Call this shove on the flop?

Call this shove on the flop?

PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 123 BB (VPIP: 18.33, PFR: 11.58, 3Bet Preflop: 2.35, Hands: 314)
Hero (MP): 103.5 BB
MP+1: 106 BB (VPIP: 9.50, PFR: 4.15, 3Bet Preflop: 1.20, Hands: 243)
MP+2: 98 BB (VPIP: 21.05, PFR: 2.63, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
CO: 131.5 BB (VPIP: 24.70, PFR: 9.31, 3Bet Preflop: 2.48, Hands: 748)
BTN: 100 BB (VPIP: 8.91, PFR: 2.97, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 103)
SB: 151 BB (VPIP: 51.61, PFR: 6.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
BB: 73.5 BB (VPIP: 46.41, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 183)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 15.45, PFR: 14.66, 3Bet Preflop: 9.33, Hands: 235)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T

fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, fold, BB raises to 12.5 BB, Hero calls 9.5 BB, CO calls 9.5 BB

Flop: (38 BB, 3 players) T 9 8
BB checks, Hero bets 24 BB, CO raises to 119 BB and is all-in, BB calls 61 BB and is all-in, Hero ???

I'm happy getting it in against the fish in the BB. Not so sure about the CO though. Does the shove mean he has a set/straight? How likely is a player with his stats to show up here with worse?

09 April 2026 at 10:09 PM
Reply...

7 Replies


Earlier posts are available on our legacy forum HERE

Fold preflop and snap call flop


Close, I don't think you can fold because CO can play 88 and 99 the same way. Sometime a nit could have JJ or QQ but preflop makes it unlikely.


Always getting it in on the flop, and preflop I would fold - BB looks like a fish, but stacks are too short to set mine and they should have a very strong range here.


I Honestly don't give a crap about his stats. Would you judge your own play strictly on stats after 700 hands? Unless those stats are WAY out of line, you probably shouldn't. Judge based on play, not stats. What behavior has he shown that you've seen?

But, fine, let's assume to be true what you seem to be most afraid of right now - this is some reg you're up against, maybe even a micros crusher. maybe he binked the nuts. but he also might have a bunch of combos, he could have a set, and there's even a non zero chance he's bluffing (maybe close to zero tho). we have the top set, and there is dead money in there from somewhere. I'm calling and I dont care if I win or lose.

But I think the truly important point here is that you're actually asking the wrong question. The question shouldn't be "what are the odds he has the nuts" (against which you're still 30-ish percent, btw, but who cares). The question should be "what is his RANGE and what is my equity against that range?"


by rbrtioh

Always getting it in on the flop, and preflop I would fold - BB looks like a fish, but stacks are too short to set mine and they should have a very strong range here.

I would say after 200 hands, BB doesn't look like *anything* unless we can make an observation of some actual play. I'd put money on you having similar stats over some sequential batch of your own play in your database. His stack size is more of a tell than his stats.


I'm guessing you called what he have QJ?


by Crich

I'm guessing you called what he have QJ?

Spoiler
Show

Flop: (38 BB, 3 players) T 9 8
BB checks, Hero bets 24 BB, CO raises to 119 BB and is all-in, BB calls 61 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 67 BB and is all-in

Turn: (281 BB, 3 players) 2

River: (281 BB, 3 players) K

BB has A A, CO has 8 7

Hero wins 267 BB

Reply...