1/2: Middle set facing reg’s shove 550bb deep

Grunch:

Something seems off in your reads. If he's a competent reg, what's he doing playing 1/2, and why does he have sizing tells?

Also, in the JJ hand, his 3B size seems silly-small from OOP. Also not sure why he's betting turn or jamming river. His line doesn't make much if any sense. Seems like button clicking to me.

PRE - this deep, I think we should 3B squeeze 88 on the BTN. I'd probably make it $75, to put max pressure on the HJ and CO to fold.

FLOP - not sure what to interpret from V's c-bet into the field, but typically that would be a strong hand. Then again, I expect low stakes players to size up with thick value on such a wet and dynamic board.

V is showing strength, and CO seems capped. We should raise, but our size should be bigger. This deep, I'd make it $90 at least, and might just make it $115, so it's just a single $100 chip to call.

V's 3B is concerning, but our smallish raise size could be inducing at this stack depth. This is where our reads really come into play. Most low stakes players only have top 2P or better here for value, or they're over-playing a big over-pair. Very few will bet-3B a draw, even a combo draw.

In theory, I don't think V should have 22 here when he opens UTG, but this guy sounds like he could be overly aggro, so he might, especially when we're starting so deep. He could also fast-play some strong combo draws like JTss and 76ss.

I'm not really in the business of folding sets in spots like this at low stakes. I'd fold if I was confident V always and only takes this line with 99. If I think he can show up with 22 and combo draws, or even some absurdly over-played over-pairs, it's sort of a mandatory call.

I wouldn't love this spot, this deep. We're pretty face up here, and V doesn't seem the least bit afraid we flopped top 2P+. It's close. I wouldn't hate on anyone for folding, but I'm not sure I could do it at these stakes, even this deep.

So, call.

Why did you not consider 66?
It’s hard to logically fold a set
You’re a 90% favorite vs a random hand
2% favorite vs 99
20% favorite vs Ts7s
70% favorite vs JsTs
98% favorite vs 66
88% vs TT
Do you think big overpairs are in his range?

lol wut??? bet/3bet flop w/66 is suicidal
I'd rather range him to have T7ss than 66 on flop

You asking me or OP?

I wouldn't expect V to bet-3B flop with 66.

Not expecting him to show up with T7ss when he opens UTG, c-bets into multiple people, and then 3B's over a raise on this board. He's playing with fire if he's doing that.

I think this is mostly going to be 99, JTss, 76ss, 22, or 98s, and occasionally an over-played over-pair.

It's fairly unusual to see someone take this line with worse than 88 for value at low stakes. Many won't find a 2x pot jam with just a draw.

The variables that make it more likely are the stack depth, OP's raise size, V's aggro tendencies, and the random spaz factor of low stakes.

We're drawing almost dead against his better value hands, and he doesn't have many combos of worse value. He doesn't even have that many high equity bluff combos. Not counting over-pairs, it's like 6 combos we beat vs 3 that beat us.

I'm not looking for reasons to fold. I'm looking for reasons to call. But it's not a snap call. We have to think he's capable of jamming 2x pot often enough to make this a profitable call.

If I'm doing the math right, we need to be good here around 60% of the time. There are enough worse hands that we could be, but most low stakes players will be under-bluffing here, which makes it seem like a pretty close decision.

I probably call, but I don't love it.

Is it possible he puts you on a draw? Would he 4bet flop w/ AsKs, AsAx, JsTs, etc.? Regardless, I don't think I can fold here unless I'm 90% sure he has 99.

Yeah, if it's set over set, you get stacked. Have to call.

Fold to the flop 3bet.

This is 1/2 NL live. This isn't a tournament. This isn't a high-stakes stream. This isn't GTO world. He just has 99 here every single time.

Nobody 3b bluffs into two people this deep, even with a mega-draw.

Maybe...MAYBE....he has exactly JsTs, but that's one combo compared to 3 combos of 99. You're toast.

There's gotta be a point(pot size) where we stop saying ''set over set'' is a cooler. I'd imagine playing an 1100bb pot at 1/2 that threshold was reached for sure.

I don't think we'll be running into worse when all the money goes in vs this description and I say this as someone who believes that there is no competent regs at 1/2.

I take it that’s one combo you don’t see in his range

Been gathering info from the rest of you, but haven’t changed my mind about folding. Money talks

I’ve watched too many regs like described.
He doesn’t care that you’re strong
He’s not in the habit of bluffing an opponent with a show of strength
He’s probably not spazzing

Whatever the EV, willing to save that money and move on.

Gotta factor in emotional resources, too... but that requires a reliable level of self awareness. Will you be able to make better decisions moving forward with a fold in a close spot, or can you maintain better focus with a call regardless of the outcome if you act based on evidence and clear intention.

At some point we’re too deep to stack off with middle set and 550 bigs seems right around that threshold.

In my experience, it’s best to get out of the way of unusual plays at low limits.

Say it’s the first hand of a tournament and villain jams - what hand would you need to call?

Mentally, I am happy to keep my stack vs a bluff. I can laugh, you got me good
However, I am very unhappy when I call and lose my stack this deep - when I know better

It usually takes me awhile to build a large stack
This is like putting it all on red in roulette. I already have a problem of playing great poker for 6hrs and then screwing everything up with 10 minutes of bad play. I’m not sure the best play here, but it’s too much to risk on one play.

Never forget in the 70s my in-law lost everything, so I gave him $100. He could last a long time with $5 minimums. Instead, I watched in horror as he put it all on red & lost

Your body usually sends physical signals before the emotional part of the brain gets in the driver's seat. Pay attention to those signals and then run a pre-set script in your mind to reduce the frequency and severity of those ten minutes of bad decisions.

I'm agreeing with you. I'm not convinced that once 550bb go into the middle we'll see worse. I'm certainly not convinced a 450bb turn shove is anything but the nuts.

Thanks all.

Results: I crying called.

V shows 99. RIP.

Ouch. Massive cooler :(