Deep Stacked facing check raise on wet flop with the nuts

Click it to 350, jam turn. Or just rip it right now. When she raises 6x, she’s saying she has a good hand. Most players aren’t folding after they put in a post flop raise

In game I did not think she was bluffing. Funny I took about 30-45 seconds to make a decision which is a long time for me. I was strongly considering between min-click and jamming. I also wasn’t sure what I would do with board pairing turn or flush completing turning.

I won’t reveal so we can keep discussing.

This is a must 3bet board.

Her range sets/combo draws/2pairs/bottom end of straights.

She's never folding anything she x/r with. She likes her hand very much especially with such big x/r sizing on the flop.

So yea just ship and pray it holds.

I think I’d make it 400 with the intent to jam any turn. Jamming is tempting too but I think it’s too much of an overbet. We have and are repping AK, the hand everyone always puts people on. We need to try to convince Villain that it’s OK to try to draw out on us.

In game I was thinking most of the flush draws were also combo draws and may still find a call. I did worry about a turn flush completing card killing action on turn.

Good spot to be in but still pacing out what highest EV play is here.

Shove. Not a disaster if she folds her flush draw or set. Want to get all the money in or take the pot. Tricky if you raise smaller and a 3-flush hits or the board pairs and either way you might be drawing dead.

Agreed
Could easily be up against the same hand.
I don’t want to get cute in this situation.

She just made a massive raise in position with a 3rd player behind in a spot where we as pfr have all the good hands. This screams set or straight or combo draw that’s likely not folding. Jam.

You gii 82% to win. Not totally surprising. Fish call raises with QTo. Then want to protect their hand on the wet board, not seeing that 2-pair isn't that good on that board. Still good 2/5 games.

Grunch:

PRE - raise bigger. At least $20. Wouldn't hate $25.

FLOP - I think we might be able to c-better bigger, like full pot, on this board. Otherwise, the $30 seems fine. As played, when V raises, I might click it back to $330, with a plan to jam any turn that isn't a heart or a board-pair.

V's repping 2P+ for value, but it seems unlikely she's got QQ or JJ. She might have TT, QJ, JT, or QT, as well as the bottom end of the straight. It also seems unlikely that she has AKhh and is free-rolling us, but she could have K9hh.

For semi-bluffs, she could have AJhh, KJhh, AXhh, KXhh, J9hh, and maybe some other pair + draw combos.

If you click it to $330, I'd think she'll have a very hard time folding any of those hands for another $150. If you started $1k eff, you should have $655 left getting to the turn, with $700 in the pot. As long as the turn isn't another heart or a board-pair, I'd just rip it in.

She'll be getting a little bit better than 2:1 on a call. If she has any of the hands that she's repping for value, or even any of the semi-bluffs, she may flick in the call.

Oof. That's just a terrible run-out, no matter what you do on the flop.

So...I understand the jam, but I don't think it's the highest EV play. It's the sort of thing we do when we don't want to have to make a difficult decision on a later street.

The worst-case scenario here would be if she had AKhh and is free-rolling us. We're also a very slight dog vs AKdd. Otherwise, unless she has some other AK combo, we have her crushed, and we should be thinking about how to get more value from her before an action-killing turn or river card.

That said, and in your defense, her 6x raise on the flop, after you c-bet into two opponents, including the BB who could also have a piece of the board, indicates she REALLY likes her hand, so an argument can be made that she's not folding, even if we jam.

Even if you just min-clicked it on the flop, this would be a tough hand to play on the turn 4h that brings in V's FDFD combos. With $700 in the pot, and $655 behind, there wouldn't seem to be a size we could bet-fold, and I'd think we're only getting called by a flush or a set, so I'd probably just check, which of course would allow all her 2P combos to check back and boat up on the river.

Again, I'm not beating you up or pretending I'd always find this line. But if we clicked it back on the flop, check turn and check/fold river, we save our remaining $655. It sucks to flop huge and fold on a later street, but sometimes it's the best play.

Yea I think I have her a bit too much credit after seeing her show down here. I think she was just running really hot and it gave me the perspective she was super solid reg. She still had solid fundamentals and was better than most of the open limpers and super passive people at the table though.

Multiway I sized down. I generally max my bet size on flop ME 75% but could be convinced to bet more in this exact situation. On this board heads up I am actually probably overbetting pot 125% or whatever geometric sizing would be.

So this is the crux of me posting this hand. I essentially decided to jam because I was scared to make a tough choice on a flush completing or board pairing turn. Navigating these stack depths I still think I need to improve. With that said, I had a lot more fun playing deep stacked at $2/5 than my $1/3 despite booking a fairly big loss on the session overall.

The problem is that we're not 82% against her entire range. And we'll often just be letting the worst parts of her range off the hook when they snap fold to our jam. When she calls, we won't have as much equity compared to the range she had before she folded the worst hands in it.

Yes, that's correct. We won't always know if the turn card will help our opponent or not. That's not a good enough reason to massively over-bet jam the flop with the nuts.

There are 9 board-pairing cards, and 9 flush cards that can come out. Additionally, ant A, K, 9, or 8 puts a one-liner to a straight on board, so that's another 6 cards that will potentially kill the action. With 24 potential action-killing cards, we won't like the turn close to half the time.

Set aside that she had QTo. Let's assume that she only calls the jam with hands that are 1P + a flush draw or better, in terms of how much equity those hands have (they have around 40%). What's our equity vs that range? Maybe 50%, with some potential chops possible?

