PAHWM: How to get paid with the nizzles

Eh, I don't love the flop check but after you kind of have to raise something to this action ... if you call BTN is never betting any turn unless he has K6 or better on the turn (or is a complete idiot betting everything), and unless anyone else is very special they are going to check to the guy who bet even if they have like A6s. The problem with check/raising small into a bet and 4 calls is that it looks super nutted/weird if anyone has a clue, but then x/r to 255 doesn't exactly look weak unless they have a 6 (or maybe want to chase 97) and think you'll do this with JJ.

I would probably overestimate how good everyone is and make it 255, and everyone then folds. So maybe call is better than that.

The button betting exactly the same as H did pf, is a little strange. I don't know what it means. Probably a 6. Maybe 86, lol.

Pot will be ~600 with a call, and 790 back for H. H could wait to see if Turn brings something like an A or a 7/9/T/4: something that might've brought in a straight or given someone 2P.

H is also not obligated to x turn just because they x-c flop. Besides, one of the three Vs ahead of H might bet turn. If so, H can probably ship, given the pot size, and if I'm right about BU having a 6, get called anyway. If not, betting out for 150-200 on turn either gets called, or they've nothing anyway.

Click it to $125.

The only scenario that worries me is the BTN having 66. Otherwise it seems like we're in a good position to navigate no matter what happens next.

I like it so far. Make it $150 - $200. Nobody is folding a 6 -- and probably not a straight draw, etc. If someone has 66 it's a major cooler.

How to get paid with the nizzles
2/5-10 (1000).

a fantastic table at which Hero has been epicly card dead. 1 reg, no pro players, some very bad recs and a lot of money has been moving.

mistakes were made in this hand.

utg (1500) is an ok rec. He's just moved back to my town after a decade away. I recognise him from 10 years ago and he's been snug enough to this point. Straightforward pre flop....limps when he wants to see a flop with speculative hands, opens/raises when strong. Seems to know what he's doing and has bet/folded a couple of times

HJ (2000) also seems ok He's run incredibly well in the 2 hours I've played with him, going form 800 to 2k and has hit flops and rivers very hard and taken big pots off Button. Looks reggy - is young Asian guy, bet sizing looks decent, he handles his chips well but he's benefitted from a few very loose flop and turn calls and there's a chance he might be a fish

CO Hero (950) middle aged reg. Have been folding all night, trying not to get tilted as I muck J2 and 93o while watching huge pots being won by terrible play.

Button (1300). Has been transported from the good old days of 2005. Overvalues top pair and makes nonsensical bluffs. Hasn't seen a board he won't stab at and he loves bluffing when draws come in. In for maybe 3 k. Wants to see flops and will see 70+% of pots in single raised hands

BB (700) friends with straddle. Seems somewhat aware but just there for action. Is in for at least 2k. Wants to see flops, and is happy to call 30, 35 or 40 with a broad range. Gives himself the chance to get lucky post flop - chases draws, gutshots etc.

Straddle 1200. Very similar player to BB. also in for 2k at least

The hand...2/5-10. I think pre flop is standard so I'll summarise that but let me know thoughts on bet sizing if needed

utg limps 10,
cut off calls,
Hero looks down at 88 and raises to 55.
Button calls
BB calls
Straddle calls
UTG calls
HJ calls

Flop ($332) is 866. Yahtzee!

checks to hero in cut off

Hero checks,
Button bets $55
BB folds
Straddle calls
UTG calls
HJ calls
Hero calls

Turn (607) is 10d. Board is now 8c 6d 6s 10d

Checks to Hero.

Hero?

So...BTN's flop bet was either a FOS stab, or 66/86/6x trying to eke out a sliver of value, or occasionally maybe some sort of draw, like 97, that just got there.

There's now 3 to a straight on board, and a BDFD out there. If BTN was just FOS, I'd think he'd check this back. Otherwise, I'd think he'd probably bet again.

