AKo in mix game
2/5 NLH - 2/5 PLO - 3k max - ROE - 8 handed
Villain - 1k
Hero - Covers
My thoughts - v is older thinking player capable of bluffing, making big laydowns, etc. will spew if tilted but hit quads in a big pot before i got to table so feeling good. burned through most of the profits calling pre, whiffing draws etc and back to around his starting stack.
2 folds, V opens 20, hero AKo 3b 65, folds to V who calls
Ah Th 4c - pot 137
X, H bets 60, call
Ah Th 4c 7c - pot 257
X, H bets 125, V raises to 375
A little speech play on the turn, i said " Villain ( not going to use his name) did you flop a set of tens? i know your not peeling pre with fours and your not floating 7s." His response was " maybe, could have Fds, combo draws all kinds of things, what do you have that you need to ask me these questions?" we both laugh along with a few others at the table.
i think hes mostly telling the truth, he seemed very nervous during his response so i think he could be drawing or he could be afraid of getting drawn out on.
Hero calls
Ah Th 4c 7c Td - pot 1007
Villain jams for 545, hero ??
He thinks for maybe 3-5 seconds and jams. i havent played a large pot with him in quite awhile so i dont know if nerves are a thing when he has air or a big hand trying to get paid. some people are nervous for both, others only one.
Crucial note here, i check my hole cards and have Ac Ks. i knew they were black so they were irrelevant to the front door but getting 3 to 1 can i really fold here blocking a good chunk of his turn x-r combo draw range of Ac-Kc,Qc,Jc?? very tough spot that i couldnt work out on my own after thinking about it all night and the day after. could i fold turn holding Ac even without the speech play? what if i have AcQs or AcJs?
This is more of a looking for a line of thought vs this specific hand result. How do i play my range here? i dont think i have any turn jams so AA and TT are top of range with AK being 3rd. idk, stuck on this one. help a brother out lol
13 Replies
Hand seems like one where a table read is key. You said villain has burned thru chips on whiffed draws- did he play those aggressively or passively?
For hands that might r/c pre, I think all the sets, AT, and A4s could be in play. If he's slightly tilted no reason to rule out 44. Agree 77 doesn't seem likely.
Villain speech is tricky. I tend to think that "truth tellers" are more specific and the "could be anything" seems more like deliberate misdirection, since you have suggested your hand strength is one pair by asking the question. You have to know the river bet is coming so the turn is the time to decide.
Beluga theorem?
Unless you know villain is capable of turn raises with semibluffs, I wouldn't call the raise.
Turn I probably either check or go bigger to like 300. If I know villain will float often and stab turns when checked to alot, I'd check/jam.
Also, I wouldn't ask such questions on the turn to give your hand away unless I'd fold immediately or unless this was a river bet. I'd rather you ask such questions when you have the nuts during a hand to slowplay or whatever.
As played, the board came out super good for you, it's a snap call after the turn call.
But, with all the speech and stuff, villain might be more nutted than you think. I'd have folded on the turn. But after this hand got to the river, it's a snap call.
Was your speech after V raised the turn and before you called? I’m not a big fan of making speeches. I would read that your speech suggests you don’t have AA or TT, you have only AQo+, ATs+. I think that in his speech, V is saying, I have better than top pair.
Baluga Whale Theorem makes sense. Unless V is playing 3rd level poker, a raise on the turn is two pair or better. So I’m probably making a nitty fold on the turn.
AP, I’m folding the river. Most Vs don’t make big river bluffs.
I think here about one of Ed Miller’s top five strategies tips: don’t call big bets on the turn or river against unknowns unless you have the nuts or second nuts.
Why are we betting so big on the flop and so small on the turn? Anyway bet the correct sizes then just snap fold vs turn xr
Probably has a ten
Could be 89 of hearts, with big semi-bluff - that improves on the turn, but then misses river. I don’t see many other bluffs
It would be helpful in these posts to know how Hero is perceived - to me, that’s more important than how we look at villain.
I would have bet bigger on the flop and this is one of the rare times I check the turn. When I can’t get a grasp on what he’s calling with, I take the free card. Maybe it’s not a thing anymore, but I pot control with 1Pair - I’d like to get to showdown without investing too much. Not sure how villain reacts now, but you should have an easier decision.
