1/3 ~ JTs how to play oop

Given his likely tilt, I would not go for a c/r here. Nor would I even consider a 3-bet pre. I'd usually fold pre OOP againt a likely tilty gangsta-looking V with a speculative hand.

I just call here, and look for V to get froggy OTT. Hopefully, we can hop too, but it not, nbd.

Grunch:

Reads - are we assuming anything about V's skill level based on his appearance? Have we observed anything else which may give us some insights?

Do we think he's tilted? Do we think his open size is an indication of his hand strength? What do we think it indicates?

PRE - we can flat call a lot in the BB, closing the action. I'd mostly just flat call with JTs, almost regardless of any reads on V.

FLOP - seems like a very straightforward call, almost regardless of any reads.

We can have more x/r's when V uses a small c-bet size. In this spot, with our hand, when V is laying us such a great price to continue, we should just call.

Tempted to attack his small flop sizing but villains generally don't like to find the fold button when they are stuck so I am just c/c the flop.

If turn gets checked through Id attack a lot of the rivers with close to PSB when we completely whiff

I doubt playing anything too speculative HU OOP in a raked game is profitable for me, so I fold preflop. But getting an ok price and possibly going 3ways I'm not going to hate too much on a flat.

This is one of my fave flops... an OESD on a flush draw board. We have great IO on the non-flush OESD cuz they'll put us on a busted flush, and meanwhile we have great FE on the flush cards. So I just passively call the flop. If a flush card comes on the turn I'll bet a reasonable bet to steal the pot with a river bet. I'll probably check/raise a non-flush straightening card (although argument for donking).

GcluelessNLnoobG

H x/r to 40
V calls

Pot 108
Turn 6♠
Hero?

Good point here. After we just stacked V, it seems really unlikely he's in a folding mood. More likely he'll tell us what he has by his actions and bet sizing, or just blast away if he's tilted. When we're OOP, there doesn't seem to be much incentive to raise with a draw.

If you want to x/r as a semi-bluff, either go bigger to generate more fold equity, or go smaller, to leave a higher SPR and more room to maneuver on later streets.

This isn't balanced at all, but in this spot, I'd go massive with thick value, like 5x or more, and just 3x with a semi-bluff. I'm not expecting him to fold very often, so I'd want max value when I have it and more late street maneuverability when I don't.

How are you ranging V now? I'd think he's somewhat capped here, assuming he'd 3B the flop with his nutted hands. I'd think he has top pair, at best.

By my calcs he's got $350 left. It would suck to barrel big and get jammed on. If we pot it and he jams, we'll be priced in to call. It would also suck to bet small and see him jam, putting us in the blender.

I don't see any point in betting big but less than all in. We wouldn't be leaving enough behind to make V fold if we stick the rest in on the river.

I think we could jam for 3.5x pot for max fold equity. You're around 32% vs what I'd guestimate his range to be. I think he'd be getting the right price to call, but I doubt many players call at the correct frequency.

The wild card here is his mental state after you stacking him. He may be tilted and have revenge mode activated. He might call with any piece of the board, any PP, or some higher flush draws.

Laugh muh ballz off if he has JcTc.

Adding to the above...

I think the break-even point on a 3.5x pot jam is around 44%. If we assume we have around 32% equity vs his calling range, I think that means we only need around 12% fold equity to make the jam. If he folds more often 12% of the time, we're auto-profiting.

Even if he's on monkey-tilt, I'd think he'd fold more than 12% of the time. Maybe he calls 75%-80%, and folds 20%-25%.

We can nudge the assumed equity one way or the other, but you get the point. We don't need him to fold all that often for the jam to print.

Go for another xr

I'm not sure we're telling much of a believable story with our flop check/raise. We don't really have QQ+, right? And it's unlikely we have any two pear. So of made hands, we're repping about exactly 99 and 22. I mean, it will work against A high. And might work against those in a folding mood (is he?) with TP+ or an underpair. But I think we have enough outs / repped outs to just passively play the flop.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Dislike the cr. Now that youre here, just check. He’l prob check back giving you a free card. If you whiff bet the river smallish to get whiffed flush draws and pairs tt and lower to fold bc u are repping jx.

