$3 MTT, 400 field, Final Table 3 handed, ATs on the Turn
SB folded and had 10bb left
NL Holdem $2.94+$0.36 (25000BB)
HERO ($418788) [VPIP: 25.8% | PFR: 17.2% | AGG: 32.6% | Flop Agg: 48.4% | Turn Agg: 38.9% | River Agg: 29% | 3Bet: 7.5% | 4Bet: 14.3% | Hands: 526]
SB ($279646) [VPIP: 30.4% | PFR: 20.3% | AGG: 14.3% | Hands: 71]
BB ($1276566) [VPIP: 34.2% | PFR: 27.4% | AGG: 43.5% | Flop Agg: 77.8% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 100% | 3Bet: 20% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 6.7% | Hands: 80]
Dealt to Hero: A♠ T♠
HERO Raises To $53125, SB Folds, BB Calls $25000
Hero SPR on Flop: [3 effective]
Flop ($121875): 3♥ 9♣ J♦
BB Checks, HERO Checks
Turn ($121875): 3♥ 9♣ J♦ T♣
BB Checks, HERO Bets $60938 (Rem. Stack: $304725), BB Raises To $500000 (Rem. Stack: $723441), HERO?
7 Replies
Can’t see much that takes this line that you’re beating.
Really? Tons of combo draws could.
I wouldn't bet the turn if I didn't know what to do afterward. Probably smarter not to bet the turn for ICM reasons and keep the pot manageable regardless.
Fair comment. Are you even slightly tempted to call though?
Yeah, I am thinking about it. What better hand takes this line instead of betting turn / shoving river? There aren't many hands that beat us but are vulnerable and require protection. And those hands can't exactly count on you to bet the turn yourself.
Again, good reason to check your medium strength hands in general, and to check back your marginal value bets in ICM-heavy spots.
thanks 😀
Looking at this again, we unblock every draw-- clubs, straight draws both open-ended and gutshots-- so it might be a call.
I think I would rather call with KT than AT, though. Even though we block one gutshot, we also block KQ, and if we're wrong and he is shoving something like a set or 87 here, we still have four outs instead of drawing dead.
The unfortunate side is, he might take this line on the turn with Jx. Or at least, I can see it with the logic being "You would have bet the flop if you had Jx, so you probably have Tx or a draw you're semi-bluffing, and a lot of rivers are bad for me and I won't know which draw you have, so let's just end the hand now."
But anyway, checking the turn is the significantly superior option.
