AA with a bad flop but rivers a set, how to get most value? Should I even be at the river?

Allin is like 30% pot, so obviously push. He shouldn't fold 2 pair.

Flop and turn are difficult. He could have a pair and draw or something.

River is very very very thin. I doubt he'll call with worse.

Tbh I might fold flop.
Might fold or jam turn.
River is a call and a call only.
If river wasn't an A, it's either shove or fold, shove as a bluff.

Dude, you post interesting hands.

Grunch:

PRE - is a 6BB open the norm here? I own the franchise on telling people to raise bigger pre, but I have to wonder how this size from UTG affects their calling ranges, and if they have many if any 3B's that aren't AA/KK.

FLOP - dafuq is this huge donk into four peeps?

I dunno. Does he over-call a 6x open with T8s pre from the SB? Big balls on him.

Even if he does, he has way more sets and 2P here, so, no, we don't/can't/won't fold flop. Not raising either.

TURN - hmmm... I'd think his sets would be barreling for a larger size, but maybe not if he's either worried about us having KK or he's just sizing for a less than PSB river jam. Still not folding or raising, but it's starting to feel like we're being taken to value town.

RIVER - you f**king luckbox! How do you do it?

If he's got T8, he's getting all my money. The run-out and his bet sizing makes it possible we get here with AK. His same-bet river sizing is likely to make him think he induced and he has to call the rest off if we jam. It looks like he's praying you just call with AK.

Just stick the rest in. Don't snap jam, but don't go overboard with the acting. Just shuffle your chips a couple seconds, then say the magic words.

River is an easy shove against this block sizing. I can’t imagine him taking this “same bet” sizing with a straight. This looks like 76s or some other crappy two pair hand.

Flop and turn are uncomfortable but I think you played it well.

You cannot be serious that the river is "very very thin" and "a call and a call only", right? We have the third nuts and beat two pair and sets. He might fold two pair to a shove, but he's very likely not folding sets. If he's same-betting a straight here, he's getting my money. The same bet is weird, I don't think he'd often do that with a straight, but with this river we're just gonna have to go broke if he does have T8 or 85.

Flop and turn are more interesting. Against many opponents I would probably just fold the flop, to be honest, but if I do call, I don't think I could fold the turn for this sizing. I'd still hate the spot I got myself into, though, with a likely (hefty) river bet ahead.

The reason I raise the flop is to find out villain’s strength. Probably just double the bet (200) because I think I want a call.

After poking the bear, his actions are more meaningful. If he continues to fire the turn now, you have to start thinking you may be beat.

If he checks turn (most likely) now you can feel more comfortable that you’re ahead.

I JUST REALLY HATE CALLING DOWN!
I know there’s a place for it, but it’s such a guessing game. I guess if you ever want to call down, this is it - and you likely win more than I would have (nice river), because v shoved it in. I would have probably made him fold.

As played, you called so far, I guess call again

When you lose a hand like this after rivering an ace, you can’t be mad for getting the money in. But it still deserves break from the action, a walk around or whatever helps you avoid tilt.

Interesting that your last three questions concern folding aces. I can tell you one thing; when you fold aces and they were good, it’s a pretty awful feeling.

Flop feels like a fold with two players behind us left to act both of whom can have all the sets and all the two pair hands. There are an awful lot of bad turn cards as well.

At least they both folded flop, but when the King hits and SB keeps swinging for two thirds pot it's probably close. I might fold again tbh but it's not as plain a fold as the flop.

River has to be a jam surely? The sets aren't folding when you can so easily have AK, and for the same reason two pairs might fold to a click back.

Welcome to Sea World.

Now you understand my frustrations with these people.

All seems fine for me, now we just have to jam river to get value vs worse sets and hands like 76s. If he defended SB with T8 suited, good for him.

Also worth noting that Kx of spades is available on the flop, although it seems unlikely he would bet it on the river. But it's live poker so he might be 'blocking' to avoid facing a bigger bet.

If the river was a red 2 or 3 and he made the same sizing, I would call. Especially since such a sizing on a blank could be very indicative of a hand like KT of spades or similar.

Well spotted, about the KXss combos. I wonder if the possibly still tilted 70 yo Asian man takes this line with AKs/KQs/Kjs, or even KTs, which is a combo-draw on the flop.

For that matter, he could have ATss, or even AQss/AJss, and is blocking the river now that he's made a decent top pair.

