AA opens utg and it goes 5 ways to the flop...

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Today on the site, you'll find one of the greatest fixes ever – the kind you could bet your house on. I can't share sensitive details here, which is why the site is password-protected. The temporary password to log in to the premium zone is: Langeo

"Beyond the statistics and trends, there is a darker, more complex factor that must be acknowledged. Information circulating in the betting underworld of Cleveland suggests this game may be viewed as an "opportunity" by certain parties.

According to a source—a former employee of a legal Cleveland casino who maintains contacts with investment groups interested in "alternative sports betting markets"—a significant amount of "smart money" has been placed on the Over 158.5 for this specific matchup. This source claims that a group with deep ties to Northern Ohio placed well over a million dollars on the Over, broken down into hundreds of smaller bets across legal sportsbooks in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan to avoid detection.

The source's information is fragmentary, pieced together from conversations within this milieu, but points to a few key observations:

The Trigger: The real interest from this group began immediately after UMass's stunning upset of Miami (OH) . Until that moment, UMass was not on their radar. But that win opened up the bracket and created a perceived "opportunity" for the quarterfinal matchup with Toledo. The bets were placed quickly, reacting to the new landscape.

The Focus: Leroy Blyden Jr. According to the source, whispers in betting circles ..."

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Just dropped an analysis for today's NHL matchup.

The other reason for opening larger in ep is in live play ep raises tend to get more callers and late position raises are more likely to wind up HU or taking the blinds. People aren't adjusting their ranges enough for the action.

if the SB jams, maybe not. the check/re-raise would seem pretty nutted. Might still go with it though. Maybe a gameflow-based decision I'd make in teh moment.

If the CO jams...

I'd raise to 350 or 400 to set up a turn jam. If that got raised, Id have to call 775 to win 2590. I need 29%. I have exactly that against sets and big combo draws. If he has even one WTF combo like a slow played KK, or just the NFD then it's a call.

I admit it's not a super great spot. But that's what we get when we play this hand like a scared baby

Actually, we have a little more equity than 2 outs, because the board can pair and counterfeit any 2P combos.

Against 2P, we're around a 3:1 dog, which isn't fantastic, but is a lot better than drawing to 2 outs. If we're up against a set, we're in pretty rough shape.

Nice hand.

In this configuration, when the SB stares at us before he acts, I wouldn't necessarily take that as a sign of strength. He could just be trying to see if we look interested or uninterested before proceeding, likely indicating he's holding a medium strength hand.

If he had a strong hand, he wouldn't want to do anything to dissuade us from continuing. If he was behind us, and staring at us before we act, or he acted surprised we called or raised, I'd be more concerned he had us crushed.

Played a weird hand recently where something similar happened. Opened 87s from EP. Stationy guy to my direct left called. SB and BB call.

Flop comes 884rb. SB donk jams for a little less than pot. Semi-nit BB thinks a few secs and flats. I put in a 3x raise, and V to my left instantly does a double-take to stare at me, then flat calls.

As soon as he did it, I knew I was beat. Action is back on BB, who puts in a back-raise. I fold, knowing BB has a boat.

A stupidly-large amount of money goes in on the turn and river. Sure enough, BB has 44, station to my left has Q8o, and the SB rivered a better boat to get the full quadruple up with 55.

Yeah, I read his pause as him having a medium strength hand. But I do think I should have at least mentally paused myself to consider that he could have a set.

As for the hand you played - nice fold!

It was kinda funny. A friend was playing at the table next to us. He had just walked over to see how I was doing, so I got to show him my hand before folding. We walked away from the table to discuss, and he instantly said it was obvious I was beat, but still a good fold (I guess for a low stakes game, but he may have meant for me, since he's witnessed me spew).

I couldn't believe the station had Q8o. The pot was $60 going to the flop. BB jam was $45. My raise was $150, and the BB's back raise was $400. They were both super deep, like over $2k, and I think closer to $3k. In a goddam 1/3 game.

I forget how much money went in on the turn and river, but I want to say it was $600 on a turn K that brought in a BDFD, and $800 on river 5 that completed the flush.

It was shocking to me how sticky the dude on my left was. I knew it from the first hand we played, in which he called my chunky river bet with 2nd or 3rd pair on an insanely connected board where every conceivable draw got there. I immediately labeled him as completely unbluffable.

