Trips in a weird multiway spot vs passive rec — can we ever fold turn?

PRE - might be better to just over-limp this combo, in this configuration. If we're going to raise, I'd want to go bigger, using a size that's going to fold more of their ranges.

FLOP - c-bet smaller in a multi-way pot, especially when the board is so dynamic and all we have is a weak 1P. Probably just betting $20-$30, at most.

TURN - I'd probably click back this weird / small donk, and fold if we get 3B. As played, I don't think we should fold, getting such a good price.

What do you think his range is here? He's got one combo of 76s, and one combo of A7s. We beat 87s and 75s. I'd think his straights and sets either donk flop, check-raise flop, or donk turn when the BDFD appears.

I'd think if he was going to x/r the turn with a straight or set, he'd go bigger. He's really just repping boats and better trips, which is just 2 combos. Maybe he does this with 53s, but does he limp 53s pre, and then call our raise, with another player still in the hand? Is he getting here with 85s?

Is this the line he'd take with those better trips or a boat? Wouldn't A7s sometimes donk turn? Or raise pre? Wouldn't 76s sometimes raise pre, donk flop, or x/r flop? Wouldn't 76s sometimes trap by just check-calling again?

Even if we give him 66 and 44, that's just 6 more combos, and I'd think those would just play the same way 76s would.

The pot is $480. We only need to call another $100. We could have the best hand here, and we're not drawing dead when we're behind. If we're folding 97, what do we have that calls? Just straights and better?

How many straights do we have here when we raise pre over two limps? Are we doing that with 85s and 53s? I'd think not. Are we raising pre with any better trips combos that aren't exactly A7s? Other than A7s, all we have left that can call are boats and quads.

I don't think we should fold. I somewhat want to raise. I think his range here is going to have more semi-bluffs that aren't going to put any more money in on the river if we call and they brick.

If we're only losing to better trips and boats, and he's only got $200 behind, I think I just stick the rest in now, and make him call with his entire range.

The pot will be $780 and he'll only have to call $200. He'll be getting almost 4 to 1. I'd think any semi-bluff with reasonable equity would have a hard time folding.

Appreciate the detailed breakdown.. a lot of good thought here, but I think this is one of those spots where theory logic and live reality diverge pretty hard.

I think the biggest difference is how we’re modeling villain’s range after he takes this line.

This is a multiway pot, and he goes:
xc flop → check-raise turn after bet + call

In live pools, especially vs passive recs, this node is massively underbluffed. Like… close to zero bluffs most of the time.

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A few specific points where I disagree:

1. Value range is wider than you’re giving credit for

It’s not just “2 combos of boats / better trips”

Realistically includes:
- 66 (3)
- 44 (3)
- 76s (1)
- 87s (1)
- A7s (1)

And live players don’t play perfectly pre, so this can easily be wider. Plus, a lot of these hands do take this exact line — call flop, spring trap turn.

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2. “They’d play it differently” isn’t reliable live

I don’t think we can assume:
- sets raise flop
- straights donk turn
- trips always take passive lines

In practice, a lot of recs just:
→ call flop
→ wake up on turn

especially multiway.

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3. Bluff combos are being overestimated

Hands like 53s / 85s / backdoor spades:

I just don’t see passive recs turning these into a turn check-raise multiway. This is one of the lowest bluff frequency spots in live poker.

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4. Pot odds aren’t the full story

Yeah we’re getting a price, but vs a range that’s heavily boats + strong trips, our equity with 97 is actually pretty poor.

And once we call, river is basically a forced decision anyway given stack sizes.

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5. Raising turn seems like a punt

If we jam, what worse actually continues?

- worse 7x → almost never takes this line
- bluffs → fold
- value → snap

So we’re just isolating ourselves vs better hands.

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Big picture:

I think this is one of those classic live spots where:
> theory says “defend enough”
> reality says “population is so underbluffed that overfolding is higher EV”

So even though folding trips feels gross, I actually think 97 is just a fold here vs this profile.

