When is a $⅓ recreational ready for $⅖: win rate versus skill leaks?
TLDR: Given my leaks and lineup conditions, what benchmarks (winrate/sample/skill confidence) should I hit at $1/3 before taking shots at $2/5?
I just came back to the game in March and last played 2022. I am running very hot over my first 41 hours back (20bb/hr) not including HH jackpot win. This is a meaningless sample size and quite frankly I am being hit by the deck and haven’t really been in many cooler spots.
Main game options: $⅓ max buy in $400 with a lot of short stacks buying in. The rake is 10%, max $6 with jackpot drop up to $3 at $30. No flop no drop. The rake is the same at $⅖ but the jackpot drop is much more favorable ($3 comes out at like $100 I think). Max buy in $1000. Most of the jackpot drop is HH and there isn’t a progressive BBJ. 5/10 occasionally runs on weekends and there is semi-private $10/25.
My current plan: I am targeting logging 300-500 while fixing leaks and getting more confidence before considering moving up. When I was last playing 2022 I was playing $⅖ and ran hot my first 100 hours but got crushed in one session that wasn’t coolers just completely outplayed by regs which triggered me into a forced cool off for a week at which time I got really discouraged and walked away from the game. I was too proud to go back down to $⅓. My main mental game leaks are ego and perfectionism. I don’t want to repeat my prior mistakes.
Self analysis of my play:
I am a studied recreational. I take notes on hands every session. I am trying to formalize a way to systematically review them to improve my game. I have read Acevedo’s Modern Poker Theory, have used GTOw aggregate reports in the past to build my own heuristics and consume all the free stuff on YouTube. I have a foundational understanding of poker theory and can hand read competently for my level.
I derive most of my EV by playing TAG style and aggressively attacking limpers, squeezing and playing a lot of pots as the in position aggressor and just realizing equity with better ranges. I am capable of making exploitative folds. Examples recently include folding KK pre versus OMC 5b shove and folding bottom two pair on semi connected board against passive player showing aggression.
Weaknesses: While I would define my flop play as “competent”, I tend to get lost as the game tree advances on the turn and river and get passive on scare cards (flush/straight completing cards). I like to lead the dance, but if someone pushes back on my aggression I tend to wilt like a delicate flower. I have a lot of trouble navigating pots OOP in all configurations. I am uncomfortable in 3b and 4b pots and play pretty passively compared to SRPs. I underbluff in high-pressure river spots. Most of my bluffs are leveraging range advantage on flop/turn but I won’t attack capped ranges aggressively enough. I try to overcompensate at times with poorly constructed bluffs.
I think my leaks are able to be hidden at $⅓ currently but will get wrecked by a reg filled lineup at the $⅖ in at my casino. Once I study more and patch up my leaks perhaps I can take some shots on weekends where the pool is softer. I am open to constructive feedback and I am not afraid to put in the work to get better. Let me know what you all think.
7 Replies
The thing about poker is it’s not what you know; it’s how you apply what you know.
Sounds like you’re pretty dedicated and have a good grasp of where you are. Getting out of the way when someone pushes back on your aggression, is probably why you’re running well at low stakes.
Though many do, I personally don’t find much difference in 1/3 & 2/5, other than variance. There’s some terrible players playing 2/5 at times & strong players playing 1/3 at times.
Locate the bad players and try to play with them. Sometimes the regs are easier to beat than the recs that show up. You need to learn the style of the people in your room.
Seriously, you can buy in at 2/5 for 500 like you do at 1/3. Don’t act like those guys are playing at a higher level, just play the game. There are just not that many really strong players in a room at any time, but you need to know who they are. You also need to know the bad players and play in their games.
Not sure I could assess my strengths and weaknesses and you’ve done a fine job. Just don’t start over-thinking and level yourself into bad decisions. You can’t force things in this game. You look for good situations and take advantage.
The experience factor is helpful in determining how to approach situations. You have to play to learn. I would suggest that taking notes on player styles is more valuable than hand histories.
Keep your enthusiasm
Can tell you’re probably further ahead than I was at your age. Again, a lot of people know a lot of things about poker, but there’s very few that make great decisions in real time.
