1/3 700 max plays like 2/5. Fold to river pot donk?

check/call flop; check/call turn; lead river

The most nutted line in live low stakes hold em.

175 into a final pot of 600 requires 29% to break even. This is a flush at least 90% of the time.

yep, bet more on turn. your turn bet will fold out a lot of his raggy pairs and gutshots anyway so you're targetting his decent Kings and his bigger draws, both of which should call a bigger bet. I'd be going $110ish

River

unless you think he's bad enough to be getting here with AK and clueless enough not to see river flush, it's hard to find many combos you beat

even if he's got a 7, you're chopping

it's a fold. albeit it's tough to fold if you're back from a very long lay off and you find yourself with 'I haz trips!'

Stack sizes?

My instinct is to bet 20 on the flop. You could also check. b>x. You want to get to showdown cheap.1/3 is my standard cbet multiway.

AP, obviously bet more on the flop, like 120.

AP, river is gross. Call, call, call, then bet out is a strong line. There are enough bad players who limp AK. But you lack a read. They obviously also bet the made flush.

I guess it’s a sigh fold?

Grunch:

PRE - raise bigger. At least $20.

FLOP - check back or bet smaller, like 1/4 pot, or at most 1/3 pot.

TURN - holy $hlt, you luckbox! I'd be sizing to the moon here, at least full pot, targeting all their inelastic Kx and draws.

RIVER - yuck.

Yes, this is almost always going to be a flush. I would tend to just over-fold here.

We're not that under-repped. If anything, we might be somewhat over-repped, considering that we could have 77/AA/KK, and maybe some slivers of A7s/K7s here.

If we had a read that V was capable of laying down the nut flush on a paired board, I could see an argument for turning our hand into a bluff, to rep a boat.

The problem is that it's 1/3 and we shouldn't be in the business of trying to make recs lay down flushes. If he has the Kd in his hand, it cuts down on the number of boat combos we can have. It also cuts down on the AK combos, but they never seem to think about that.

Seems like a pretty straightforward fold.

H needs ~30% to call here. While this is almost always some variety of KdXd passively played, and I agree that l-c, c, c, donk out for b70 means they have it, it 'could' be V turning a Kd into a bluff when the obv draw comes in with Aces up also now beating Kings up. I'm basically a payoff monkey looking for reasons not to call.

Also, this is live. See if you can get a reaction from V about hitting their draw, etc?

Agree that Turn should be a lot bigger.

Thanks for all the answers. Sounds like my thinking was in line - if this was larger stakes I probably snap call and expect to see KdX and flushes about equally. And I should have bet much larger on the turn.

An orbit or two later he took the same line multiway, everyone folded and he showed a set. Personally I thought at the time this meant he didn't have it vs me.

At the end of the evening he told me he didn't, but also didn't say what he did have.

Appreciated! Still left the two evenings of play a winner (albeit small)

Best,

Interesting..you are saying you would donk on scare cards. Doesn't 1/3 calling stations tend to over call draw cards and in this case have more premium hands than us? Not to mention they over call than over fold.

Maybe A7?

I think it’s always overfold in this spot
Mediocre hands in tow, flush comes in, someone bets, people figure he hit and they fold. I play in some wild games but they fold in this spot. Most of this forum is saying fold and dude has trips.

They over-call pre-flop and flop, but when the big money goes in they level themselves into folds. All you have to do is be willing to risk no one else has the flush.

I am not sure if it is always overfold, maybe we are picturing different player types. Donking at river is very hard to balance for sure, and I am indeed on the folding side in most of the cases as they come from bad players usually. I don't do river donk personally as I feel people overcall flush draws and hence they turns over flushes with high frequency by river. But if you get them to fold more than 50% of the times it works. Same with monotone board but that one is trickier as it is an obvious bluff spot.

I guess what I am saying is that it’s a very believable hand (unless they’re so clueless they don’t see the flush complete) and when you read villain as mediocre, he’ll probably lay it down.

“You’re supposed to know I wasn’t bluffing. I either had the nuts or a bluff and I rarely bluff”

Statement kinda flys right over the head of many low stakes players. They’re not paying attention to you and don’t know what you’re representing.

But I think the majority of the population sees the flush complete on the river and always think someone has it. Why not you?

Just curious on the statistics, for pots larger than 30bb, at what percentage do you see a river pot size+ donk bet directly get the V to fold in a HU? Would you say it works more than 60% of the time?

Heuristics are not meaningful for what you’re asking. Every situation is different.

Pulling a player along, pricing him out or pushing him out - these things are player dependent.

As you evaluate players:
Tight, Loose - Aggressive, Passive

Note also ‘How much risk they are willing to take’. Many are risk averse, but some like to throw around chips - some change from hour to hour or after a beat. Some players you should never bluff.

You have to evaluate each situation and each player in real time. My brute force problem is that sometimes I know I can make them fold, but there’s more value in letting them continue with their weak stuff.

The solver boys help you get the math right, but it often comes down to a game of chicken - you against villain with imperfect information.

Learning to read players is the most important skill in low limit poker.

I don’t think betting the flop makes much sense. We’re getting called a lot by Kx and better 7’s.

AP, On the turn we can go much bigger than 1/3 pot and get value from Kx an FD’s.

AP, his line just looks so nutted by the river. Against my 1/3 player pool this line by him is a flush very often. I don’t think he’s ever value betting worse and he’s not bluffing nearly often enough (28-30% of the time) to justify a call.
I fold the river.

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