KKÂ’s donked into.
1/3 8 handed.
Villain is a 50 year old female dealer. She limps and over limps a lot pre. I haven’t seen her open raise. I have been at the table only an hour. She seems to be the type who wonÂ’t fold a flush draw or over pair no matter the price. I don’t have a read on her flop donk range. I suspect it’s more value oriented like top pair or over pair. It might be very strong like two pair or a set. Basically I don’t know but she seems pretty straight forward.
We both have about 500. I should have a tight image.
It’s folded to me in the CO and I raise to 15 with KsKh, folded to villain in SB and she quickly calls. BB folds.
The pot is 30 minus eventual rake.
8c9c2h She donks 40 and I call. 110 in the pot.
8c9c2h7s She checks.
On the flop I wasn’t sure what to do. I get nervous when a passive player donks. That being said, I wonder If I should have raised. If she 3 bets I can let it go. If she just calls I’d feel pretty good that I had the best hand and would be looking to continue building the pot. Given the big flop bet I chose to just call.
As played, I don’t think she would check two pair or a set on the turn although the 7 might be perceptually scary for her.
How much should I bet on the turn?
How much is this hand worth against a passive player with an unknown donking range?
Why?
30 is good - puts the weaker hands you are targeting into a spot without almost overplaying your hand
Why does this look like a set to me that slowed down to the straight draw on the turn.
Bet/fold turn. 30-60 seems fine. Any larger and she might just call with her strong hands.
If you get to the river, bet whatever amount you think a hand like Q9 would call
I would check behind and try to get to showdown. You don’t have the king of clubs and one pair hands want to arrive cheaply.
I wouldn’t get tricky, just because they checked that set, doesn’t mean they won’t call. Get to the river and evaluate.
I didn’t know if her big donk bet meant she had a monster and wanted to pile in money or a thick value hand she just wanted to protect. You would think a monster would want to CR the flop but I never saw her CR. She didn’t seem to hand read well or at all so maybe she did fear I had a turned straight or two pair. She knew I had something to be calling that big flop bet.
This is why I was wondering if min raising the flop and just going with it made sense if she didn’t reraise. I don’t think she would fold top pair or an over pair.
I would check behind and try to get to showdown. You don’t have the king of clubs and one pair hands want to arrive cheaply.
I wouldn’t get tricky, just because they checked that set, doesn’t mean they won’t call. Get to the river and evaluate.
If we did check the turn and then a blank hit the river and she checked I would think we could bet big. She would have to be a little suspicious. On the other hand if she had a hand that could call a big bet she would probably bet it herself.
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine.
FLOP - generally seems fine to flat call her over-bet donk. The sizing seems like an indication of value being bet for protection.
TURN - my default would be to stab for around 1/2 pot. If we have a better read I might adjust up or down on the bet size. Fold if she x/r's.
I somewhat doubt she slows down on the turn with a strong hand. This somewhat smells like A9/J9 that wants to see a free river.
If she's sticky with TP/over-pairs and draws, I could see that as an argument for sizing up here, maybe even full pot, but we need to over-fold if she donks river.
On the other hand, she could be trapping with JT or some other strong hand. If we've seen her play tricky, I might size down to like $30-$40. Still folding to a x/r and over-folding to a river donk.
She's taken a strange line by over-bet donking and then checking. It looks like she's one-and-doning this, but it's hard to figure out what hands she would do that with. Seems like a lot of her range is going to be clustered around 9x with a little something else going on, like top kicker, maybe with a BDFD, or an OESD or GSSD.
The logic appears to be her hand has too much equity to turn into a bluff, but isn't quite strong enough to play as a three-street bluff-catcher, so her flop donk is intended to stop us from c-betting and barreling turn with an over-bet when she caps her range by check-calling. She's decided her hand is only worth $40, not the higher total of our likely c-bet and turn barrel. She'll likely donk river if she improves and check-fold if she doesn't.
Let's disappoint her by making her pay to see the river. Half pot it.
A passive player who suddenly donks the flop into the PFR? That should set of serious alarm bells. What is your image to her?
I'm fine with calling the flop, but I think betting the turn is lighting money on fire given description. I mean, what is she going to fold?
I'm fine with preflop.
The SPR is a huge 16 on the flop. I don't think we should ever be attempting to play for stacks (which a raise will start putting into play) with just one pear in these spots as we're justifying our opponents loose preflop calls if we're gonna hurp durp off our stack with the worst of it often postflop. We're also facing a very large bet on the flop. So with that in mind, I just call and see what happens on the turn.
