QQ’s in a huge pot.
1/3 8 handed. Effective 400. I have 450
UTG….very loose…limps a lot..cold calls a lot…He is not price sensitive…He has ra
I think your preflop sizing is fine. AA is much less vulnerable than QQ (as it never sees an overcard), so we'd be cool with sizing slightly smaller (and ditto / in-between for KK)... however if you're going to get these geenyus's to call the larger sizing then might as well do that.
You really only have to be worried about a cascade of callers if it offers everyone decent IO / results in a terrible SPR for us. This is actually why I use a method that never raises preflop except for in LP, as an EP/MP single raise will often create this spot (which I think is horrible, but others will disagree). In this case we were able to get the 3bet in (which is what my LRR method is attempting to do), and at these ~non-deep stacks we can easily size to offer horrendous IO / setup a very small SPR, which is exactly what we did, so we're actually fine with the cascade of callers (although there are some counter-examples with huge dead money relative to meaningless stacks behind where we'd actually be cooler with folds). Sorta similar to open shoving preflop with AA and knowing our most +EV result is actually having everyone call (we won't win nearly as often, but we'll make more $$$$ overall). But the cascade of callers get trickier and trickier the better IO we offer / the bigger the SPR it creates.
Gwellplayedhand,imoG
I jammed the flop and the UTG tanked about 10 seconds and called. A couple players behind him looked disappointed and folded. The button called. I survived and won a monster pot. It sounds like I dodged a ton of outs. The button said he had a pair plus a flush and straight draw. UTG said he had a big draw too. I think I absolutely should have raised a little more pre especiall
If they're calling $70, they are calling $90. Players that do this aren't doing math, they like their hand, and they think it's pretty, and they'll call almost anything. What hand "should" a player on the button not squeeze with, but then should flat for $70? None. Absolutely none. What about the HJ? None. Absolutely none. They aren't playing poker, they are playing bingo. The one thing you can be quite confident of is they don't have AA/KK so your bingo card is better than everyone else's.
There is no reason to go larger. If an A or K hits the flop, you're folding and you want less in the pot. The flop was good and the donkeys were willing to stick it in light even though its blindingly obvious to anyone who can play poker that you have an overpair. So going larger would just make you lose more when you miss, and you aren't getting much more when you hold. 3x original raise + dead money is a good rule of thumb. I'd probably have gone $75, but it really doesn't matter.
Feel free to stop by our site:
v i c t o r y p i c k s . e u
Today on the site, you'll find one of the greatest fixes ever – the kind you could bet your house on. I can't share sensitive details here, which is why the site is password-protected. The temporary password to log in to the premium zone is: Langeo
"Beyond the statistics and trends, there is a darker, more complex factor that must be acknowledged. Information circulating in the betting underworld of Cleveland suggests this game may be viewed as an "opportunity" by certain parties.
According to a source—a former employee of a legal Cleveland casino who maintains contacts with investment groups interested in "alternative sports betting markets"—a significant amount of "smart money" has been placed on the Over 158.5 for this specific matchup. This source claims that a group with deep ties to Northern Ohio placed well over a million dollars on the Over, broken down into hundreds of smaller bets across legal sportsbooks in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan to avoid detection.
The source's information is fragmentary, pieced together from conversations within this milieu, but points to a few key observations:
The Trigger: The real interest from this group began immediately after UMass's stunning upset of Miami (OH) . Until that moment, UMass was not on their radar. But that win opened up the bracket and created a perceived "opportunity" for the quarterfinal matchup with Toledo. The bets were placed quickly, reacting to the new landscape.
The Focus: Leroy Blyden Jr. According to the source, whispers in betting circles ..."
More information after logging in.
Just dropped an analysis for today's NHL matchup.
I think c/shove is superior to shove given these stakes, players and actions.
Fish interpret 3-bets oop as absolute strength only, and believe you are supposed to "slowplay" sets+ and protect against flush draws like your life depends on it., because someone "always has them". They would NEVER check just "a high pair" this multi-way with "a flush draw out there" so they also think that means you will not. They had you on a range of High Pairs and 'AK', but a check now green lights them to "Put you on Ace King" There is a high probability any of these people will jam 77+,44 6x but will fold these hands if you open shove which would confirm that you do in fact have Aces. There are also people that play hands as good as Tens and Jacks as a limp call because they think these hands are too good too fold but they internally hate putting a lot of money in preflop with them. The type of fish who plays like this with hands like that seriously may just fold them and internally pat themselves on the back for doing so.
