Dark check / dark jam on ace-high board from mid-reg at 1/3

I think it's fine, provided you called. I'm expecting to see 66/33 here a lot, but then I always do. I don't like that we've the Kd, but w/e.

Probably sizing up to like 25 on the flop. (I've already written before about same-betting sometimes leading to aggro spew, though maybe we want that here?) Calling the x-r. Need an OMC read to fold.

Turn sizing is bizarre. I'd think V would go like b60-75 then b70-ish again with value vs b105/b33 in the dark. Though jeez, why didn't he shove if he's going to bluff? I might think about folding turn if V was much deeper.

Not folding river when we need ~20%, pretty much all draws bricked, and V is this bluffy and aggro. Also think V 3!'s AQ pf. Again, I expect to see 66 here. Hopefully a quick muck instead.

I was thinking about having the Kd in our hand in game. In theory I know we shouldn't like it, but here I thought it was actually ok, if not good.

My reasoning was that he might 3B pre with KQs/KJs, but might not with QXs. If he gets to the flop with a combo like QJdd, he blocks some AQ/AJ combos in our range, and has a draw to the second nuts, plus his 1P outs may be good if we have TT or worse.

I guess my thinking was that having the Kd in our hand makes it more likely he has flush draws, not less likely, when he just flats pre. And of course on the flop I have the BDFD to go with my TPTK.

I may be totally wrong about all that. It's happened before.

I'm fine with preflop.

SPR is 10. Are we comfortable playing for stacks in an SPR 10 pot against this guy (i.e. hoping he has AQ/AJ and calls down for stacks over 3 postflop streets)? Personally, I'm not. Against a guy who can bluff, and it being difficult for him to have a flush draw (with Ad/Kd being out), I think this is a nice time for a checkback with TP on the flop.

Already I'm hating life facing the check/raise (which we completely eliminate with a check back). I really think if we're betting that against most we should make a disciplined fold to check/raises, and if we're not comfortable doing that then lets check back and get to showdown / not involve stacks.

I don't make it to the turn this way, but I now fold. But this is a huge reason I just fold the flop as a bet is coming after check/raise like almost always.

River doesn't complete a flush (which again are severely limited) but it's the next worse card as overplayed AQ gets there. But you could argue we've committed ourselves by now (which really goes all the way back to the flop).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I discounted AQ, as he'd likely 3B that hand pre. I think his most likely AX holdings are going to just be AX with a worse kicker, or aces-up, but not AQ. More likely A6s or A3s, which just isn't that many combos - 2 of A6s and only 1 of A3s.

Even with the Ad on board and the Kd in my hand, I think his BB defense range still has a ton of naked flush draws in it - QJs, QTs, Q9s, probably Q8s, JTs, J9s, J8s, all the way down with all the suited connectors and a lot of the suited one and even two-gappers. I think he has all the 54s combos here.

Of course he could have flopped a set with 66 or 33. That's 6 combos. I'm not sure he'd always x/r's sets on ace-high boards. If he does, because it's two-tone, I'd think he'd x'r more than 2.5x, if he's worried about me having FD's.

While I do think a flop x/r is going to be followed by a big turn bet at some frequency, possibly a high one, I think it's less likely here, on this sort of board texture. His worse AX should slow down on a lot of turns. His 2P / sets may slow down on turns that bring in the most obvious draws. His draws may slow down on brick turns. It's hard for him to have many, if any hands that are going to take a line of x/r'ing small on the two-tone flop, and then bombing it on the turn, leaving less than 1/2 pot behind.

If he's going to x/r a big hand, but for a small size, even on a two-tone, somewhat draw-heavy, ace-high board, I'd think his turn size would just be all-in for roughly 2x pot, not something like 2/3 pot or less, which would give me good implied odds to continue with my draws, but also allow me to get away from some hands on the river.

To your first point - I probably wouldn't try to take this for 3 streets. I'm going to check back at some point on most run-outs. I'd definitely check back on draw-completing turns and turns that would make him some reasonable 2P's. I might also check back a turn K, another A, or a 6. I'd check back all draw-completing rivers.