If he bets turn cr again is suicide bc his range will be very strong at that point. Dont do that.

Total spew/punt. So youre folding kjs pre and now stacking off with jack high vs a strong range? You have serious leaks in your game

Why would it be unlikely we have any 2P when V raises to a smaller-than-his-usual size from MP and we defend by flatting in the BB? We're not getting here with Q9? Why not?

V c-bet around 1/3 pot in a SRP, after opening for a smaller-than-usual size. He's not exactly broadcasting a ton of strength. This seems like a spot where many low-stakes players will start getting aggo with top pair, almost any old kicker.

He may not be in a folding mood. I'd be much less enthusiastic about x/r'ing if he raised bigger pre and c-bet bigger. I don't really love x/r'ing with our specific combo, and don't really love the size OP used, but I'd bet this x/r gets through often enough to make it profitable.

Not sure if serious or sarcastic, but I think I like the idea, either way.

I mean...V has $350 left, and there's $100 in the pot. I was thinking a 3.5x jam takes it down, and we don't mind if he calls now that we've got 15 outs to a very strong hand. I wonder what size he'd bet if we checked. All in? Seems unlikely, but maybe he pots it, and then we can jam, if we've already decided we're going with our hand.

Not sure it's the highest EV play, but it's not every session we get a reasonable spot to go for the rarely-seen double-x/r. I might want to do it here, just for the Lulz or to impress the ladies.

How have we decided his range is very strong?

He opened for a smaller-than-usual size pre, and c-bet around 1/3 pot on a wet and dynamic board, in a SRP. Then he just flat called hero's x/r.

He's not exactly breathing fire or shooting lasers out of his eyes. Looks to me like he's got some SDV or he's on a draw, same as hero.

I was being facetious there. I would’ve folded this preflop and xc flop. Hero’s xr was horrible imo. And I’m certainly checking the turn.

EDIT: You know what, Doc convinced me. Now that we’re here with Betty Boop bringing the booze, and Vanilla Ice on tilt, let’s go for the green in two. A successful double xr is worth getting a tattoo over, and would be a heckuva story for the boys back home at the tire factory & VFW.

Getting back to back stacked might make Lil Drexl max out his credit card, and even get hero some leg from Peg if she sees him stacking a monster.

And seriously, v could fold, and h not taking too much the worst of it if the stacks go in. Offer to run the river as many times as v wants.

Heh, I was being sarcastic, but if you were ever going to do it, this is probably the spot, especially if a crowd is watching. Twenty years ago we got a pretty decent rail for our 15-30 LHE game, being located by the front doors, pit, & restaurants.

I’m assuming nobody’s playing 1-3 here with anything approaching the rent or child support money.

I don't get the part about folding due to Villain's sizing. He bet a standard 3x plus 1 limp. Definitely call, 3b would be overplaying, especially against a tilted player.

Flop is interesting as he bet around just 1/3, and especially since we also have a backdoor fd, I'd lean towards the big boy XR (5-6x) against many people, but considering he's tilted, I'd just call. You might still be able to either stack him off when you hit the turn, or maybe rip it in with a combodraw.

I'm saying on this board, as compared to many other boards, it is very unlikely we have two pear. We most likely don't have Q2, right? We most likely don't have 92, right? Q9o, really? There's all of 3 combos of Q9s, I'll give you those. All's I'm saying is we ain't repping much on this flop, apart from the obvious draws (of which there are approximately one million).

GcluelessreppingnoobG

Flop is fine as a call or a raise IMO. Given the game flow, I would prefer to call.

As played, I would overbet the turn. $150 looks good.

Besides sets and Q9s, I think AQ is a clear XR on this board against these sizings too.

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