real edge and not pure heater.

Thanks Data Guy!!
In an attempt to come up with a analysis based rationale, I did the following:
1. Organized the data I already have into a distribution of cash rates vs prize sizes and set it = to my current ROI
2. Ran simulations based on samples ranging from 200 up to 5,000.
3. Estimate a confidence interval based on the min - max of the simulation results.

Here's what I came up with for my current sample size = 346
Average ROI from all simulations = 32.9% (pretty close to target of 34)
Max = 55.5% Min = 10.6% Range = +22.5%

So our true ROI is most likely no lower than 32.9-22.5 = 10.4% (edge confirmed)

Well would you look at that!
Somebody already has a calculator for that.

https://www.primedope.com/tournament-variance-calculator/

Primedope

Primedope Tournament Variance Calculator 2026

After pecking in my results, it returned the following:
70% confidence ROI range = 18.4% to 48.7%
95% confidence ROI range = 4.6% to 66.3%

I'm going to guess my real edge is somewhere between ROI = 20% & 30%

Excellent results! Over 2k games i think is very decent sample in these fields