J9c on a diamond board

Bluffing is about seizing the situation, and he can’t call without a diamond, so I don’t mind. You may have the best hand and be value betting. Your 2/3 pot bluff only had to work 40% of the time.

There are some players that hide in the weeds with a big diamond waiting to raise your bet.
There are some players that see through your line and raise to represent a bigger hand, forcing you to fold.

Wondered if flop K was a diamond, and how some villains might level themselves into a call from the turn checkback. Some say, flop bet, turn check, river bet is massively over-bluffed

But yea, against the population,
I’m good with it.

Grunch:

The prior hand history doesn't tell us much that would seem relevant to this hand. Maybe we can infer that he'll turn SDV into a bluff when he percives the need.

PRE - meh, I'd probably fold or just over-limp. I don't hate the raise over two limps, but if we're going to raise with a speculative hand, I'd want to go bigger.

FLOP - c-betting the K-high board for around 1/2 pot seems fine.

When V calls, I'd be putting him on 1P (mostly KX), or some sort of draw.

It would be helpful to know if the K on board is one of the diamonds.

TURN - If the board is Kx7d4dTd, I might just give up and check back, or bet pretty small, like $30.

If it's the Kd on board, I think we should barrel. We'd love to make him fold KX no diamond. I think we need to continue betting when we pick up the DGSSD. Bet around 1/2 pot, $45, maybe a tad less, like $40, and fold to a raise.

RIVER - depending on the suit of the K on board, I'd be putting him on Kx, low flushes, and some pure give-ups.

What size would you bet to get Kx to call? Maybe $50-$60? So if we're just trying to make Kx fold, maybe we can bet $75-$90.

If we don't think Kx is going to fold, maybe there are some random other hands, like 87, 76, and 65 that we can target to fold with a smaller bet, like $45-$50.

We're not trying to make him fold nutted hands. We just want to fold out the bottom of his range.

Alternatively, we can just give up and check back, expecting to lose almost all the time.

I like the bet. The sizing is good. You want him to fold a pair or a bad flush.

How bad a flush do we think he has here?

If you turned a flush and checked it twice, would you fold to a $60 bet into a $90 pot, when our opponent checked back on the turn?

I think we would need to know the suits of the cards on the flop. If hero could have more than a few lower flushes in his range, I wouldn't be too quick to fold to a 2/3 pot bet.

I wouldn't fold a K high flush. May or may not fold a Q high flush. I may fold J9dd. Probably folding 98dd, at least some of the time.

If the 7d, 5d and 4d are on board, it's hard for either player to have many low flush combos. 86dd and 63dd would be straight flushes. The low flushes in V's range would be 32, 62, 98, and J9.

Does he even show up with 32 or 62? Do J9 or 98 fold to a 2/3 pot bet? I dunno.

I'd think J9/98 are his worst flushes. I'm not trying to make him fold QJdd or better. Certainly not by betting 2/3 pot.

I'd mostly just be trying to make him fold hands that aren't flushes.

I can’t remember if the king was a diamond or not. But on the river I remember eliminating A d from Vs range since he didn’t lead river. And I remember thinking he will check call with a king flush. So maybe the King of diamonds was unseen.

I normally value bet nut flushes in this situation for 1/3 so about $30 here. I want to make it easy to call. I chose $60 here to make it a tough choice, a thinking player might think this is valuey, and to minimize a loss if called. 4 flush and 4 straight boards seem to be both under bluffed and under value bet.

I was trying to get small flushes to fold, which so far seems like the wrong hands to target.

Reveal later.

When you check back the turn, he's unlikely to give you credit for the nut flush on the river, because you would have bet the turn with the nut flush, or just the Ad as a semi-bluff.

With the T, 7, 5 and 4 of diamonds on board, there aren't many low flushes to fold out. He's probably not limp-calling pre with 32 or 62. 63 and 86 are straight flushes. The flushes in his range are going to be 98dd, J8dd, J9ss, Q8dd, Q9dd, QJdd, K9dd, KJdd, and KQdd

If he has a flush, whatever combo he has blocks some of the KXdd combos we're likely to have as the pre-flop raiser. In his spot, I might fold 98dd and J8dd. Maybe Q8dd. I don't think I'd fold QJdd or any KXdd combo.

Out of the 9 flush combos he has in range, we might be able to fold out 2, or maybe 3 at most.

We should be focusing on folding out his hands that aren't flushes.

V asks if I have a diamond. I don’t answer.
V fiddles with his chips. Counts out enough for a call. I’m expecting him to ask if I’ll show. V tanks some more and finally folds.

I do show mostly trying change my nit type image. There were two regulars at the other end of the table, unfortunately I don’t think either one was paying attention.

He tanked over a $60 bet?

I wouldn't show to let people know I got a bluff through. I might show just because I hate it when people tank over trivial decisions.

Really is amazing I don't have more friends.

I dunno. Maybe you found the perfect size to make him tank-fold TP.

Nice hand.