Even if this checks through, someone may have picked up a diamond draw that may come in on the river. Even if no draws complete, if the turn checks through, the straddle or UTG may stab at it on the river. I'd think we'd hear from someone who actually has a hand with a river bet, so I wouldn't worry too much about this checking through again.

So, I'd probably just check again.

Alternatively, you could bet small here, like $150, which might look like we turned TP or maybe a straight. I doubt anyone with 6x or the FD is going to fold to a 1/4 PSB.

No matter what happens here, we'll be guessing on the river. I wouldn't expect 6x to fold if we bet. I wouldn't necessarily expect 66 to raise. If BTN checks it back, I'd think that would make it less likely he has 66, and we could feel better about betting the river for value if it checks to us again.

Looking at this more...we went to the flop 6 ways. We were the only one showing any aggression. I'd think 66 is going to be in everyone's range here, and anyone with 66 isn't likely to check-raise. I'd think 66 would slow play as long as others are putting money into the pot.

Also, I wouldn't completely rule out BTN having TT here.

On the other hand, when the BTN bets flop, what hands come along?

I'd think 77 isn't folding on the flop. Maybe 55 calls, but I'd think probably not. Doubtful 22-44 is going to stay in from OOP. If anyone got in here with 99, I'd think 99 would stay in. Maybe 75 and 97 stick around. And then of course there's 86 and 6x. Maybe also some 8X combos, like A8s.

Assuming 6 combos of 77, maybe 6 total of 99/55, maybe 6 of 97/75, I'm guessing 1 of 86hh if we don't have the 8h, maybe 8 combos of 6x, and if we don't have the 8d, maybe 1 combo of A8dd, there are 28 combos we beat that make some sense getting to the flop. Maybe we ought to be conservative and call it 20-25 combos.

Versus 1 combo of 66....yeah, if we lose a bunch of money here, it's a huge cooler.

That said, I wouldn't expect very many of those combos to continue after more than one other player shows interest if the BTN bets again.

If the BTN bets turn again, I'd expect the UTG and straddle to fold out 99, 77, 55, and 75. I'd expect 97 to raise at some frequency. I'd think they'd only continue as a flat call with maybe 10-12 combos from the list above.

It's still a lot of combos that we beat, and they're mostly very strong hands: pair + NFD, trips, straights, and a boat. If BTN bets and any of them raise, or if any of them come out and donk the river, we'll be guessing if they've got 66 or one of the 10-12 combos we beat.

Without doing the math, I'm guessing we'll have around a PSB left going to the river. When there's 1 combo we lose to, and 10-12 we beat, I don't see how all the money doesn't go in at some point.

Bet $200 now. Looks as if you are scared of a 6 and you want to "find out where you are at."

I'd go more to 300. Anyone calling 200 is calling 300. We're going to lose people at the river so betting smaller on the turn loses some of their money. You give the river call to be over 3:1. Hard to fold an overpair getting over 3:1.

What over-pairs are we expecting to see here?

I think the $200 looks a little more "desperate, " so maybe they will raise with a 6, but I agree if they are just calling, they will call $300 as soon as $200.

66 is basically irrelevant. If we don't get stacked by 66 we misplayed the hand, because we'll never stack worse.

I disagree with flop and turn. One good principle against bad players is to give them as many decisions to make as possible. We haven't created many opportunities for them to make mistakes.

We could bet $100 now and give the whole table another bite at the apple.

We also might get the same $ as a larger bet if everyone just calls. 2 or 3 crying calls vs 1 call from 2nd best.

very good analysis

other than button, I think we would have definitely heard from a 6 by now. And even probably the case 8. I honestly think that the overcallers...particularly BB and straddle in particular have random broadways that they're hoping to hit on the turn and then some weird pocket pairs as well as gut shots and up and downs.

I will post detailed reasonings etc after the hand (and as I wrote in the OP....'mistakes were made') but the sheer wideness of their calling ranges was why I chose not to check raise flop because I do think it would force them to re-consider my strength and I really wanted someone to be able to catch up on the turn to get more value

me personally, I had totally discounted 1010+. These guys would have raised or 3bet pre and I think button. 99 is a possibility from button but I think that's all

agree with all this. I was going to be paying off 66 at this table.

