NL $1-$2 Set on turn facing overbet from OMC UTG reg
$450 effective
Villain is a reg OMC, normally passive pre, likely a long-term losing player
UTG (villain) raises to $15.
2 callers, Hero calls in MP with 3♥3♦, BTN calls.
Flop ($75): A♣ Q♦ 2♥
Checks through.
Turn ($75): 3♣
UTG bets $150 (2x pot).
Folds to Hero.
Hero?
4 Replies
Fold, he has aces.
OMC checks for deception in the hope that someone else will bet flop.
Now there are two clubs he’s scared of giving a free card and seeing a third.
Or you could persuade yourself he has a hand that you beat.
Yeah, I wouldn't normally fold a set on a board without likely straights or flushes. However, this looks like he was trapping. Not always aces. Could be QQ. Don't think it is AQ enough to gii. The check and then twice pot are very unusual and maybe a tell.
The problem here is that villain likely didn’t open UTG with AQ or A2 and if he doesn’t have 2pair, then it’s likely a set. Now the problem is that checking the flop fits more with 22 than QQ, unless villain was trying to let hero catch-up.
Honestly, I would feel confident with my read if I was sitting there. If this is a bad player OMC, his range could be wider & the tendency to overplay tp more likely. Could villain think he could bluff this crowd?
Against a decent tight passive player, I would fold. It feels weird folding a set, but it’s about relative hand strength and the fact that you only have 15 invested. If you are behind, you have no outs to catch-up.
2x pot bet into 4 people is too strong to ignore
I mean it's super exploitive play to fold here. You have to "know" that V doesn't raise AQ pre, and would never 2x pot with 2p or KQ fd.
I think a lot of people fool themselves into believing they know what others have. If V is that much of an open book, you should fold pre. And if you know V well enough to be so certain and fold a set here, then you should be winning boatloads off him.
You get set over set, whatever it's a cooler you are meant to lose. It's why set-mining low pps is overrated. I think there's enough value to be had from 2p and KQcc. I'm not sure AA just goes 2x when flop checks through. You went set mining, you hit your set.