Turning trips into a xjam bluff on the river?

Not sure I get the flop over bet

Start bluffing the mid PP that these guys love to limp. Kinda a merge play to get called by draws and fold out some better hands we have good eq against. Rake is high also, its flat drop, and absolute sizing is much more important in live poker vs relative sizing (30 into a 25 dollar pot is still just perceived as a “small” bet in this game)

Makes sense. You could have t2 or q2.

Kind of a weird spot for getting into Vs head. I can imagine such a V ruling out kk, qq and tt and then forgetting you were bb.

Otoh, it might be that he only calls with a boat just because it's a big pot and he pretty much can't have one.

Do you think all in gets significantly more folds than like 700 or 800?

Yes I think there is a noticable difference between 700-800 and allin. If I was doing this for value with a boat or quads I would be going around 600-700 targetting a flush to call. I’d rather just go for the range fold when I’m not seeing any brick walls.

A little skeptical here as I try to size my bluffs similar to my value.

Honestly, you could put any hand history on here and if the bet is 1.2k into a 300 pot, you will probably get folds.

The flop overbet is kind of interesting.
Not sure I like it with 3 players still to act, but it may well be profitable against the right field, as there's a ton of turns you can double barrell.

When a nit calls a psb on flop and turn and then bets this river, he has at least the nut flush, imo.
Moreover, you block the absolute nuts, but what are you repping otr?
I assume you don't have any boats in your range, so do you take this line with quads or a straight flush?
If V has the nut flush, he's realistically loosing to maximum two combos (22 and J9hh), and if he has a boat, he's loosing to maximum 3 (22, J9hh, AJhh).

IDK, this looks like a pure power play to me, which may work if V is nitty/scared enough, but it's totally player dependent.

Umm well my honest reaction is something like "hm yea looks like a good spot to bluff, wait WTF sizing well this can't possibly be good right?"

I mean people are inelastic with regard to sizing. Jamming for 1200 here is going to get extremely similar fold % than betting 700. But betting 700 has to work 65% of the time, and betting 1200 has to work 76% of the time.

Which it probably still will? I mean I think the raise is good. I just can't imagine that betting 1200 instead of 700 is ever correct here. Like there's just no way that you get 11% extra fold equity, imo. Both sizings will just be mentally categorized as "gigantic".

I don't think so at all tbh and it's the only ''issue'' I have with the hand. I can't comment on flop because I just don't know if this is good or bad but river sizing seems unnecessarily big.

I like the bluff as you can credibly rep every boat due to pre-flop but the sizing I just don't get. It seems way too big for no reason at all. I'd be surprised if you can make a credible case for why 700 will get called more than 1200. Both sizes are big enough where the calling range is going to be the same.

Edit.

H has obviously Q2, T2 and K2 in his range. Somehow in my previous post I overlooked that and thougth only of TT-QQ-KK as possible boats.
So yes, the check/jam on the river puts the nut flush in a tough spot, in theory.
Question is whether our V is capable of folding the nut flush.
On top of that, if V is the type of nit who limps with big pairs, he has all the bigger boats in his range.

Agree we shouldn’t run into any brick walls, if V tried to LRR KK then goes into call down mode because we overbet flop then so be it. Have our money.

So given that, I think the sizing is fine. I guess the only issue is are we ever taking this line with our value? We’d probably just lead 250-300 and expect a flush to always call.

I think we should block river for ~50 targeting Qx/KJ then if V raises, our jam is more credible as a b/3b

However I still think your line is a creative play that is probably printing.

V should be raising QQ/TT on a 2 flush 2 broadway board multiway facing an overbet as the “next to act” player. Only boat they can have on the river realistically is KK.

Grunch:

PRE - Obviously our hand is craptastic. A raise probably doesn't fold everyone out, so I guess checking our option is best.

FLOP - Unusual line to lead out into the field for over pot with just bottom pair, meh kicker, and the BDSFD.

Not sure what to make of V's snap call with players behind. Is that a draw? A2hh? Just 1P? I'd think it's not top of range, but not necessarily / always weakness. More likely it's some piece of the board with a chance to improve, but not strong enough to raise.

TURN - Unless V actually does have A2hh, he seems pretty capped. Think I might want to go even larger here, like 2x pot, to target all his QX, non-believing TX, draws, and any worse 2X.

RIVER - On paper, I understand checking when several possible draws complete, and raising over his 1/2 pot bet, which looks like thin value, or occasionally maybe a bluff. The thing I'm struggling with is what we're repping, and what we're trying to make fold.

I suppose we could have some boats when we limp in from the BB, with combos like K2, Q2 and T2, or even quads with 22. But it seems unlikely we're taking this line with a draw that gets there on the river.