Even thought the turn card completes some straights it's not as if we should have those, so I kinda doubt a straightforward player is checking better here. So I think we've used our position nicely here to gain some valuable information, and now I bet for value. I'd probably go like 2/3rds or something, and again for for value on safe rivers if checked to again. If we're check/raised at any point we can typically safely fold against this player type.
GcluelessNLnoobG
but I think betting the turn is lighting money on fire given description. I mean, what is she going to fold
Are you thinking our turn bet is a bluff?
Gthere'sstillacraploadofhandstogetvaluefrombeforeahugeamountofscarecardskilltheaction,imoG
Are you thinking our turn bet is a bluff?
Gthere'sstillacraploadofhandstogetvaluefrombeforeahugeamountofscarecardskilltheaction, imoG
Pretty much. I'm thinking our turn bet doesn't fold any of her range, and we have to be willing to bomb most rivers if checked to to have any chance of getting her to fold.
Remember, just because we are thinking players doesn't mean she is 😉 We already know she likes to chase, and no way she's folding two pair or better.
I ended up betting 60 on the turn and she quickly called. The river was the 3s and I checked. She showed QQ’s. I felt Like I missed value which is why I posted.
I ended up betting 60 on the turn and she quickly called. The river was the 3s and I checked. She showed QQ’s. I felt Like I missed value which is why I posted.
Probably missed some value. Hard to put her on a hand as strong as QQ, but we could target her strong TP holdings.
Don't beat yourself up. She took a strange line.
QQ is about the only hand you beat that she shows up with that you could get any value from.
Again, advantage of being a female player 😉
A passive player who suddenly donks the flop into the PFR That should set of serious alarm bells. What is your image to her
I'm fine with calling the flop, but I think betting the turn is lighting money on fire given description. I mean, what is she going to fold
We don't want her to fold. We'd be betting for value. We want her to call.
Normally when this type of player donks the flop, they can beat KK. I'm glad that wasn't the case this time. Give me one other hand she donks the flop with besides QQ (I guess maybe JJ, maybe) that we beat?
Wish the reveal wasn't so soon, but a worse overpair makes up a huge percentage of her range (as does other worse hands). I'm obviously never expecting her to fold two pear+, but I'm not betting turn and river to get her to fold, I'm betting for fat value against the zillions of hands we beat. We'll valuetown oursleves sometimes against a weirdly / MUBSily played two pear+, but otherwise we're missing huge value against everything else. Also thanks to the large SPR, plus the fact she's never going to check/raise with worse (where a bet can cost us the pot), we can bet/fold later streets with impunity.
The river check back is actually quite a decent mistake, imo. Even if we guestimate we valuetown oursleves 1/3rd of the time (it's actually a lot lower given her line, imo), a very reasonable $100 into $230 on the river is a missed $30 in EV (a full hour+ of work for most of us). An even more reasonable 2/3rd PSB of $150 (which a calling station is going to call with any TP almost always) costs us a huge $45 in EV... and that's all with the unreasonable assumption we're valuetowning ourselves upwards of 1/3rd of a time (which we aren't given her line).
One of the biggest differences between meh winrates and more solid winrates is making that river bet, imo.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Give me one other hand she donks the flop with besides QQ (I guess maybe JJ, maybe) that we beat
Worse:
QQ 6
JJ 6
TT 6
A9s 3
K9s 2
Q9s 3
J9s 3
T9s 3
Better:
99 3
88 3
22 3
98s 3
About 2:1 in our favour against reasonable hands. Add in any donked draws or some offsuit variety of hands and it isn't even remotely close. Still fine with a flop call of this large bet to see what she does on the turn, where she has pretty much turned her hand face up on the table as a worse one.
GcluelessNLnoobG
Even if you take out pretty much all those combos, we're still ~50/50. Add in the occasional draw and it's still not very close.
The main point though is she has pretty much turned her hand face up on the turn. Like two pear+ is just pretty much never not betting here.
IIRC correctly, I posted a hand ~last year versus a nit where he limp/calls preflop and I go for multiple streets postflop with AT on a T high flop that remains that way to the river. I kicked myself for betting the river too thinly cuz obviously passive overpears are a huge part of his range (and, sure enough, I owned myself against his JJ). But this ain't that spot.
GimoG
