1-2 Going bananas deep-ish with 8s7s on Ax9s5s vs. guy who moved down from 2-5 5h ago

We have 0 fold equity once he 3bets, hence, imho calling flop is best. Folding is probably even better than jamming on top.

If turn pairs up, we can fold.

Also there's a chance villain doing this with nfd, which you have very low equity.

V range is very nutted or has nutted draws. Facing this range, jamming doesn't accomplish much, we are a slight dog against such range.

Pre is fine.

Post: I flat the donk. It's into two people. He likely has something here. It's also not clear he has a fold button, and if we are semi bluffing, we need fold equity, and if we think we do, why are just doing a pot sweetner raise?

As played: When he re-raises here, huge alarm bells go off, and I think I might have a tight fold. He could easily have AsXs here which we have terrible equity here.

Jinx!

I love opponents who give away this much info. He's telling us a lot.

He's tilted. He's emotional. He's chatty. He's LAGy. He doesn't like to fold. He sees himself as being much better than he actually is. He does that "betting to find out where I'm at" thing. When he says he's not on a draw, he's telling the truth, but he's trying to rep a stronger hand.

About this hand:

PRE - seems standard.

FLOP - V donked first to act into two opponents on an ace-high, two-tone board. I wouldn't raise. He's going to have a weak ace, often AXss, or 95, more often than 9x. I would just call, and evaluate on the turn, expecting him to bomb it on a brick or spade.

While our hand has a ton of equity, our fold equity is through the floor. And we know he often responds to aggression with more aggression. It would suck to raise and have him 3B huge.

When we raise, and he 3B's, even for just 4x, he's not screwing around. In fact, if he was screwing around, he might jam to get a range fold. I don't think he's folding for another $300 after putting in $112 and donk-3B'ing.

The donk-snap-3B is interesting. I'd think that's a sign of strength. Any marginal hand or air-ball might take a moment to think about the situation. That snap-3B is often an indication of barely restrained excitement, like a compressed spring waiting to be released.

I wouldn't be confident our flush draw is good. I'd be very concerned we only have 3 clean outs to the gutter.

All the above said, I'm somewhat anticipating the reveal to be he snapped and showed 43ss or something equally ridonkulous. Can't ever completely rule out some degree of random-spaz factor when the tilted maniac is in there.

So V basically plays like an LLM bot, just doing some random button clicking based on very misunderstood logic other than "what feels right". Certainly zero consideration for range or perceived range. His JJ 5bet is abhorrent, and in the KJ vs KT hand flop is a raise with your OESD, not a call. OTTH, V does it again with his "i dunno what to do so I'm just going to bet tiny and see what happens" donkbet. Another prime spot to raise him. His flop 3bet is once again totally spastic and a major overplay no matter what he has. But we have 8 high, I mean there's nothing going on here with this hand and we just have to fold. He's bluffing with the best hand, so play into it and lament that you folded KK or or TPTK or something absurd.

nice of you to send him back to 2/5

When I was thinking after he 3bet flop I did think of this, and if I thought this was likely I probably sigh fold... but I didn't think he'd be donking that kind of hand, and certainly not 3bet raising big with it.

Also didn't feel much like 55 or 99, as the 3bet size felt so much like A9/A5 or maybe AK/AQ that is pretty sure he's ahead now but is desperate to not see a flush card on the turn.

That did mean that calling to not see a board pair seemed very bad, as he might well fold if a spade hit the turn and shove otherwise ... but if the board paired the 9 or 5 I could easily be folding still drawing live.

FWIW I did think I had minimal fold equity, but it felt like one of those spots where if I'm folding this then I'm probably folding everything except AA/99/55/A9s.

Probably still a punt though, given every response so far.

Yeh, if I'd known I would have raised KJ there but that was the first time I'd seen him donk and I mostly give people a bit too much respect on the first donk, esp. on this kind of board (QT5 two tone), because so many people will only donk with hands that beat KQ and little else.

Obviously that hand affected this hand though, due to seeing what he had.

You are 18% against Asxs, 31% against broadway spades, 35% against a set, 41% against aces up, and 48% against AQ. I think you need to fold to the flop 3!. I understand he maybe plays crazy, but I don't see how the shove can be good. Also, you maybe have to flat call the donk bet, because you have a hand you don't want to gii with.