Curious if others have seen people bluff this line at any meaningful frequency live.. my experience has been basically never.

There's no theory logic here.

In theory HJ doesn't open limp, CO doesn't over-limp, and we're not opening 97s over two limps. So...let's just focus on reality, not the divergence from something that doesn't exist.

Ehhhh....it's a spot where observant and aware players will see that CO's line looks FOS and hero looks pretty capped when we flat call the turn donk of 30% pot after c-betting half-pot on a dynamic board texture.

I think your estimate of zero bluffs is off. By a lot. Like, a whole lot. This action is going to induce a TON of raises with bluffs and thin value seeking protection. Your hand is SUPER under-repped here.

Bruh, you just repeated back the exact same range I gave you:

BRO WE BEAT 87s!!!!!

Wider, as in a lot of hands that are worse? I completely agree. V also has 87s, 75s, and maybe also 73s and 72s for the LULz. How many more better 7x combos does he have? K7s all the way down to T7s? Okay, does he also have 87o, and 75o, if he's that wide?

How sure are you, really, that his range is just better value?

A lot? Which ones? He's NEVER donking flop, x/r'ing flop, or donking turn, with any of them, in a multi-way pot, when the board has umpteen million ways it can get worse for his hand?

Yeah, if I had a hand better than 97s, and I somehow stumbled my way to this point in the hand history, I would sure as $hlt raise for value when CO donks 30% pot and BTN flat calls. I would also sure as $hlt raise all my value hands worse than 97s, because for crying out loud, he only bet 30% pot, and you only called!!!!

It isn't? Since when? Why not?

What is reliable? Giving them a nutted range that would almost never play this way, and not giving them any worse hands that totally would?

I wasn't assuming anything. They're called population tendencies for a reason. These are things the population tends to do.

In practice, a lot of recs are just clicking buttons, and the more you under-rep your hand, the more buttons they click.

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Why? You called a 30% pot donk, and he x/r'd less than 3x. There has to be some bluff frequency here. And he doesn't have to be bluffing for us to be ahead. He could have worse!!!

DUDE!!! THOSE AREN'T BLUFFS! THEY'RE STRAIGHTS!!!

Can you not count five cards in a row?

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Pot odds aren't the full story.

The full story is that if we just call, none of his worse hands or bricked draws are putting in another cent on the river, but we can get another $200 out of him now by jamming, because none of those hands should fold, with the pot odds we'll be giving him.

If you don't want to be forced to call off on the river, jam now. I want to jam now because I'm a greedy bastard that wants that other $200 he's still sitting on like a goddam chicken waiting for an egg to hatch.

But if you want to jam because you're afraid to be faced with a difficult river decision, you do you, bro.

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You misspelled "extremely well-calculated risk, when our hand is super-under-repped and his line is semi-FOS."

Everything.

Always takes this line.

None of the bluffs that actually make a lick of sense fold, if he has even the faintest comprehension of pot odds. If he has an air-ball, we weren't getting any more money out of him on the river if we flat call anyway, so we lose no value by jamming.

Including his worse value.

You misspelled "taking advantage of our opponents' spaz after completely botching how we played our hand to this point."

Clear picture:

You're spouting nonsense dressed up in poker-speak.

I think we’re just disagreeing on how often this node is actually bluff-heavy in live pools.

The whole argument for continuing/jamming seems to rely on:
- villain attacking a perceived capped range
- turning worse 7x into raises
- having meaningful bluff frequency here

In my experience, especially vs passive recs in multiway pots, that just doesn’t happen very often.

I agree that in theory, under-repped hands can induce aggression. But in practice, most players at these stakes aren’t thinking in terms of range vs range, they’re reacting to their own hand strength.

So the key question for me isn’t “can he have worse?” but:
→ does he take this specific line with worse at any meaningful frequency?

And I just haven’t seen enough evidence of that in similar spots live.

If someone has examples of passive recs bluffing turn check-raises multiway with any regularity, I’d actually be really interested to see that.