The tldr version is just people who c/c 12,70 passive PF like this are playing to "see what happens" on their bingo card. You have to give them the story they want to see.
I jammed the flop and the UTG tanked about 10 seconds and called. A couple players behind him looked disappointed and folded. The button called. I survived and won a monster pot. It sounds like I dodged a ton of outs. The button said he had a pair plus a flush and straight draw. UTG said he had a big draw too. I think I absolutely should have raised a little more pre especiall
My usual formula for 3B sizing is 3x the open + 1x the open or every caller, when I'm in position. When I'm out of position, it's 4x + 1x.
I've always gone smaller or larger for exploitative reasons. If I think a table is splashy, I'll go larger. If I'm hoping to induce action, I'll go smaller.
Recently I've started experimenting with larger sizes without exploitative reasons. Like, where did I even get those formulas from? The internet, I think. But it's NO LIMIT. We can raise as much as we want.
If we go 4x + 1x here, we get 8x, or $96. But that's using a $12 open. It's 1/3. Is no one opening to $15 in this game? Why can't we make it $120 (8 x $15)?
When we know the UTG opener is a loose-passive with a limping range, who cold-calls (another sign he's a fish), why not 3B even bigger than that? Why not $130? When the other four are apparently oblivious to how strong a range UTG is probably opening, why not raise to $150?
It's 1/3. They came to the casino to gamble. Folding is boring. They've been waiting to pick up a playable hand. If they call $12, and over-call $70, are they folding if we make it $90-$100? What about if we make it $120-$150?
Would we rather try to win a little more from each of the four of them in a five-way pot, or would we rather try to get this heads up and stack UTG for $400? I'd bet he wasn't folding if we made it $120, but the rest of them would.
It's interesting UTG had a draw. Usually people with a limping range will have a strong hand when they open for a raise. His limping range must be super-trashy.
Anyway...once we get to the flop the way we do, I'd assume someone has 2P or a set or they have some sort of high equity draw. They may call a flop jam with their high equity draws, and we may or may not win a big pot when they do or do not make their hand.
My preferred line in this situation would be to bet small on the flop, to milk them for a little more value, then start piling it in on most turns if no one raises our flop bet.
You may have dodged a ton of outs, or it may have been that they were holding each other's outs. It happens.
I think that your preflop sizing is way too small. My default 3! from the blinds is 4x plus 1x per limper. This would be 84, but I would go bigger here, maybe 100-110. You described him as not being price sensitive. With such a premium hand and his open raising range being perhaps tighter than typical (he limps a lot), we should go bigger.
This is quite a spot OTF. We’re first to act in a super bloated 5 way pot with an SPR of about 1. Because he didn’t 4!, V probably doesn’t have KK+. If I understand correctly, we need to be good about half the time when called since we’re risking 330 to win 350. We’re actually better off than this since I’m assuming it’s only the Largest of the other 4 stacks that’s 400. With only 9 combos of sets available, tons of draws and a bunch of smaller over pairs, I think we should shove. I don’t like a check with the intent to CR OTF because I think it checks around too often. I actually think CF is better than CR since players in my pool are more likely to call with worse here than they are to bet with worse. If any money goes in OTT we are way more likely to be behind than we are now.
Shove the flop.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think we should shove. I don’t like a check with the intent to CR OTF because I think it checks around too often. I actually think CF is better than CR since players in my pool are more likely to call with worse here than they are to bet with worse. If any money goes in OTT we are way more likely to be behind than we are now.
Shove the flop.
I think what you're saying is true in general but is more true on later streets than earlier ones. It's a 100% truth on 5th street, but the flop is different. And this flop is special, its all low cards which creates a lot of overpairs and a board where top pair is obv going to change. After the preflop raiser checks and can be "put on ace king", you're turning a ton of holdings into the nuts in these peoples minds.
The reason they're more likely to call at the end then they are to bet with worse holdings is because they're upset about how much they've "invested". But this is just as much psychological than it is about the money. When they call $70 PF "trying to hit a set" they can accept folding if they missed. Also if say they have the nuts on the flop or turn they've already began counting the money and just cant let it go when they're unjustly outdrawn. So many of these things don't apply to flops.
You are way ahead but in a terrible spot. Check-fold is likely correct unless you find a really good price, but honestly, you should have jammed pre.
You want to jam $400 over a $12 raise with 3 calls?
This is a pretty good plan if our goal is to make our opponents play perfectly.
Gis33xthenew3Bstandard?G