If he limps pre with a lot of weak AXs combos, he could have A2hh, or any AXhh combo that he didn't think was strong enough to raise pre. Seems unlikely he's folding the nut flush, especially if he blocks our most likely boats. Maybe a straight folds to this massive raise size.

When we hold the Jh in our hand, are we thinking he gets here with a lot of 9Xhh and worse hh combos that are going to fold?

We can beat all his TP, 2P, and worse 2X. We could call and win sometimes. If we want to raise, we could go to $650 if we want to do something mergey, hoping he gets sticky with his worse value but folds a low flush or a straight.

If V is competent, he may be able to figure out that we're checking with showdown value, and then turning our hand into a bluff when he bets. Overall, I think we might be better off blocking the river for around 1/2 pot, and folding to a raise, or just check-calling anything up to 2/3 pot.

Adding to the above, the line of turning showdown value into a bluff by check-raising the river is cool, when it works.

But I think more players are starting to figure out that our thick/nutted value would barrel off, or bet river when they check back turn, not go for a check-raise in spots where they could be checking back a lot.

This line works best as a bluff when our opponents are capped and likely to be betting thin or bluffing, and we're repping a polar range with some air that blocks the nuts. It doesn't work well when our opponents are uncapped and we can beat some of their thin value.

Valid points thanks for the input. Keep in mind this is an exploit line I used because of how narrow and capped I perceived my opponents range. When this player takes this exact line I think check calling river is losing more than 90% of the time (possibly even a clean 100%). His range is basically flushes and straights period. I also think the nut flush is discounted some as well because he probably gets a bit more greedy with the river size.

Result:

I think flop is fine against players that don't understand the bet size relative to the pot.

Turn seems like you should be bigger? You pretty much always have the best hand now and are charging draws and/or some KQ/JJ type slow plays?

River I would be worried about how much AhJh/Jh9h are in range, and/or how many flushes he's bet/folding even for the giant exploit size. If you are 75%+ sure from the size it's a bad flush or straight though, then it's maybe genius.

I'll show myself out.

In my defense, I did ask if you thought he had a lot of 9Xhh in his range. Apparently you did. I may be unclear about what it means when a "turbo nit" limps UTG and gets to the river this way.

I also do wonder still if he folds to a smaller raise. The river check-raise is usually pretty nutted.

Nice hand. Well played. Thanks for posting.

Last time I checked there was only one of each card in the deck and lucky for me I had the jack of hearts in my hand. However if you happen to be playing at the commerce you never know… you might be playing for several hours with multiple 4 of hearts in the deck.

i dont think id do this on any street but this is pretty interesting hand

it feels like block / 3b the river might be better than what you did

Flop seems bad, overbetting OOP with bottom pair with a limped pot and a fairly wet flop. No point in bluffing at small pots, unless no one seems interested.

Yeh, that makes a big difference 😉

Flop overbet does sort of set up river bluff. You are representing deuces full or quad deuces Q2/T2/22. You should never have checked TT/QQ preflop.

Maybe the coach can explain flop bet. Seems like burning money. Unless you hit a miracle card, you never can continue. Continuing to bluff the wet board OOP with air is bad.

@OP - Would very much appreciate getting your response / thoughts about a few things, to help me improve how I think about the game and opponents / spots like this...

1. Do you think you lost some value with your turn sizing, given how disguised your hand strength is?

If the river is just a brick, and you check, do you think he ever stabs at it with his missed draws, or goes for thin value? Are there any hands we can target with a block bet on a brick river?

If he's not going to bluff or bet thin, or call a block bet, then does a larger turn bet make more sense than the size you chose? Was that the largest size you thought he'd call?

If that's as large as you think you can go there, is that just based on the hours you have with him, or some heuristic based on population tendencies?

2. If you believe V never bluffs or bets thin here, and always has a straight or better, but never has the nut flush or better when he takes this sizing, you're targeting his entire range to fold, right?

Do you think there's any frequency of him making a "if you got it, you got it" call here, with top of his range (like 98hh)?

Do you think he ever calls a block-bet with a worse hand, like KQ? Is there just no case to be made that we can consider bet-folding here, especially if you believe he won't punish us by raising thin?

3. What does he think your range is on the river? It looks like you're either giving up or trapping. What are you check-calling?

This goes back to my point about the river x/r with SDV being tricky. If V doesn't think we'd trap with our nutted value, I don't understand his bet-fold. If you're not checking thick value, and not calling with SDV, then your x/r has to be FOS.

If you have both traps and SDV that will x/r as a bluff, but no hands that will check-call, and he's folding to a x/r, he can just check back. It's hard to figure out what hands you'd have that would just check-call here, in this line, that he could target for value. Maybe just KQ?

what about vs minbet / b10? think he probably just has a q more often than flush and particularly straight is kind of why i want to do this