5/5/10 LAG shoves on river blind
It’s a private game thats action packed. A lot of multiway pots and open sizing pre is huge. Standard open is usually 8-10bb.
Hero $2400 MP A♣︎Q♣︎
Villain $3000 SB - LAG winning player
Preflop
Hero raises 80, BTN calls, SB calls, Straddle calls
Flop 325
6♣︎3♣︎3♠︎
checked to hero, Hero bets 120, BTN folds, SB calls, Straddle folds
Turn 565
J♥︎
SB checks, Hero bets 250, SB raises 600, Hero calls
River 1765
9♣︎
SB goes all-in before the river comes out, Hero?
12 Replies
JJ makes the least sense from a LAG who didn't 3-bet preflop. Still, give him full combos of JJ, 66, and 33. That's 7 hands that beat you and you're getting 2 to 1 on your money.
Name 4 flush combos and you've got your EV
KJcc, JTcc, 45cc, 75cc
It’s a private game thats action packed. A lot of multiway pots and open sizing pre is huge. Standard open is usually 8-10bb. Hero $2400 MP A♣︎Q♣︎Villain $3000 SB - LAG winning playerPreflopHero raises 80, BTN calls, SB calls, Straddle callsFlop 3256♣︎3♣︎3♠︎checked to hero, Hero bets 120, BTN folds, SB calls, Straddle foldsTurn 565J♥︎SB ch
So its about 2k into 1750? Tough spot, maybe he puts you on a big pair and is shoving with a 3 or worse clubs? I'd probably call, lose to weird boats sometimes
Board: 3s6c3cJh9c
Equity Win Tie
MP2 40.00% 40.00% 0.00% { AcQc }
SB 60.00% 60.00% 0.00% { JJ, 66, 33, A3s, 63s, KcJc, JcTc, 7c5c, 5c4c }
Probably can't get worse than that. If you wanna say he can't have 75s, then he probably doesn't have 63s either. If we are gonna leave 63s in there, then we probably need to add 53s and 43s too. But that only makes the call better, not worse.
Really tough spot.
The smallish c/r ott plus the slight overbet all-in (blind) otr, makes me lean towards a boat, but who knows.
Not sure it would have changed the situation, but your bet size ott doesn't look good to me: on a paired board, I think you can check back and pot control, or alternatively bet bigger, like ~400-500.
Really tough spot. Is he a good winning LAG or a lucky winning LAG?
Good LAGs make you think they are loose/crazy in small pots so that you call them in big ones. Or, maybe he knew he wasn't folding river no matter what, so he just shoved himself for maximum pressure?
It's really a table/player read.
I don’t play this high but this is a tell that I have capitalized on before. It’s often a bluff when villain fires without waiting for a river that should be considered. He’s likely expecting to force you off your hand. I know brute force better than anyone.
At the same time, it’s like someone else said, a pro will lure you in and be waiting with the nuts, so I won’t advise you here. I might read this as a bluff, and still fold.
If I watched him myself it would help, because I could tell if he was just loading up without a care or didn’t care because he had it.
Definitely not folding unless you have some killer live read but then this thread wouldn't exist. If you run into 66/33 oh well
So hero calls and SB turns over 6♦︎3♥︎
Got rocked…
It’s a private game thats action packed. A lot of multiway pots and open sizing pre is huge. Standard open is usually 8-10bb. Hero $2400 MP A♣︎Q♣︎Villain $3000 SB - LAG winning playerPreflopHero raises 80, BTN calls, SB calls, Straddle callsFlop 3256♣︎3♣︎3♠︎checked to hero, Hero bets 120, BTN folds, SB calls, Straddle foldsTurn 565J♥︎SB ch
Grunch:
Turn check raises are very under-bluffed.
Hard to fold the NFD getting such a price, but we might consider that as the PFR, our range is likely to be over-pairs drawing to 2 outs and flush draws drawing dead, and this raise size could be intended to keep our entire range in. We should also ask what hands V can have that call flop and x/r turn, if he's probably 3'ing JJ from the SB pre.
I can get behind the turn call, because there's some chance he shows up with something weird like J6s that's worried about us having QQ+, but the river over-bet jam would end the adventure for me. I don't care how aggro he is, I don't think he's taking this line with worse value or as a bluff.
The way hero played the hand up to the turn call looks a lot like an overpair. So perhaps villain will continue bluffing or go for value since any OVP is now a bluff catcher.
Saying "I don't care about the river" with the dark shove is a strong move.
I think V's gotta shove the boats if he's also going to dark shove bluffs. With weaker value like A3 or AJ he might see the river card before deciding... unless he's thinking to turn Jx into a bluff, but that is truly inspired play to be ready to dark shove it.
I would probably call too given our actual hand is stronger than what villain was likely targeting
A tough question, if this player has big bluffs in their arsenal, is how do we feel if we had hit a Q or A on the river?
