I need to make sure I played this top set on a dry board correctly...
$5/5/$10 NL ($10 mandatory straddle in first position)
H - MAG, tight image, known reg, probably the tightest at this table over the past 3.5 hrs, but I've been hella card dead. With the very few hands I have played - I've played aggressively.
V - Quiet 30's Asian male, solid thinking reg, not super tight, but aggressive and I have not seen him make big mistakes
I open CO to $35 with Qs Qc (stack 1445)
Super loose fish on B calls (3000)
Meh reg in SB calls (800)
V in BB calls (1200)
Quiet, solid player in $10 straddle calls (2000)
5 ways to the flop
($175) Qd 5h 2s
X. X. X.
H $50 (dry board, multiway)
Everyone folds except for V who calls from the BB position.
($275) 8c
X.
H??? (board is still dry, targetting middle pocket pairs?)
I'll post updates on this hand more quickly.
Was the flop size ok? The fish to my left was such a bad player I thought a sec about checking to him on the B, but he snap folded when I bet so I am glad I did not check.
What should my turn size be?
19 Replies
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine. I'm guessing you could size up slightly in this lineup.
Again, we have a solid reg flatting in a spot where I'd expect a good player to raise or fold. What's that mean for his range? I'd think it's pretty collapsed.
FLOP - c-bet seems fine. Not sure we want to go any bigger. Maybe a smidge more if BTN is loose and fishy. Like $60. Your sizing seems fine, though, when we have the board on lockdown.
The BB call is really interesting. What the hell could he have here? Maybe we got super lucky and he's slow playing a lower set, hoping to bring in the straddle. Maybe he's got the case Q.
Maybe he's got some PP's from 66 to whatever his cutoff is for 3B'ing pre, and he's not ready to fold a pair yet, when we bet so small. Hard to see what else wants to flat call.
TURN - hmmmm... I'm kind of torn about what to do. We could bet big to target 55/22, or maybe occasionally 88. I'm not sure weak Qx is going to continue to a large bet, so we'd just be targeting AQ/KQ that didn't 3B pre.
My gut says we could bet small, to induce a raise from 55/22/88, and still drag all his Qx to the river as a flat call. I might bet around $125, at most. Might even make it $100, just to make sure we open the door wide enough.
Hope he raises. If not, and he checks again on the river, I'd bet 1.5x-2x pot, targeting Qx looking to catch us bluffing with AK.
Next street:
Spoiler
I bet $125 on the turn. V calls.
River: Kd.
V checks.
$525 in the pot.
How much do I bet?
I like what you’ve done so far.
I would have bet a little smaller on the turn, but you got called. Here on the river, a thinking player will likely not call a jam.
A 3rd barrel looks very strong
You paint this guy as aggressive, but I haven’t seen that this hand. Maybe you bet tiny and try to trigger his aggression.
Or just bet whatever you think he’ll call
King could be a scare card to him
In these situations, I would rather go small and get called, then try to get a little more value and fold him.
We're kind of assuming V has a range that's almost entirely hands that beat AK, before the river.
Maybe 125 again and see if he decides to turn things into a bluff? Also some possible slow plays from 55/22.
Maybe can go to 225?
I guess if I was bluffing 76 I'd probably go around 225, so "balance".
I would bet flop smaller or check.
If you're a good player, other good 5/T players should be surprised when you don't bet this turn B120+.
In that case, stacks should be set up well to jam river on one of the rare true "blank flop - blank turn - blank river" runout that usually only exists in training videos to (over-)emphasize the viability of b / OB / jam lines.
This runout is overfolded though, so if you're grading your bet sizing on a PASS / FAIL basis where having them fold at any point returns FAIL, then this line will largely receive negative reinforcement--particularly if you're not someone who exerts maximum pressure in general.
Also, it's a fine hand to check back turn too, but very few people in practice do the B300 or x/r type stuff OTR that makes this line appealing in theory.
Does B120 mean bet $120? Or does it mean bet 120 big blinds, or 120 straddles?
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I agree with the turn over bet. We need to just go for it against KQ.
Next street:
Spoiler
I bet $125 on the turn. V calls.
River: Kd.
V checks.
$525 in the pot.
How much do I bet?
Ugh. Hard for V to bluff catch with worse than KQ.
I mean... there aren't many 1P hands in his range now, other than AQ or worse QX. If we think he has KQ and lower sets in range, we can target those with an over-bet.
Alternatively, if we think he can find a ridiculous hero fold if we over-bet, we can size down to like $350.
I would bet flop smaller or check.
If you're a good player, other good 5/T players should be surprised when you don't bet this turn B120+.
Pretty much this, with the caveat that overbets are extremely rare in most live settings, in my limited experience at least.
