Couple of hands vs short stacks

Couple of hands vs short stacks

Another turbo offline tournament.
7-max table, 14–15 players left, avg stack ~23k, 5 prizes.
Blinds 800/1600 + BB Ante.
I have 18k with 2 shorter stacks at the table, all other players cover me.

Hand 1:
I'm in the BB with 18k (before posting blind and ante). The short stack open-shoves 6,200 from the BU (his 3rd shove in the last orbit). I have J6s. Is this ever a call?

Hand 2:
Very next hand, I'm in the SB with ~15k behind. The HJ min-raises to 3,200 from a 14k stack (he recently doubled up with KK and had been sitting very tight before that). I have A5s. Is this always a shove?

27 April 2026 at 06:43 PM
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7 Replies


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Hand 1 - for chip EV it's a no-brainer. Calling 4,600 to win 10,200 - better than 2 to 1 and you have a suited high card.

The ICM question is the factor here. Even though only 14-15 are left, only 5 get paid. When figuring ICM, it's really more important to think in terms of the percentage of players that have to bust before the money than in the strict number (although these ideas converge across field sizes when you get down to one or two players). With two-thirds of the field needing to bust before you cash, I don't think the ICM pressure is high enough on you to fold.

Hand 2 - by GTO I'm pretty sure it's a pure shove. But our opponents are likely not playing a GTO range. Whether it is one here largely depends on whether you think villain is only raising really strong to call here or will have raise-folds.

The nice thing about A5s is that you can get better aces to fold to a shove and you still have solid equity when called. But of course we are not trying to get our stack into a 33% equity spot (although even against KK and AKs that is our equity), so the fold equity really matters here. And that's down to your assessment of the kind of tight villain is.


With the 1st one you are probably right. I understood the odds, but somehow hesitated calling there since losing third of my stack felt crucial. And offline ranges are usually tighter.
But the pot odds dictate, indeed. Question is where is the borderline? Would that mean any broadway card in my hand is a call?

In the second hand, I was confused with thraise from <9BB stack instead of shove. Usually translates power. And the player seemed rather tight to me. So I folded again.
The reiser was called by BB, and revealed QJo after they checked through till teh end��


by zMike3000

But the pot odds dictate, indeed. Question is where is the borderline? Would that mean any broadway card in my hand is a call?

Checked the odds calculator, it seems like almost any 2 cards give at least 30% equity here.
Is this really a call with any-two?


Any two, no. You do have the right instinct that there is some premium because we don't want to lose chips off our stack, especially as short as we are, in a breakeven spot. But on a stack that short, villain's shoving range is going to have to be pretty wide, because it's the best spot he's getting until he goes through the blinds again. And you're 45% against A2o, for example, which is a 14% edge over what you'd need at chip EV (large enough that you should take the spot even with the ICM factored in).

As long as you aren't dominated, or don't run into AK / AQ / KQ suited of your suit, it's a fine call. I was going to say from some poking around that any suited hand with a paint card or that can make a straight is a fine call, but even 72s is getting the right price against AKs of a different suit.

Get something like Equilab where you can plug in a range you think villain is shoving and test various hands against it. You might be surprised at how wide you can call a spot like this.


I'll also add that even though you're short, you're pretty far from the money and it's a turbo, so there isn't much risk premium when it comes to passing on a profitable spot. ($EV hasn't diverged much from chip EV, and even if you have a skill edge in postflop play, the size of your stack and the speed of the levels means you don't really get to use it.)


Hand 1 is a call. Three shoves in a single orbit means his range is basically any two cards, and J6s is probably 45-50% equity against that. The effective amount you're risking is small enough that the price is fine even with some ICM pressure.Hand 2 is always a shove. Flatting leaves you with around 6bb which is unplayable, and A5s is way too strong to fold with 9bb effective. Tight player or not, you're at worst flipping and sometimes crushing him.


by TournamentDataGuy

Tight player or not, you're at worst flipping and sometimes crushing him.

Well, not really. At worst you're a 2:1 underdog and you're never crushing him (I mean, is he really raise/calling K5s there?). But you can get a lot of folds, and if he's opening big kings and queens (easier to see in hindsight that he is), you're ahead of those too.

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