Satellite spot – shove or fold with 99?

Indeed a nasty spot.

Like you said, If this was the actual bubble we should almost certainly fold and hope that HJ goes broke one way or another when they have to post almost their whole remaining stack in BB (and if they fold to someones shove they'll be allin in SB)

But now the odds of folding ourselves to a seat are quite bleak. For that to happen (most likely scenario):

- First LJ has to pass the blinds and fold, with a remaining stack of 10 K
- Then HJ as said above have to bust after calling someones allin in either of the blinds
- Then we'll have to post blinds again and fold 15 of our remaining 18 K
- Then LJ will be knocked out when they post their remaining 10 K and be allin against some player (probably CO)

I don't know how likely this is to happen. Or that we'll get an even better hand before or when we enter the blinds next orbit and hold up when we shove (or call)

How likely are things to play out in our favour here? 35-40 at best maybe? It's hard to imagine they're better than 50% at least. So if we compare that to our likely odds of winning if we shove (assuming he always he calls here due to pot odds):

If he opens 25% of hands in this spot we're 58 - 42 (about the same as when we're up against AK with a middle pair
If he opens 37% of hands the odds are 62 - 38
If he opens 50% of hands we're a 65 - 35 favourite.

If we win the price will be a 54 bb stack. That's great, but not a 100% probability of cashing. Say its 80% or something like that. So: perhaps around 60% to win the allin X 80% to win the seat if we do: 48%

Given I don't underestimate our chances of folding to the seat (or the slim chance or picking up a better hand than 99 one of the four hands before we'll be in BB next time) I would say it looks like ev+ to take the gamble and shove here. At worst it's ev neutral compared to taking "the fold route"

I discarded the player in BB. If they're not very bad they will fold every hand except maybe KK+ (which they probably also should fold here)

I’d fold but doubt it’s a significant icm error if you called as you’re so far ahead of V range

BB needs to post 12k leaving 18k (3bb) behind and will call and be at risk on a wide range of hands

Then you have an orbit where big hands can collide and HJ LJ will most likely be at risk before you

Don’t beat yourself up if you took this spot and busted but imo it's marginally better to fold

Thanks for your response, guys.
I agree that both shoving and folding are pretty close there. I wonder if it changes much if I had a weaker pocket (55-88) or Ax hand.
In any case I have shoved in that spot hoping to be 70% favourite. But the CO revealed AT and KQJ flop left me no chances 😀
The shortie with 15k busted the very next hand, BTW. It was ‚nice‘ to see people celebrating 😀
Will try another sat next week. Maybe have more luck this time.

I think it's a clear fold.

I would much rather open shove a far wider range/weaker hand than re-shove here in a spot where we have no fold equity given it's the huge chip leader. pairs below 88 and almost all Ax hands are also folds. Perhaps AK is a call but it honestly might not be

you're in the SB which means you have another orbit of hands to find a hand to shove as well as to see the shorter stacks get it in and maybe eliminate themselves

I think it’s a nasty spot too and not a clear anything. The fact that you are past your big blind is an important fact to me, especially if you are at the beginning of a new blind level and every stack is shallow. I like to preach “patience” in these spots but in game I probably shove 1/2 the time even though I really have no fold equity.

yeah, given stacks, perhaps it's not as clear as I thought - I missed the bb ante part. But still, if I'm reading it correctly, LJ, HJ and BB will all go bust before we do?

I think my calling range would be 1010+, even if the chip leader is opening/shoving as wide as GTO, which he's probably not given it's live

We are basically the 2nd shortest stack here because we have 9 hands to go before we are all in. If we fold we will make it to the SB again where we will be all in if we haven't played a hand to that point.

The HJ will be all in next time he hits the BB. So he will have to go all in within 4 hands.

The BB though is in exactly the same situation as us. If he doesn't play a hand (and folds this hand to the raise) he will be all in his next BB. But if we are all in together and everyone folds the BB would be able to take back half a blind and it would be a 50% spot for us to survive. And yes if we won the BB would be all in on his next hand as SB. But basically on that last hand where we are all in as SB and the BB is all in as well, most people with reasonable stacks would limp in the hopes of knocking one or both of us out. And my guess is that if we both lost the BB would win the seat because he would have had more chips than us that final hand.

The LJ can play through his blinds once without having to play a hand. So the LJ can wait for the HJ, us and the BB to play a hand.

I would be very tempted to jam here because of the T2s hand we saw the Chip Leader raise with and the fact that he is CO. And of course because we will have to win one of the next 9 hands or we will likely get knocked out. Even if BB chooses to call here and then folds they will have more chips than us when they are next BB. Especially if the rule at this place is that the BB goes out first and then the BB ante.

Eh…am I misreading?

We have 21k and will lose (6+6+3) 15k the next round of blinds so we can survive two orbits til our second bb and so have like 14 hands til we blind out?

HJ blinds out in about 5 hands
BB blinds out in 8 hands
LJ also blinds out before us

You are right (and I was wrong)

We can go through our blinds again with 3,000 chips left. We have 18,000 after the current hand is over assuming we fold 99.

So this is a tricky spot in that we could wait for the other 3 to play one hand each and if 2 don't win, we would make it past the bubble. It is possible that they wouldn't bounce out on a hand they played and lost (like in a SB vs BB limp situation) which means they could play 2 or more hands. But still they would have to win one of them to survive past us if we don't play a hand.

Many years ago I was on the bubble in a tournament at Bay 101. I don't remember how many tables there were, but I would say at least 5 still in play. There were like 7 people who had shorter stacks so I waited. Each one of the 7 went all in and were underdogs. Each one survived their all in. Then I was the short stack and I decided to jam with AK. I got called by A2 and guess what? I bounced on the bubble.

I don't hate the jam with 99, but if we were going to play a hand to survive I prefer being first in which would give us extra time if everyone folded. On this hand we have no FE against the Chip Leader. The CL is CO and has been raising a lot and could have a PP < 99. Or a hand like AXs where X < 9. If either were the case we would have 70%+ or 80%+ of probably getting past the bubble. But with a 54% chance (or 18% if CL has TT+) it's probably not be worth doing it in this spot.

With 6 tickets and only 2 to bust this is a pretty clear fold imo. 99 feels strong but you don't need to win chips here, you just need to not go broke. Let HJ bleed out in the blinds and pick a spot where you're not risking your ticket on a flip.