I wish you success. The poker journey is one of the greatest things in my life. It’s exciting to sit down to play as every session is unique. The challenge to master the game is ‘not putting in the work’ but the joy of finding solutions and improving every day. Good Luck!
Seriously, you can buy in at 2/5 for 500 like you do at 1/3. Don’t act like those guys are playing at a higher level, just play the game. There are just not that many really strong players in a room at any time, but you need to know who they are. You also need to know the bad players and play in their games.The experience factor is helpful in determining how to approach situati
Appreciate your time and insightful comment. Thank you for the well wishes. The next session I play if I am feeling on my A game and it seems like a good lineup I may sit down and buy in $500 at the $2/5.
In terms of my HH notes I also add player notes for context when reviewing. Example: Reads: Older, very passive (no opens in 2.5 hrs). Limp/calls strong hands (even JJ). No bluffs seen. Sailor tattoos so maybe ex-Navy.
Just take a shot at 2/5 and see how you do. You won't know until you dip your toes in the water.
Getting lost on the turn and river is a pretty big leak. I built my bankroll playing against regs who had similar problems.
That being said, I don't think playing 1/3 is hiding that leak. I think what's hiding that leak is playing short stacks, where the turn/river decisions are far less consequential than when you are playing deep.
So as someone else suggested, perhaps if you want to take a shot at 2/5 you just buy in short. Maybe even less than $500 would work in your favor. Then you can try to double up and either play deep with some of your stack being profit, or just leave when you're not feeling comfortable with the stack size and pocket a smaller gain.
Getting lost on the turn and river is a pretty big leak. I built my bankroll playing against regs who had similar problems.That being said, I don't think playing 1/3 is hiding that leak. I think what's hiding that leak is playing short stacks, where the turn/river decisions are far less consequential than when you are playing deep.So as someone else suggested, perhaps if you wa
That is a good point. I would be out of my depths 200bb deep navigating deeper into the game tree. It is pretty easy to stack off against calling stations 30-50bb with top pair or high equity bluffs at $1/3.
I actually just played 40 minutes and did buy in for the full $1000, but decided to play tighter than my normal pre-flop ranges.
I only played 3 hands
AA open $15 no callers
BB defended with QTo against BTN open $20 open and SB call. I flopped 2nd pair. Flop checks through. Turn blank SB leads I call BTN folds. River check check i take it down.
Most interesting hands: 8-handed
UTG1 $20, LJ 3b $60, I cold 4b $150 from SB with AKo. Only LJ calls.
Flop J85r. I check figuring this flop favors PFC in this configuration and I have some SDV and would hate getting check raised. V checks. Turn 2 completing rainbow board. Check, villain checks and seems done with hand. River 6. I check and villain checks and I win.
I was very nervous during this hand so I racked up after the next orbit.
The villain was young mid twenties looking kid. I actually knew someone at the table outside of poker who neither of us realized we played poker haha. I texted my friend for a scouting report who told me V is best reg at the table. The V seemed very interested in my 4b sizing and I wasn’t sure if he was using that as a barometer of my competency since I was an unknown to him. I thought he would punish my triple check line but thankfully didn’t.
The 4b sizing does look really online or tourney, tbh. Or a please call me size live. Depends on remaining stacks obv, but I'm making it 225 or so from the SB. Nice job on the session!
Your original question is more of a bankroll mgmt question than a skill question, IMHO.
The 4b sizing does look really online or tourney, tbh. Or a please call me size live. Depends on remaining stacks obv, but I'm making it 225 or so from the SB. Nice job on the session!
Your original question is more of a bankroll mgmt question than a skill question, IMHO.
Effective stacks were $1000ish.
My general formula (assuming no limpers, non-squeeze):
3b
OOP 4x
IP 3x
4b
OOP 2.5
IP 2.2
Versus all-in if stack depths are shallow
In terms of bankroll, I have a good career so I can replenish the bankroll. While in theory it is “infinite”, I think if I lost $20k and I felt it was unlikely to be variance I’d take that as a sign I can’t beat the game and walk away. So let’s say $20k.
I am going to try to do some stuff to suck up to my wife to be able to play more weekend nights. I have mostly been playing random weekday afternoons and evening when my work/family schedules allow. Playing the highest game on random Tuesday afternoon is negative EV for me at my current skill level.