It's hard to find someone willing to admit they played a hand as badly as you played this one, which would be the prerequisite for our opponent to be induced into betting worse for value or bluffing.

Anyone who plays a hand this badly probably over-folds here, reducing the sample size of opponents getting caught raising worse to zero. You can't catch them betting worse when you fold everything better, except the nuts.

Sounds like you folded, and want people to say you played it right. I won't say that.

You didn't play it right. You $hlt the bed, and this thread is just an attempt to rationalize your incontinence, rather than addressing it.

I wouldn't cbet this flop. Cbet ace and king high flops you missed.

You may be ahead on the turn, but I would fold with a bet and raise. You are way behind pretty much any trips and obviously boats and straights. No one is raising two pair on the paired board, but you can hope he has a combo draw.

You are only representing an overpair. However, when the board pairs, AA beats any other 2 pair.

What makes this very difficult to me is not that villain might have a seven with a better kicker.

With the type of villain you describe with 66 or 44 - who was terrified of the straight draw is now coming at you with a boat.

On the other hand, villain used this check-raise as kinda a squeeze play, but that would take some savvy. So, if he’s not playing a draw, then what value does he have?

What I almost certainly would have done is raise the turn, does villain still pop it IDK? When you say he stays out of your way, you should have given him the chance. I truly think this was a big mistake as your decisions would be more clear.

Poker is definitely about making good decisions, but it’s more about making the other player face decisions.

Villain could easily do this with 87, a kicker that you beat, or have a straight worrying that you’ll boat up. Some recs could be overplaying A6 or A4 thinking you missed (the difficulty of playing the unschooled)

Can’t advise you here as this is where the ‘feel player’ part of me comes in. I think calling is very bad, but both folding and shoving are possibilities. I don’t tank much, but I would here, trying to catch a ‘comfort level’ clue.

I'm not folding OTT.
I'd get into more details now, but my chinese food just got here.

The problem with posting before your chinese food gets there is you'll just want to post again in an hour.

Sober doc has entered the chat.

Let's do this again...

Can we fold trips on the turn?

No. Not with this action, and the price we're getting.

His line of x/c flop, x/r turn would seem strong, very strong, if you raised the 30% pot donk from the CO, and then he 3B. In that scenario, we could consider folding.

When we flat the $60, and he only makes it $160, that's less than 3x, and it's exactly 1/2 pot. I don't think I can credit him for having a strong but vulnerable hand here, like better trips.

A lot of recs will slow play boats here, hoping one of their two opponents will make a flush or straight on the river. It's possible he's clicking it up to target CO, because he thinks CO's donk looks strong. But that doesn't make a ton of sense. If CO was strong, he'd donk more than 30%. You and the CO both look weak, opening the door for V to raise with both his bluffs and thin value.

It's not hard to find bluffs. He could take this line with 98ss, 65ss, 54, A6ss, A5ss, A3ss, A8ss, 86ss, 96ss, T8ss, and maybe a lot more combos.

You said you're only worried about him having A7s for better trips. That's one combo. He could also have 87s, and he might be in here with 87o, which is three more combos. He could also have 75s, and maybe he's as wide as 75o.

The most likely combos we lose to would be A7s, 76s, 66, and 44. That's 8 combos. He also likely has two combos total of 87s and 75s. If we just stop there, he's got 4 better value to 1 worse value, but we're being laid 4.2:1 on a call, so it absolutely is not a fold, ever. If we start giving him a wider range, it's probably even less of a fold.

The problem with calling is that 75 is open ended, with 11 outs to improve, and 87 is a gut shot with 7 outs to improve. Those hands aren't likely to fold if we jam for $200 more, but they may not put more money in on the river if we call and they don't improve, or the river brings in a flush, or an over-card, which is pretty likely.

Don't forget, we're the PFR. We have all the over-pairs in our range here. Literally any card above a 7 could give us a boat. Every other card completes a flush, a straight, or pairs the board. We could already be boated up here. Even if V has 87 and the river is an 8, we could have 88. There are no truly safe river cards for him.