This falls under the category of we want to attack weak ranges for a bluff, not strong ones. This is a great flop for a semi-bluff, but not the right spot, because a big part of that play is fold equity.

His comment: ‘he’s never folding that hand’ and description makes it likely he will call with a made hand. Maybe you think he will level himself and fold, but I can’t see that in this snapshot.

A good player reads a donk like this as weak, attacks and gets folds often. So, though I prefer to call in this spot, I don’t mind the raise. But with villain’s reaction, I like the raise, because it told me I was beat and an easy fold.

Against a random hand poker cruncher this hand with this flop is 60% favorite, but this is not a random hand. Even against 2pair, you have 40% equity, even if he has the ace of spades, so there’s that. In fact, I was surprised you weren’t further behind in that scenario.

Overall, I don’t think this play is terrible, but I think you’re likely going to have to hit your hand. The implied odds if he gets beat by another flush it may tilt him more.

I hold onto the belief that when I should fold, and jam instead - it probably gets thru enough to be +EV. Your play looks strong and people have too much respect for all-in bets. I still think I would fold, but it’s not a bad gamble. About like New England money line.

The jam is optimistic but not the worst play I’ve seen today. If there’s fold equity it’s probably ok.

Don’t show the A6 in the A96 hand. If I call and lose and they ask what I had I say I was bluffing.

Preflop is I guess standard, but you are sort of bluffing and you are generally going to wind up 3-way or more to the flop. There is some value that your raise range is not always high cards or premium hands. and you may prefer to raise than limp.

Flop raise is also a semibluff. It might be OK, but once you get 3!, you are almost always the underdog. Unless you have significant FE, you have to fold to the 3!. You are badly crushed by Asxs or a set.

overbet KcJx river anywhere between b150 and all of it

here peel the 3b, would prob raise flop bigger if hes depolar

would ignore most of the advice as per usual but i think when he makes it 100 you have basically no fold equity (he seems super loose passive anyways) so i dont really see how ev(jam) could be > ev(call). worrying about defending x% of your range is lol at 1/2 let alone vs random at 1/2 clicking buttons. but i still think good amount of ev in calling the 3b so i think folding is the worst option. i really wouldnt worry about folding your equity on a brick turn as it looks like a fold to me on a brick if he jams for ~300 into 240 anyways. but that doesnt mean you should torch ev by jamming the flop if you think hes never folding.

Not sure we can call the 3!. If we miss and he shoves, we have fold. If we miss and he checks, it is not a great situation. If we hit the flush, we have to gii, but are often drawing dead.

calling the 3b is worth 10+bb vs pretty much any range i can put in i guess except {axss}.

if he checks after 3bing the flop its a great situation, you can realize all of your equity

Honestly I think this is completely backwards. Would expect the range that donks for $5 on QT5tt to be entirely hands that lose to KQ. Maybe the range is slightly stronger if he chooses a bigger sizing. Would always raise KJ against this action (with a club or without) and I like following through on the river in your specific spot.

As for the hand in question, I think flop raise is fine but I would go at least $35. $25 seems really weak which invites the 3bet (and your hand really does not want to get 3bet). As played I'm on board with call. I'm sure I've shoved in worse spots though. Can't imagine folding.

I don't see how anyone can read the KJ vs KT HH and think that flop should be a flat.

I think the presence of AXss in villain's range (I think this is exactly how certain fish would play A2ss) would lead me away from shoving, but it can't be awful, especially if he has any hands (ATo? KXss?) that might 3b-fold. Call flop and evaluate turn (easy but sad fold to turn jam) is probably best.

How many players will 3b flop and fold? This doesn't seem like one of them. Take from that what you will.

And once the 3b is out there, I don't mind calling flop to bink but AXss looms large in Vs range and would be deciding btw call and fold.

Pre is fine. Once he raises to $100 on the flop, you should have zero fold equity, so it's just a gamble. We have to hope we have more outs than a non-spade 6 😉

stupidbanana-level misdirection

Expertly played.

Bad call in SB preflop with A9o, but typical of a lot of low stakes players. Not a surprising hand for him to be 3-betting with, but I would expect more A9s/A5s, since he was supposedly a decent player.

On the flop, you were 41% against top two pair. If you knew what he had, then folding would be better than shoving. I still don't think you can shove flop. Maybe calling flop 3! is better than folding.