Unusual spot for me - first hand at the table w AJo

How many opponents in your pool are capable of doing this for 1.5 PSB for a rather large $375 bet at 1/3 NL?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Fold.

All of this.

Result:

I xb the flop, looks like a nice hand to have as two streets. I fold to the flop raise vs. an unknown.

AP I xb the turn.

AP I fold the river.

this looks & feels a lot like flop two pair or a set, check back when the flush comes on the turn and then shove on the river with a boat.

river is a muck for me.

if we're betting the turn when the flush comes it's actually as a bluff, unless we think he's capable of check raising flop with a non flush gut shot or a worse ace

c bet smaller

My opening range in the CO is 24 percent. I open 22+, 56s+, and Axs. I call limps or bets only with 22-66 with implied odds. Is that too nitty? Should I add ATo? A9o? Take out the low suited connectors?

I mean, how often do people on 2+2 say fold pre?

Even I'm playing ATo in the CO preflop (although I'll alternate between raising/overlimping depending on the situation). Having said that, I'll also trivially muck A9o, so it's cuspy.

GcluelessNLnoobG

The problem isn't whether Villain is going to bluff the river. It is a decent river to bluff, except that a lot of fish can't fold trip Aces regardless of how bad a call it would be.

The problem is what combos did the average rec choose to x/r an A84tt board into the PFR? Can we beat any of them? Hero is behind a tight-passive preflop AK/AQ, behind 2p that boated up on the river (honestly I think V's most likely holding), behind flush draws that made it. Heck, even the 76 gutter made a straight and 65 would have to be choosing to bluff arguable SDV! Virtually no low-stakes player, perhaps other than an identified maniacal whale, has enough x/r combos that are still air on this river to justify calling.

whatever, just open raise ATo its a decent hand to play in position and its not difficult to do so. fold A9o its not even close to ATo.

You bet the flop really big and got raised. I'm gonna just fold this one as we also block the ace of hearts. He has a lot of 2 pairs and sets in this spot.

I kinda like checking flop or betting small on this board.
A74 A93 A44

I like bigger bets like 60% on
AT4 AQ3 AK6

with the call and Turn kinda gin - we check or bet it. If you bet just follow thru with a river jam.

With this river and a jam from villian, i'm gonna just over fold unless proven otherwise. We get owned sometimes vs a weaker ace, but with the flush out there and he's not even scared of that - people rarely bluff jam.

Raise bigger pre. Check back or bet smaller on the flop.

Your small raises pre let them get to the flop with a wide range. Your big c-bets force them to continue with a much stronger range.

If you just like getting kicked in the nuts repeatedly, you could probably hire someone to do it for cheaper and not have to leave the house.

This happened to me yesterday only I had AKs and villain had A9o and flopped 2pair. I didn’t have the flush draw to slow him down, and he bet too big on the turn. I folded and he flashed his hand.

In your hand, I misread villain, but I wasn’t there

Beginning to think that playing more Ax type hands might be plus EV just for the chance of flopping 2pair and villain not being able to get away from a strong ace that missed.

Maybe should start considering this like ‘set-mining’ Not going overboard, but is there merit to get out of line occasionally playing a bad ace to flop 2pair or fold?

The problem is you're only 2% to flop two pair, and another ~10x as often you're flopping a worse top pair. However, this kind of coverage does contribute to suited Ax wanting to see the flop in a lot of situations.

The question I wonder how often AK naked pays off when you hit 2pair? How often will it blow up (counterfeited) in your face?

The idea is to fast play and make a big ace chase when this situation comes up. I’ve seen it work just like I’ve seen AK call down with nothing against an obviously made hand.

But you are right, no need to force anything.

Plus if we flop two pair with an A there’s only 2 aces left for him to have

Totally agree that it’s something that is a lovely unintended byproduct of suited A wheel

I had a quick look in GTOwiz ... did 100bb 8max:

H opens LJ and V calls SB, HU.

V is supposed to lead almost half of A8s, 88, and most of 44. But checks 80% of range.

H bets 33% pot with 40% of range. AJ bets a lot, but of that AhJx checks more often ~65% ... and AhJs checks about 90%.

V in SB then mostly calls A8/88/44 (assume because most of the bluffs are also leading). Worth noting that KhQx mixes fold and call.

H almost pure calls with AhJx, but folds ~40% of the time with no heart and ~20% of the time with Js and no heart.

V pure checks A8s

H basically pure bets with AhJ, for 86% pot.

After x/x turn:
V bets 75% with A8

H mostly folds AJ, calling ~10% with AdJs/AdJc and about 25% with AdJh. The slivers of AhJx that get here are torn between call and shove.

Maybe worth noting that A4s pure shoves river.

Worth noting that V has a bunch of big flushes that play this way.

V's river bluffs are supposed to be: 98s/87s (mostly with spades) almost only 5s4s of 54s and 2h2. A bit of 7h7 too, although 6h6 pure checks.

The solver output helps illuminate why I didn't think V's line makes much sense.

I wouldn't think hero should be c-betting this flop huge with AhJx. I wouldn't think V would have many, if any x/r's when hero c-bets 80% pot.

The solver's big turn bet by hero is interesting. Is that a semi-bluff to make V fold his flopped 2P and sets? It would seem so.

I think I see the logic in it, but I don't like it against human opponents, with our remaining stack depth. There just won't be enough left behind to create enough fold equity to make it a profitable river bluff if V calls. Against humans, I think a small turn bet works better, and probably gets folds at about the same frequency, from about the same range.

I'd think checking back turn is probably the worst option. We can't expect to get paid if we river the nuts, and we can't necessarily expect V to fold 2P or a set if he checks and we jam on a brick. We're probably just losing if we check back, and torching if we jam.

When the river is another ace, V makes it easy for hero to fold when he jams. I doubt I'd bet 2/3-3/4 pot as V. It just doesn't look like a bluff often enough given the action and run-out. It just looks nutted.

I'd probably bet around $50 or $75 and pray hero comes over the top. I'd be cursing myself if hero just flat calls.