I don't really want to see a third 6 but other than button, I don't think anyone has one here - they would have check raised or bet turn

brace yourselves...

How to get paid with the nizzles
2/5-10 (1000).

a fantastic table at which Hero has been epicly card dead. 1 reg, no pro players, some very bad recs and a lot of money has been moving.

mistakes were made in this hand.

utg (1500) is an ok rec. He's just moved back to my town after a decade away. I recognise him from 10 years ago and he's been snug enough to this point. Straightforward pre flop....limps when he wants to see a flop with speculative hands, opens/raises when strong. Seems to know what he's doing and has bet/folded a couple of times

HJ (2000) also seems ok He's run incredibly well in the 2 hours I've played with him, going form 800 to 2k and has hit flops and rivers very hard and taken big pots off Button. Looks reggy - is young Asian guy, bet sizing looks decent, he handles his chips well but he's benefitted from a few very loose flop and turn calls and there's a chance he might be a fish

CO Hero (950) middle aged reg. Have been folding all night, trying not to get tilted as I muck J2 and 93o while watching huge pots being won by terrible play.

Button (1300). Has been transported from the good old days of 2005. Overvalues top pair and makes nonsensical bluffs. Hasn't seen a board he won't stab at and he loves bluffing when draws come in. In for maybe 3 k. Wants to see flops and will see 70+% of pots in single raised hands

BB (700) friends with straddle. Seems somewhat aware but just there for action. Is in for at least 2k. Wants to see flops, and is happy to call 30, 35 or 40 with a broad range. Gives himself the chance to get lucky post flop - chases draws, gutshots etc.

Straddle 1200. Very similar player to BB. also in for 2k at least

The hand...2/5-10. I think pre flop is standard so I'll summarise that but let me know thoughts on bet sizing if needed

utg limps 10,
cut off calls,
Hero looks down at 88 and raises to 55.
Button calls
BB calls
Straddle calls
UTG calls
HJ calls

Flop ($332) is 866. Yahtzee!

checks to hero in cut off

Hero checks,
Button bets $55
BB folds
Straddle calls
UTG calls
HJ calls
Hero calls

Turn (607) is 10d. Board is now 8c 6d 6s 10d

Checks to Hero.
Hero checks
Button checks

River (607) is 8d. Board is now 8c 6d 6s 10d 8d

Checks to Hero.....

Ugh. Bet the turn. Now that you are here, Just bet $300 and pray they have a 6 or anything that can call (or, we hope, raise).

Bruh.

Bet $150. Make it look like you're trying to buy it for cheap. Pray someone has 66, or a T, or 99, or wants to test you with AX.

If you checked the river, I'm going to track you down irl and fart in your general direction.

I like a very small bet again, to either induce or get 1-2 crying calls.

It sorta sucks because, AP you having a single 8 would make a lot of sense. So I might bet stupidly small, like $50 and just hope someone tries to take it. Obviously, if they have 66 it doesn't matter what we bet.

Before someone says it, I don't care if we lose to a SF.

A lot of close decisions this hand imo. I don't think anything is "bad". I think we have to bet something like $60 on the river and hope someone does something.

Go broke, win the big share of the bad beat jackpot.

I would bet flop, bet turn, check raise turn. Just put in small amounts so everyone can stay in.

Is a full house eligible for your local BBJP? At Parx it's quad 6's or better to qualify.

Assuming you haven't gotten to the river yet. Wait for it...

Surprised H didn't bet turn. Really surprised Stabby B didn't bet. I'm curious about the point Venice brought up: (AIUI) if they've anything that will call, they're calling 300 just as often as 150, so why not bet bigger? I dunno how elastic they'll be then though.

See if a micro-bet will annoy anyone enough to raise? Like 55, lol? I'd think it's that or jam, and hope that one of them wants to play sheriff. Despite that, like the K22 thread, nobody bluffs here.

There’s a straight flush possible that would probably get here this way. As well as lower quads.