So the question is how your V would interpret a turn over bet, and if and how to adjust, in case.
Top set is a great hand to win a smallish pot. It is extremely hard for anyone to have anything that beats TP, so you're going to see a lot of folds before the river. Therefore, it is hard to win a lot of money with it.
The villain has called twice. Harrington went through the math of betting small vs. big in this situation. To make betting small work, the villain's range has to be mostly hands that will call a small bet but will fold to a big bet. Two pair or better will call a big bet. One pair will fold all but the smallest bet. Make a big bet.
Does B120 mean bet $120? Or does it mean bet 120 big blinds, or 120 straddles?
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Reading the rest of the thread...
If the board made it possible for someone to have flopped a draw or any reasonable 2P combo, I'd be more likely to over-bet turn when V doesn't x/r our small flop c-bet. I'd over-bet with all my TPTK, TP2K, all my over-pairs, and all my bluffs.
As played, when we have top set, V just flat calls flop, and then we get the offsuit 8 turn, there wouldn't seem to be many strong hands in V's range. Unless we got extremely lucky and he has 88 or the case Q with a decent kicker, I think an over-bet just gets a range fold, and we should instead size down to drag as much of his range as possible to the river.
Otherwise, if we thought V was stationy or we had a maniacal image, I could see over-betting. But if we're viewed as tight and he's not likely to make mistakes, we're probably just ending the hand on the turn if we over-bet.
We gave V two chances to raise with his lower sets. I'd think his range getting to the river is weighted towards Qx, some middling 1P hands that only continued because we gave him a price, and occasionally some seriously slow played sets.
The K on the river makes things interesting. He could have some KQ. We could have some AA, AK, KQ, or KK.
When we bet small on flop and turn, I'd think his slow played sets might come out and donk river if it was just a total brick. But when we might have improved to top set, top 2P, or TPTK, it seems like a spot where his lower sets and top 2P wouldn't want to donk as much, and now he's either looking to bluff catch or maybe x/r.
This is where our reads come into play. If he was very aggro, I'd be more likely to bet small to give him one more chance to raise. If he was a fishy station, I'd over-bet slightly, hoping he can't lay down QX.
If he's a reg who doesn't make big mistakes, I'm not expecting him to x/r as much, even with KQ+, nor call an over-bet with just 1P. I think we should try to target his KQ and slow played sets with a medium sized bet, around 2/3 pot. If we think he's capable of finding ridiculous hero folds or hero calls, I might size up or down based on which way he tends to hero.
He's probably just folding everything worse than KQ here, no matter how much we bet. I'd just try to make it look like we have a range that's entirely AA/AK/KQ/bluffs and hope he calls a 2/3 pot bet.
Spoiler
After I bet $125 on the turn and V calls, the pot is $525.
River: Kd.
V checks.
It is hard to imagine he has slow played sets all this way. He might have a Qx which could be scared off by this river. If he has KQ and checks the river, I expect him to check raise if I don't bet big. I think alot of his remaining range is medium pocket pairs that might look to bluff catch but are not going to call a big bet with the K hitting the river. I have $60 left in $5 chips, and the rest of my stack is $100's. I bet $260, fiiguring that is small enough to get raised by KQ and anything better.
V calls, and after seeing my hand, shows 55.
wtf?
I may get flamed for this, but whatever...
I think V actually played it correctly. The flop is so dry and static that there's not much incentive for him to x/r. If he x/r's with 55/22, he's just letting us off the hook when we miss or have 1P, and value-owning himself when we have QQ.
If it doesn't make sense to x/r flop, it doesn't make sense to x/r turn, for the same reasons. Nothing's changed. If he's not x/r'ing flop or turn, he's not x/r'ing river, even if we bet somewhat small, because if we did that, it looks like we're either trying to induce him to raise, or planning to bet-fold.
Think about it - if his reasoning for x/c'ing flop and turn and checking again is that his hand loses when we have QQ or KK, there's no upside in him x/r'ing the river, even if we bet small. He can't get called by worse, because he has no bluffs.
When he check-calls flop and turn, and then checks river again, his range that can call a bet of any size is basically slow-played sets and KQ that ran into top 2P. He can't call with any of his 1P hands, so we should be sizing up to target his KQ and sets.
If V is capable of folding sets or top 2P to an over-bet, then we should be over-betting with our bluffs and 1P hands, and sizing down to a size he'll call with our thick value. When V doesn't x/r flop or turn and checks again on the river, I'd think he's capable of getting away from every hand we beat if we over-bet, and so I'd size down to 2/3 pot, to make it harder for him to fold. That's a size we could take with AA, AK, and KQ, and look like we might still fold to a raise.