After your speech capped you at one pair, is this guy capable of a bluff? As played, I fold to the turn check-raise. If you’re calling 3bets and check-raises at low limits it’s likely a mistake.
It becomes much harder to fold the river when you improve and possibly counterfeit villain. He’s not bluffing, but you might have caught up.
I think dango nailed this
You have the best 1Pair hand, it’s no good to this action, but if you’re still there on the river, it’s a sigh call.
I open and call pretty tight, so when I 3bet most everyone gets out of the way. It’s my exploit. However, most people are not 3betting light. They know my range is strong, so when they 3bet me, they mean business. I exploit and get out of the way
If you’re a nit - more bluffs are possible as he thinks he can make you fold or your speech may have given him the same impression.
If you’re loose - he’s likely value-betting
He may be thinking it will be funny when you fold and he shows the bluff
now i have to look up Baluga Whale Theorem... because i dont know what that is lol
my image is solid. i get my fair share of bluffs through and thin value aswell. I do show bluffs/supernut hands in the plo round when i get folds ( examples
AJJ9 OTB and flop is Q98r. checks to me i bet flop, turn brick, checks to me i bet, folds - i show bluff. or a hand like AsKKQs on KJTss check to me i bet and get all folds, etc) but holdem i never show unless they pay.
this villian i have played for years with at a different room when i was playing 3-4 days a week. i took 3 years off to build a business and have just started returning to the game as i have some more time to play.
He is retired, french, likes horses and is a capable player.
turn convo happened after the raise
i bet small on turn because he doesnt fold KQ, KJ, QJ, KT, QT, JT on flop, i want to target the largest portion of his range. betting large on turn folds out almost that entire range.
It might be useful to know the positions of the players, assuming his EP opens trend stronger than his MP or LP opens.
Grunch:
PRE - seems fine. With more details I might argue for a larger raise size or occasionally a smooth call. But this seems standard so far.
FLOP - I'd over-bet AK on AT4hhc. Probably use a smooth number like $150.
TURN - this deep, I'd over-bet again, to set up an easy river jam.
When we barrel 1/2 pot on this board, I think it looks weak, and can induce shenanigans. V's 3X raise size looks bluffy. Think I'd 3B-jam.
RIVER - I think your turn play and convo makes your hand somewhat face up, and V is going to jam most rivers whether he makes his hand or not.
That T on the river either filled him up or bricked all his draws. Can't fold now. Just call it off and tap the table if he's got you beat.
Just read the rest of the thread.
It would help to know V's position, for the sake of ranging him.
I wouldn't think he had TT on the turn. There's only 1 combo possible on the river. There's 1 combo of ATs possible.
This sort of smells like A4 or A7 that got counterfeited when the deck bailed us out. Or a bricked draw. For value, 77 is one of the few hands that makes some sense, and it's just 3 combos. I guess maybe 44, too.
Again, if we knew V's position, we might discount him having 44/77 when he opens and calls our 3B pre.
I'll point out that we have the Ac, and the 7c and 4c are on board, with the Ah. V could have 4 combos of A4s or A7s.
I somewhat expect V had some AX combo that was getting out in front of his skis when another FD appeared on the turn. We might be chopping with AK here, but we could see AQ/AJ.
Can't fold. Just call. Don't play vulnerable TPTK hands this way.
It sounds like he could easily have KcQc also. Factoring in the counterfeit possibilities it’s a grit n’ call imo.
Best explanation is https://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/theorems/baluga/
You must reevaluate the strength of top pair when facing a raise on the turn.
Tricky, because there are 2 flush draw plus straight draws on the turn, so he could be raising all sorts of draws, as well as sets. There also aren't many likely 2 pairs.
villains position is in the OP, **2 folds, villain opens, hero 3b**
idk the terminology, i just know 6m, EP, MP, CO, BU, SB, BB. so 8 handed would be BB, SB, BU, CO, HJ, LJ, MP, EP? so he is LJ and im HJ i guess.
Focusing on the speech play and trying to get a read cost me the hand because had i known i have the Ac, i would of folded turn. i knew one of them was a club because it wasnt AK suited but i got caught up in the conversation looking for a read and didnt re-check my cards.
He never has A4, A7 or 77. 44 is possible considering we are deep enough in his POV to try and set mine but 77 would fold to flop cb 100%
