5/5/10 Foxwoods AA weird spot?

Oof.

Fast population reads for next time...

Stoned/drunk kids will show up with random stuff. More drunk/stoned = more random the stuff.

40yo+ white guys can be somewhat sticky pre, and will try to out-play you post by getting aggro when you pump the brakes.

Middle Eastern men hate folding pre, and will over-play most of their range post. They'll get it in with a range that is much wider than you'd think.

With AA including the NF blocker, I'm never folding to this cast of characters, unless all hell breaks loose. They have to go full on wild west shoot-out before I'll release, and even then, I might still gamble on getting there.

Ok so next question. How bad of a play is the fold?

Depends on your assessment of V's range. Garick's post here:
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showp...

came up with about the same EV estimate as when I thought about it. A few %, & probably a 50-75 buck mistake. Not great, not terrible. If dumping 80 straddles to an 'obvious' set is going to tilt you, probably OK to think you can find a better spot.

I'm just now realizing I misread the OP, and thought it was monotone, with us having the re-draw to the nuts.

Now seeing that it's two-tone, I think it's closer, and I might also find a disciplined fold on the flop, partly because we have the NF blocker in our hand.

It's a hard call, and a hard fold, without much of a live read. I wouldn't expect anyone to jam with worse than 2P on the flop.

I wouldn't pay attention to V's comment about your c-bet sizing. He's an idiot, and was spazzing. He's ahead of AK on the flop. Why's he trying to make you fold? Unless he meant specifically AKcc. But he can't assume we'd always fold AKcc here.

Instead, listen to me. I'm not a (complete) idiot.

Check back or bet smaller on the flop. We have an over-pair with a blocker to the NFD. We can make a delayed c-bet on just about every turn card. Alternatively, if we bet small and get x/r'd for a reasonable size, we can continue. It sucks to bet big and get jammed on, and this is a board where opponents will have more raises, both for value and with bluffs.

In fairness, I said that's his range if none of it is stupid. I think a fold is a bigger mistake than that, as I think there are at least 5 combos of hands that are stupid to play like that in his range, and that's before seeing results. I'd be shocked if the mistake isn't at least $100, though I'm on my phone, so no math right now

This is still somewhat difficult because we don't really know if he shoves 77, or draws ... or what BB calls/folds and what Straddle calls/folds to the shove (esp. how/if that changes when we don't fold).

But, if V has Q9o and shoves then we can assume he has at least A9o/K9o/J9o/T9o/98o and so we are absolutely crushing his range HU, like 65%+, because offsuit 9x is a giant number of combos. that it dominates any sane/value range you can put in.

Main thing I'd say is: Pay a lot more attention to wtf everyone is doing, even when you are folding every hand.

Thanks guys. Appreciate the feedback

Yeah, weighting V's range is super important. At the table, I like to just simplify it to something like 1/4 sets/2p, 1/2 combo draws with strong equity, 1/4 worse (bare draws, bare 9s, smaller pps, etc.). Then I'll assign an approx equity to each and average. So in this case, my table math would look like 1/4 of his range has ~80%, 1/2 has like 50%, and 1/4 like 20%. The two extremes cancel each other out, so we're about a flip, but with the money in the pot it's a clear call or we give up our share of it, which is about $230.

Sitting at pokerstove, it's hard to range him well knowing results, but if we go with what I said before about the value range and add 5 worse combos (but none of them low equity spazz, all at least a pair or a bare draw), that puts him at 52.6%. That's pretty close to my napkin math above. Note that if that range is accurate (and yes, that's a huge if), folding is about a $190 mistake.

I definitely wasn’t playing my A or even B game. I normally would never have folded. And would have rejammed. But I was so confused. In the moment. I just folded cutting losses

I dunno man. I don't know how 5/5/10 at Foxwoods plays, but in a lot of games, against most opponents, I think you'd be making a good and disciplined fold.

Plenty of people can find a light squeeze pre (or a wide limp-3B pre) over a small raise and a couple calls. Not nearly as many are capable of finding a flop over-bet check-jam in a four-way pot with just a weakish top pair (or a bluff) on a fairly connected, 9-high, two-tone board, after limp-calling pre.

Like, no one here was putting him on just TP. We all expected to see 2P+ for value or some sort of combo draw as a semi-bluff. If you consistently call it off in spots like this, I think you'll be losing a lot of these pots.

If you have more of a read, and you know an opponent will make plays like this with just 1P, it's a different story and more of a sigh-call.

If you've seen him limp pre with all his small and middling PP's, and only RFI with his bigger pairs, but also seen him limp in with a lot of suited connectors and suited gappers, and you haven't seen him over-play thin value, this is just a snap fold. I'd feel much better calling or re-jamming without the Ac in our hand.

I wouldn't beat yourself up, or let this hand lead you to get married to good starting hands when the pot goes multi-way. If V is going to punt like he did in this hand, you'll have more opportunities to make a fair catch.

Folding your hand this shallow is def not +EV. Easy call.

We’ve all been there. It wasn’t a terrible fold.