Winner leaked for NBC Heads Up Championship by Polymarket? (probable spoilers inside)
There is aPolymarket for the NBC heads up champ:
A general warning about Prop markets from one of the most famous professional prop betters out there
It clearly wasnt an invasion for anyone who knows what the word invasion means. It would be a bigger scam if people who bet against a US invasion lost because of this operation.
The US did not invade Pakistan when they took out Bin Laden.
It clearly wasnt an invasion for anyone who knows what the word invasion means. It would be a bigger scam if people who bet against a US invasion lost because of this operation.
The US did not invade Pakistan when they took out Bin Laden.
bin Laden was not the head of government/head of state of Pakistan he was a fugitive, and you can debate to what extent the Pakistan government knew they were harboring him.
You can very reasonably argue that sending in the military to cut all the power off, and roll up to the mansion of a country's President, shoot all his bodyguards, and capture him is an invasion especially when the POTUS explicitly said afterwards that a goal is for American corporations to take control of Venezuelan oil. Even if it was a 2 hour invasion which was a complete American military victory. The invasion of Grenada only lasted 4 days.
Insider trading is grey area on Polymarket, saying it's "completely 100% legal" is not entirely correct. It's regulated by the CFTC, the CFTC doesn't really have much history of prosecuting insider trading and some forms of insider trading with instruments regulated by the CFTC, like a farmer buying wheat futures as a hedge against a wheat crop that they know is going to fail, is completely legal. However you could likely be violating an NDA, violating regulations set by the CFTC, or some other law by insider trading on Polymarket. There's also a bill in the Senate to address and clear up the grey area and regulate insider trading on prediction markets.
One thing as well that has gotten popular with sharks on Polymarket is they've picked up on what insider trading patterns look like. A lot of these markets are very illiquid, so you can move the line very significantly with as little as $5k or $10k. Sharks with real insider info will put $5k or $10k, sometimes $50k into the wrong side of a Polymarket bet, use a new account so copytraders go "OMG IT HAS TO BE AN INSIDER!", move the line, pay shills to hype the bet on social media, wait for dumb money copytraders to pile in on the wrong side of the bet, then blast $200k on the real winner at 1% chance to win and print insane amounts of profit off it.
The illiquidity, the grey area around insider trading, the lack of any regulatory oversight, and most markets being hilariously illiquid where you can't get any action for real size makes it overall unattractive imo.
It clearly wasnt an invasion for anyone who knows what the word invasion means. It would be a bigger scam if people who bet against a US invasion lost because of this operation.
The US did not invade Pakistan when they took out Bin Laden.
The settlement statement "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET."
Seems pretty sloppy if the only settlement in the positive is a Normandy style moving front line assault, especially after establishing control of the Royal Palace to depose Maduro then Trump stating that they would run the country for a while.
I don't have a dog in the fight. I almost never hold anything to settlement because I just want a nice airdrop for using the platform. But normies are getting fleeced at unheard of rates and its pretty easy to see why
The settlement statement "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET."Seems pretty sloppy if the only settlement in the positive is a Normandy style moving front line assault, especially after establishing control of
If that was indeed the wording then I change my opinion (yes voters got scammed) but that wording doesnt describe an "invasion" so the initial twitter post could have been a lot more clear.