Aside from getting the correct odds to call even when we're behind, he also has at least half a dozen, if not a dozen intuitive bluffs in his range, in addition to his worse value.

Even if we give him every combo of better trips with a suited combo, he only has 5 more combos that beat us. If we give him A7o, that's another 4. If he's that wide, he could have 87o, 65o, 75o, 54o, 98o, etc. He could also have one of the other three combos of 97s.

His range has a $hlt-ton of worse hands here, and a lot of them would play this way, given the action he's seen. Yes, he can also have some better hands, but he probably wouldn't play all of them this way.

There's three to a straight and two to a flush on board. His hands that are better than ours but vulnerable to being out-drawn may have raised pre, or may have come out and donked turn, or put in a bigger check raise. His flopped sets and two-pair combos might raise pre, or donk flop, or x/r flop, or donk turn, but may not x/r turn. Some of his better combos might fold to our raise pre, when he'll be OOP and first to act post.

I just don't think his range is entirely better hands. Not even close. I think it's slivers of better value, all the worse value, and a large number of semi-bluffs.

Folding is out of the question. If we understand his range and pot odds, we should jam turn, to make sure we get that remaining $200 into the pot now. His bluffs and worse value may not put any more money in on a river brick or scare card. But all his bluffs and worse value should have a hard time folding to our jam, when he'd be getting almost 4:1.

If he has a better hand, so be it. It's just a cooler. Next time don't open 97s over two limps, c-bet smaller on the flop, and raise when someone donks turn for 30% pot.

I'm fine with pre and with betting the flop. Turn is a little gross vs. a passive player. His line is incredibly strong. We beat 87 and lose to A7 and 67, plus the obvious sets, which are his most likely limped hands that do this.

Not sure I can fold, but vs. a truly passive player who doesn't get out of line and check/raises with another limper who bet the turn behind, it's probably a good idea.

I think it is quite reasonable to fold turn versus described passive V.

V has called the flop next-to-act and raised the turn closing the action. This is an incredibly strong and underbluffed line, even ignoring the passive read. I think you are being way too tight in estimating the average low-stakes V value range here too - he probably has A7o, K7o, Q7s, maybe all the 76s+, plus straights and boats. If fish err here, it's by having a more merged rather than polar range when showing aggression, and you beat almost none of that.

I think it would be a closer decision with a hand like A7 to catch V overplaying worse trips.

It's a sigh fold. Turn check raise into two people here is never less than trips from a typical low stakes passive.

Wether I find the fold live in real time is a different matter.

The tiny, "Please call me!", raise sizing makes it annoying, and for me, narrows V's range to exactly 76s at this level. I'd feel better about calling a shove, tbh, which H would need about 31-32% to call.

It's just so often stupid fat value here with this exact line. Yet incredibly tilting when they gleefully show you garbage after you "make the exploitative fold." Such a cheap bluff! Aargh.

I don't hate the open, fwiw. And while it might be a range check, with a vulnerable TP, sure, bet it up.

Pot odds exist. There's $420 in the pot, and we only have to call $100 and we're in position on the river.

Folding here is horrible. Say V only has boats. 76, 66, and 44. We have 15% equity against that range. We're going to get the last $200 in 100% of the time if we bink because the 9 isn't threatening at all. So 85% of the time we lose $100. 15% of the time we win $620. It's one of those situations where yes, we're going to lose a ton, but the math dictates we call because we're only risking $100 to win a pot that is $620.

If we truly believe that V is only betting the nuts, calling turn with the intention to fold river > folding turn. And I don't think it's unlikely that sometimes you're against non-boated hands like 75, 85, A5ss, 87. And when you start adding those in, it really doesn't take much to have the right immediate odds to call and the implied odds are in your favor if we believe V is only jamming boats on the river.

Interesting.. I had not considered a strategy of calling solely to boat up. I think it's a bit more marginal than you're suggesting though.