Your guy...a couple weird things happening here. He's supposedly a good player but he's flatting from the SB in a 3-blind game. I'd think that would really collapse his range. I also wonder if he had some read on you or the BB and straddle, or if he's just getting in there because CO is in there. I think he could have a fairly wide yet fairly weak range pre.

It's possible he's got 33/22, and maybe JJ, but that would be a bit more surprising. I'd think he has way more Jx or a draw when he doesn't x/r on such a wet board. If I caught him staring at me, I'd think he was trying to calculate odds in his head, considering the possibility we might raise. He could be asking himself if his hand is good enough to go with if we raise and CO jams.

That's why I like your jam. CO is tilted, so he could be potting it with ATC when action checks him, and we could be on a draw, hoping to fold out the SB with our jam. I'd think it would be hard for SB to fold AJ/KJ, and he might not fold QJ/JT.

As played got a perfect result with the runout. However, you gii a 3-1 underdog.

When you make it 500, you are pot committing yourself. What are you hoping for? Is the fish making a psb donk bet with AJ/QQ/TT/99 and calling off? I wouldn't think the fish would have 2 pair on this board, but with the psb and call, there is a good chance one of them has a set.

I have no idea what the reg had. If he had a strong flush draw with high cards or an ace and a pair, he should at least think about gii 3-ways.

I still think flat call flop would be better. You could fold flop, but raising seems like a mistake.

We hope to get called.

Obviously

Board: 3sJc2c
Equity Win Tie
MP3 69.80% 69.71% 0.09% { AdAc }
SB 30.20% 30.11% 0.09% { JJ, 33-22, KJs, QJs, 54s, 32s, KsQs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 4s3s }

Not sure if I should respond to you, but it looks like you entered the wrong cards for the board. There were 2 spades on the flop, not two clubs and you are entering spade flush draws, so naturally they will do poorly on the incorrectly entered flop.

You are also assuming all sorts of weak draws and weak top pair potting the flop or calling a psb and stacking off. You are somewhat ahead of most strong draws, but you have to assume someone has a strong made hand or a strong draw. The fish is probably calling really wide preflop, but the pro is not, so most of those hands are not in his range.

yeah. woops. here's the corrected version

Board: Js2s3c
Equity Win Tie
MP3 52.74% 52.68% 0.06% { AdAc }
SB 47.26% 47.20% 0.06% { JJ, 33-22, KJs, QJs, 54s, 32s, KsQs, AsTs, KsTs, QsTs, As9s, Ks9s, Qs9s, Ts9s, As8s, Ks8s, Qs8s, Ts8s, 9s8s, As7s, 9s7s, 8s7s, As6s, 9s6s, 8s6s, 7s6s, As5s, 7s5s, 6s5s, As4s, 4s3s }

yeah, I botched the calculations a bit. Go back to post #9 for detailed ranges. I gave one V a strong betting range and the other a reasonable calling range. We're 50% in that 3-way picture. I tried copying ranges from that post and I ended up missing some hands. Nevertheless, replace the weak top-pairs above with strong top-pairs. Take some draws out if you want. None of it changes the equity all that much.

As played, we put in 1175 to win 2590, we need 45%. We have it against a range of sets, all the strongest draws, and AJ. If he ever has KJ, QJ, or 54off, then we're into +EV. Also the presence of the second villain only makes it more likely we get called by draws, so our advantage widens.

Board: Js3s2c
Equity Win Tie
MP3 44.68% 44.36% 0.32% { AdAc }
CO 55.32% 55.00% 0.32% { JJ, 33-22, AJs, KsQs, As5s, As4s, As2s, AJo }

There is a psb and a call and then a pot committing x/r. We have to look at what hands will do that. You can look at ranges in software, and sure it is hard to make a set, so there are not that many combinations of that. However, the sizing and the call of that sizing weight towards stronger hands. When you x/r, you get action from an even narrower range. Checkraising after a psb and call is way overplaying your hand.

Not saying flat call is better than folding. However, if you flat call, you have position. You can find out if you get action from the pro or the fish. If the fish checks and the pro bets fairly big, it is an easy fold. It is also usually an easy fold if the flush hits. You have 2 outs to close to the nuts and you should be able to get a lot more in if you hit.