So, yeah, if we want to jam and hope we hold, we can do that. Or, we can click it back, and play some poker on the turn. It'll just be a brick a little more than half the time, and we can jam for slightly less than half pot, knowing our equity vs her calling range has improved.

For example, KJhh is 39.2% to win, 7% to chop on the flop. On a 2c turn, it drops to 20.2% & 4.7%.

I'd rather lay her 2:1 on the turn when she's a 4:1 dog than lay her 2.4 to 1 on the flop when she may only be a 2.5 to 1 dog. Especially if we can get more value from her on the flop and risk less while doing it.

Yes, it was. AKhh would be the worst case. Are you just analyzing equity after the reveal? We should be considering her entire range, not just her actual hand.

All that's true. We'd love to get more value from all those hands. If we jam and they fold, it's a disaster.

It's easy to look at what happened and say it was the correct play when it worked out. It's also easy to say it wasn't when it doesn't. We should be assesing the decisions along the way, taking into account all possibilities / likelihoods, regardless of the eventual result.

If a bad card hits, we check. Standard poker theory. If she bets, we start over-folding the lower equity portions of our range.

It's hard for her to turn a worse value hand into a bluff on the turn when we raise pre, and then bet-3B the flop. If she was semi-bluffing on the flop and the obvious draw comes in, and she bets, she probably has it. If the board pairs and she bets, she probably has it.

Do you really think she's going to bet 2P or a set on a 4h turn, when she loses to straights, flushes, and higher sets? Is she going to stab at it with 1P + a draw on a turn T? Is she stabbing at it with QJ, that loses to AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AK?

You mean the flop, I take it?

Yes, we all agree her action very likely indicates a strong hand. That doesn't necessarily mean she isn't folding to a 3B/over-bet jam.

We don't know she has QT or that she'll call with the bottom of her flop raising range. Who cares if she folds significant equity, when we have the nuts? We can't spend her surrendered equity, only her money.

We don't want her to fold. We want her to continue, so we can get more value from her.

Theory says we're supposed to size down multi-way. This is a spot where I'd deviate and size up. Conversely, I might not bet as much heads up. My reasoning is that we're only against one range rather than two.

The BB and BTN ranges are both likely to be really wide pre, such that our equity against both isn't as high. If we were heads up, I'd be focused more on getting value rather than equity protection / denial.

Ultimately this is going to be a more difficult situation when we're HU and OOP vs the BTN or monkey in the middle vs BTN and BB. Even HU and IP vs the BB, it's a balancing act to get value vs protecting a strong but vulnerable hand.

Just want to add that her 6x raise may mean she isn't folding to a jam. But it may also indicate her hand is vulnerable, and she'd like us to fold. If it's the latter rather than the former, our 3B jam is just letting her off the hook.

I think it's a cognitive error to say we made the correct decision after seeing she had QT and we got it in with the best of it. It would also be an error to say the decision was incorrect*because* she boats up on the the river (as opposed to *when*), though that was always a possibility on the flop.

If we know for certain she's calling the flop jam with her entire range, a min-click is still better, if it means we can lay her a worse price to call our turn jam on a brick, or save ourselves a PSB on a bad turn/river. When we don't know for certain she'll call the jam, and have to allow for the possibility that she'll fold, the min-click becomes that much better.

Many players, including many of us here, have made or even continue to make that mistake.

Last session, an opponent flopped top 2P A6cc) vs me (AhKd) on Ad6d3c . He x/r'd flop small (2.5x my 1/2 pot c-bet), barreled turn for full pot, then dark-jammed before the river was dealt. After the hand he told me he dark-jammed so he wouldn't have to make a difficult decision on a bad river card.

I've probably seen this guy in my local card room a dozen times in the past 3 years. He's clearly a reg, and prior to that I'd have thought he was solid.

I am not drawing conclusions on the results per se. But the fact she overplayed (in my estimation) QTo and called off my very strong 3 bet overjam makes me conclude that the jam was the highest EV play since I think I get paid off on blank turns but she may have found a fold on heart or four straightening turn. In essence I do not think she folds any of her xr range on the flop but would find folds on turn. At least that’s my logic but I am open to alternative conclusions.

Flop sizing not good from either perspective. Pretty sure theory bets larger and we def should in practice.

Genuinely surprised this hand generated this much response. I would oversimplify this turn too by shoving vs someone who clearly isn't folding. I can't even come up with a range that we don't have crushed that warrants playing this hand more passively because we hate some turns.

Villain wants to get in 200bb when we have the nuts, oblige her.

While improving how to play deep stacked is important, I don't think this hand can offer you much of value, just being honest here, you don't have to agree ofc. I think the hand plays itself and I wouldn't play flop any different because I am of the opinion that 6x raise is simply never folding to a shove.

Well this is where I derive value from the discussion. In game, I did know if the overbet jam for 200bb would fold out some of her range that I obviously wanted to call. I am more used to 100bb where this is a trivial 3b shove.

I don't want to suggest your flop shove is terrible. It isn't. Whether or not it's the highest EV play will depend on our assumptions about her range, how much of it calls or folds, at what frequency, etc.

We have conflicting incentives here. Every argument for jamming flop has a counter-argument for not jamming flop, If we do NOT jam flop, and we see a turn with money behind, there's another argument to have over whether or not to jam on that card.

I think Pablito makes a salient point - this hand may not teach you much that's useful. He's saying it's because the hand plays itself. I'm saying it's because the arguments for jamming or clicking back the flop and seeing a turn are both valid, so it's hard to really screw this situation up.