Facing a block bet on a dynamic river and we are feeling like sending it

I tend to think that this small bet will more often be bluffs cheaply targetting your exact hand than it will be thin value bets targetting your exact hand. On the other hand those weak overpairs will fold if you pull the trigger. My inclination is call given odds rather than jam but it's an interesint hand

If Villain played 88 this way, he is a moron. And he is half a moron if he played 33 or 55 this way.

Would probably never bet flop with this hand.

V is tight, opens MP and calls 3bet OOP. Then x/c on 853ddc. Then it runs out 6c 7c.

First obvious question: WTF bluffs does he have? Like AdJd/KdQd/QdJd/JdTd that hates to semi-bluff flop, but loves to fire small bets on the river with air? Any 9,8,7,6,5,4,3 beats us. Being good 17.5% seems like hopium.

Would only bluff with AcKx if I was playing someone I'd seen at 2-5 a few times ... that way I'll get some value from it when he calls.

Would assume random player didn't actually see V's hand and then 87s makes the most sense for V.

i mean is fairly obvious to me if he has air he is going to use a larger size here lol

would need to really play around with solver for an amount of time im unwilling to do to assess river jam. at equilibrium he basically gotta pure fold 2p-set, v much doubt ppl block / vb one pair here, but i guess u could come up with strategy for him where he never traps sets / flushes in the small size and maybe this becomes okish. doubt though (the guys who never trap probably dont pure fold sets)

If he folded a set, you must target his table every chance you get.

It depends how wide he floats flop, but all unpaired diamond combos (there are many more than you listed), stuff like Adx and I find people sometimes show up with stuff like random offsuit Broadways/worse offsuit Ax even if they should be folding flop.

For the record I'm typically folding this river spot. I was just saying if you think he is FOS I would prefer calling over raising (without the Ac). You lose to all the thin value that might fold to a raise, but you have to risk a lot less by calling than raising.

In our opponent's spot low stakes players often miss the thin value bets and would bet bigger with their fat value, so it's not totally unreasonable to think that at least 1/5 of his small river bets are just air stabbing after you checked back turn.

Glad it worked, but not sure what you represent. You 3! preflop, so you shouldn't have a straight.