It kind of sucks if he has one of those combos, because I doubt he's calling our jam now. Here we are assuming he flopped 2P or a set, and that we sucked out, when he may have been semi-bluffing, and we actually had the best hand the whole way.

Nice catch, BigWhale.

Yo, OG - don't fold river on a brick! He could be semi-bluffing!

Going back to our ginormous 6BB open size, I now wonder if he may take this line with TT.

Doesn't want to 3B pre. Flops an OP + GSSD on a wet board. Donks huge for value / protection. Starts getting a little squeamish on the K turn. Hates the A river, but he's come this far and doesn't want to just give up but also can't make himself go all in to rep the straight.

OG - fold if he jams on an 8 or T river. He got there.

I dunno. I think the board saved us from possibly making a bad decision.

It's a $10 straddle game, so the open was 3x.

OP doesn't say what position you are in, but from action it has to be at least MP? Makes some difference.

Would fold flop without reads, and even then it's pretty thin I think. We unblock NFD, which is nice. But in general when people are overcalling in the SB and then donk betting huge on this kind of flop into multiple people I'll just let them have it for a bit.

Would probably call river, but I think it's probably close and I probably don't raise enough in these kinds of spots "because they always have it"™.

On the one side we would call a shove, and he might play sets this way on the river to get a call from AsQs or whatever.

On the other, if he has T8s in range on flop then turn/river sizes look a lot like they are pretending "I'm scared you have AA/KK now" where I'd think sets wouldn't actually be that scared esp. on the turn.
Dito. flop size makes the most sense with T8, where it really wants to get as much money in as possible on the flop and sets don't mind as much what the turn is.

If he has two pair then I think he'd be insane to call river. Hell, even 77/66 look like they can't be winning. Doesn't mean randoms who overcall SB and donk flop aren't calling though.

As8s/As6s/etc also make some sense for bet sizes, but I doubt they are calling and it's worth something knowing if those are his hands.

I was in first position, directly to the left of the utg $10 straddle.

I agree with you that two pair and low sets probably shouldn’t bet/call this river in theory, but we’re playing against a tilted fish here. Gotta make him try to find the fold here with two pair or a set. Put him in the spot and see if he can make the right play when he’s stuck multiple buy-ins and flopped a nutted hand.

Against a good reg (capable of bet/folding a “good” hand and capable of having the nuts in range after blocking), I think it would reasonable to just call river. But a good reg doesn’t take this line so we’d never actually be in that spot.

Yeh, reread near the end of my post and saw "first to act" but wasn't 100% sure that's what you meant.

V can certainly have more semi-bluff type hands at that point, so I can understand wanting to call flop more (and hope people behind fold) ... but at the same time if he knows enough to know he can bluff flop more he's likely to keep firing more as well, so we are less likely to see V slow down after we call flop ... so do we want to call down one pair on "bricks"?

Only thing I'd really change is I would lean more towards calling river and making him show, to see wtf he had ... but again not raising river enough in spots like this might be a leak of mine.

Bruh.... don't reply to these types of posts if you don't know what you're talking about 😂

River is an EASY, 100% frequency jam.

Flop and especially turn aren't comfy, equity difference between call and fold is prob super small. River is the easiest shove in the world.

Played fine so far. Just gii now. He might not call w/ worse, which would be sad.

Was thinking this mostly too and reread the OP twice to make sure I wasn't missing something. Flop and turn are the interesting decision points, I have no idea how anyone suggests anything but a shove vs this river size.

I'd be surprised if this was close tbh. If we're going to give villain combos like T8s, which I agree with, he also has all the other 2p and set combos. There's no way river isn't a jam and quite comfortably so.

Shove, get called by worse and offer him $50 to show. Made more money this way than calling.

Flop and turn are annoying but I don't fold either. River is a slam dunk high five your neighbor jam.

When the V donked out on the flop, I thought top pair with a straight draw, or other combo flush/straight draws were possibilities for his hand that I was still ahead of.
When he bet the turn relatively large, I thought he was saying "I can beat a pair of kings" (though I suppose a K high spade draw that turned top pairs was also a possibilty). I did not think he would lead the turn like that with a flush or straight draw that didn't beat kings. But I called anyway, thinking I was probably beat. Maybe you could make a case to to call with AA vs the villain's two pair if you factor in implied odds. However, with how the hand played out, the IO to call vs 2 pair were not realized.

I can see the fold. It looks like you have AA/KK/AK or some other aces up. You can't be expecting a fold, so it is hard for it to be a bluff with a busted flush draw or something.