Obviously, when he bombs turn, we have to think about his value range vs his bluffing range. I think he has 9 combos we lose to - 66, 33, A6s, and A3s, and a ton of bluffs we beat. I'd think his 2P and sets might use a larger x/r size on the flop, or over-bet jam turn. I'd think his 2.5x raise size is likely indicative of a draw.

The pot-size turn bet may not be the size he'd use with a draw, though. I'd be much more confident in the range I was giving him if he bet $100, just 2x his flop raise size, or less.

The dark-jam was something I can't remember seeing before, so I wasn't sure what to make of it. In game, I thought it looked like something someone would do with a bluff, hoping to look strong.

I mean, you make a lot of good points Doc, but it's ultimately ~70 straddles versus an aggrodonk (who probably views you as a LAG, if you both know each other.) and you have top/top on a pretty dry board. You get coolered, that sucks, but I'm not worried that you can't get it back from this guy.

The turn bet is just weird. Really curious for the reveal. I mean, I've been there---not knowing how much I've left in my stack, and my 'clever' overbet turn leading to an "Ah sh&t..." on the river when I remember how to count again. Probably similar here.

I agree. I thought it was a weird turn bet sizing given how little he left behind, especially when he jams dark after I call. WTH is that? Why not jam for 2x pot if you want to look nutted so I fold, or if you're just going with your hand regardless of the river bringing in one of the draws?

Even though I did sort of lose track of his stack size relative to the pot, I was thinking on the turn that I was probably committed to calling off the rest on the river if I didn't fold turn, unless the river is another diamond or brings in 54.

If he had some whack AX combo and rivered aces up on a non-diamond, I would just die. I wasn't sure what I was hoping for (other than a K), but an off-suit Q seemed pretty inconsequential.

This appears to be trying to justify playing for stacks with TPTK. MOST of the time when all the money goes in, you need better than top pair. I always keep that in mind when villain does crazy things.

In hindsight, it would have been better to check the flop, but you couldn’t see that check-raise coming - I would have done the same.

Money talks
I just don’t think villain plays a draw this way. If he was drawing, he would have jammed turn. I don’t think he wants a fold. I think a set does play this way, putting it in dark and hoping not to get outdrawn.

I fold turn, unless for some reason I felt like playing chicken with this guy. If you tell me that you called down and won, it had nothing to do with logic. You’re just playing the player

I see so many people overplaying AK

Flop I don't mind betting with Kd, although I probably still mix.

Half pot seems too much, and him x/r is now very bad ... but I almost always call hoping for a turn diamond.

Turn I just shrug fold without good reads that one pair is often good, the reads you supplied don't imply that he's got air here and I doubt he has enough "good draw" hands.

It's pretty easy for him to bet 75 or even 100 on the turn brick, him going for pot again looks like he wants to put all of the money in and/or charge your KdQd the max. So when you see the 150 you should treat it as 300 as I'd be expecting the other 150 to go in a huge amount of the time.

Don't think I've ever seen x/r flop; pot turn; dark shove as a bluff.

Maybe some chance he has AK or even AQd that thinks it's going for value? But even that unlikely thing seems less likely with a dark shove.

If we had a read he can go insane with hands like 9d7d or Td8d/8d7d then river might be close, but probably still better to fold turn.

To be fair even A6/A3/63 don't make much sense, so given he's only repping 7 combos. of better hands he doesn't need many missed draws combos. for a river call to be fine.

I totally forgot about this thread.

I did end up calling. He had A6s.

With the benefit of hindsight, I'd previously given his game too much respect, but prior to this hand, I hadn't seen enough to realize it.

My thinking in game was that his line looked too aggro-bluffy overall, and didn't make sense with thick value, especially the dark jam before seeing the river.

After the hand, he told me he jammed dark because he was worried he wouldn't follow through and jam on a "bad" river card, which solidified that I'd definitely given his game WAY too much respect. He could have x/r'd bigger on the flop and over-bet jammed turn, or checked river, and called if I bet, or check-folded if he didn't think I'd bluff or value bet thinly enough.

The irony is that I thought his dark jam was meant to look strong, and avoid hesitation or chickening out by not barreling with his bluff on a brick run-out. It looked like he was scared I'd call, and wanted me to fold. He was scared, but for a completely different reason.