Hero is facing a $100 raise into a $380 pot (20.8%), with an additional $200 back (14.7% if we are clairvoyant on the river).

The chop odds here are actually somewhat significant if V's range is a lot of better trips, as double pairing the board will chop with any 7x. Conversely, V is rather likely to block the case 7, so we only have 3 likely outs to win (6.5%). The more hands V has without a 7 the better we're doing, and straights are actually great because the double-pair is a win for Hero.

I find any raw equity analysis here a little tricky because we will underrealize versus 87 if the plan is to fold river on a blank. And if that's not the plan, we have terrible RIO to continue. Maybe we pick up a little bit if a fourth spade lets us check it back.

Regardless, raw equity does indeed have us running somewhere around the 15% range... and if we're 15% to win $580, that's about $2 of EV. Maybe this does favor peeling one more street especially because of the "wtf" factor where low-stakes players can go completely crazy sometimes, but it's pretty close. "Can't fold because we have a boat draw" is such a limit mindset, lol.

Once again, I will readily admit I'm an over-thinking, stationy-whale if V has us crushed.

That said - I can't believe how nitty this forum is.

Yes, a check-call flop, x/r turn over a bet and a call SOUNDS nutted, but look at the actual action and dollar amounts, and do some reasonable range-reading.

I'm not trying to throw shade at OP, but has anyone else seen his other threads? He over-folds facing any aggression. He's MUBSy. And I don't believe he's the most reliable narrator. When he says V is a "passive rec", I wonder if that's foreshadowing a future fold, because "V is never bluffing".

Maybe V is just a semi-aware, semi-decent rec, who'll pounce when he smells weakness, but otherwise just waits for good cards before taking aggressive action, and therefore he looks "passive" to OP.

If we can reasonably discount the reliability of OP's read on V, maybe we can pause long enough to put ourselves in V's position, and look at the action.

PRE - OP opens over two late position limps, but not for a very large size, allowing them to continue wide. Both call.

FLOP - OP c-bets using a 1/2 pot size that looks like a standard range-bet, on a board that probably doesn't favor the PFR's range more than his opponents'.

TURN - CO donks 30% pot on when top card pairs and it also adds a BDFD, and the PFR flat calls.

What would that look like to you, if you were HJ? Wouldn't you think OP would raise if his hand was strong yet vulnerable? Wouldn't you wonder if OP would just flat with his invulnerable hands, or if he'd only flat with his weaker hands, the ones that couldn't beat much, like his draws? Wouldn't you think OP would at least CONSIDER clicking this back with his strong hands, to build the pot?

CO's 30% pot donk looks FOS. OP's flat call looks weak AF. Am I the only one who would be sorely tempted to check-raise here, as HJ, with almost anything and everything in my range?

I mean...just look at the reactions here. V raised to HALF POT! CO insta-mucked (apparently he was FOS), and OP is considering folding trips! On a two-flush board! Many of you agree!

He's raising $100 over CO's $60 bet. He's risking $100 to win $380 ($200 from flop + $60 from CO + $60 from OP + the $60 he'd have to call if he wants to continue). We only need to fold better hands a smidge more than 20% of the time for this raise to be break even.

And apparently, most people here are folding WAY more than 20% of the time, despite getting better-than-the-correct odds to continue. Just based on pure math alone, if we fold here, we're WAY over-folding. It's a MASSIVE blunder, without a SUPER reliable read that V can't ever do this with a worse hand, and only / always has better.

If he's a "passive rec", why is he raising here? Because he has a hand that beats ours? Every hand that beats ours had us beat on the flop. Why didn't he raise then?

I'm not buying "this is how recs play; they x/c flop and spring the trap on the turn". They also frequently just x/r the flop, or donk flop, or donk turn. They're recs. They click buttons. When CO donks $60 into $200 and we just flat, they don't need to look too hard to find the "raise" button with their entire range.

Results:

I called turn.

River 5x

He jams. I fold.

He shows 44.