PAHWM: How to get paid with the nizzles

NB - meant to make this a PAHWM in the title but forgot - if there's a MOD who can do it?

Think you have to bet 6-ways, with only one player to act behind. Likely a card higher than an 8 will hit, possibly making someone a bigger boat. You are the preflop raiser, so should not have a 6.

bet like 1/4 pot and watch everyone call

Agreed. Maybe even a little smaller. If you've been good, maybe someone will either have a 6, or decide to rep the 6 (which normally wouldn't be a bad idea). We want gutshots to call. Sounds like some of these people might call a small bet with stuff like 55 or over cards.

1/4 or slightly less seems good.

Is there a flush draw on the board? I guess it doesn't matter too much but better chance of callers if so.

My inclination is to bet small. Someone should have an overpair to this board and I don't want to scare 99/TT away by bombing. Checking seems suboptimal since a turn could bring a high card that looks good for us and bad for callers. Also a x/r may generate folds we don't want. We can build a pot with the move that gets the least possible respect, a straight forward flop bet.

No flush draw

My guess is that anyone with an over pair would be leading here or would have raised pre.

Certainly UTG and Cut off would have opened and I think bb and straddle would have led on the flop if they’d somehow flatted 99+ pre

You said CO calls, but you're in the CO. Assume you meant HJ.

Is there a FDFD on board? It could matter, depending on the run-out.

Raise bigger pre. They don't limp in from EP to fold to a single raise. HJ didn't call looking to fold. Make it $60, $70, or even $80.

Can't imagine a better flop for us, in a single-raised pot. Immediate thought is we're pretty invulnerable, unless someone has 66.

My main concern would be wondering if anyone ever shows up with an over-pair that might wreck us by making a bigger full house. We need to know about UTG & HJ opening ranges, and our other opponents' 3B ranges.

Doubtful UTG or HJ is limping in with TT+. Not sure if either would limp with 99. Someone else in the field may flat call our raise with 99-JJ. I'd think a 9, T and J are the only potential "scare" cards for our hand, and I'd somewhat discount players behind showing up with JJ.

Otherwise, I don't think we need to worry about any run-out, unless a 9 / T / J comes and someone wants to start shoveling money in. I might be especially wary of a 9 coming out, thinking that 99 might get limped from up front, and may not get 3B by the players behind.

I'd think we're mostly targeting all the PP's from 22 to 77, any 6x, any draws, and any un-paired over-cards that want to float to spike top pair.

If we've mostly been folding, and likely have a nitty image compared to the rest of the table, I might just check this back, given the low SPR. It shouldn't be hard to get the rest of our stack in if anyone connects with the turn in any way.

If we want to bet, I'd bet small, like $50-$60.

I wouldn't expect BB or straddle to show up with QQ+ after flatting pre. I wouldn't expect them to donk into five opponents with 99-JJ.

Not really expecting anyone to stab at this without the case 8 or a 6, or maybe something stupid, like 97 or 75 for an OESD.

Like I said in my post above, 99 is the only over-pair I'd expect to see here with any real frequency, from any / all players. If a 9, T or J come out, and someone wants to shovel it in, their position probably matters.

UTG - probably not limping in with TT+. Maybe limps with 99? Only you would know.

HJ - probably not over-limping JJ+. Maybe not even TT. Maybe over-limps 99?

BTN / BB / straddle - probably not flatting JJ+. Maybe they flat TT and 99.

If you'd been mixing it up more prior to this hand, I'd think we could bet 1/4 or even 1/3 pot and expect action. But since you've been card-dead and folding, I wouldn't go over 20% pot.

If we bet and get any callers, I think we can bet small again on the turn. If we bet small twice and no one raises, I might bet 1/2 pot on river.

The thing about this hand is that it's going to be hard for us to get 66 to announce itself as long as we're betting, and we may not find out until they donk huge or we get check-raised on the river.

Just thinking about this more. I don't know if any of our opponents deserve this much credit, but...

If I had 66 here, I probably would have donked on the flop. If I didn't donk on the flop, and the PFR bet small, I wouldn't check raise, but I might come out and donk on almost any turn card that may have conceivably hit me or anyone else, to rep whatever, and induce a raise, or just build the pot.

Be wary if someone wakes up and starts betting future streets, especially if they're doing it on meaningless cards, like A, K, Q, 3, or 2. Don't fall for the trap of thinking they picked up a flush draw or made a lower boat, or turned top pair. Just call if someone starts betting into you.

idk man. I've been card dead for ages in great games, and if I eventually have a hand with ~100 straddles; raise to 5.5x; get 5 callers; and then flop top boat ... I think I'm going broke all the time vs. quads, without the most amazings reads in the history of ever.

I might just call turn anyway, if someone donked, but it's almost certainly as a better way to still get all the money in on the river.

As to the hand, I probably mostly throw out the same bet as preflop, praying someone has a 6 ... but going a little bigger to 65-75 might well be better. If I knew someone had a 6 then cosplaying tight old guy with scared AA and betting like 200+ might be slightly better?

I would try to gii even with action when a higher card hits. Hero raised limper from CO and it is a 5/10 game, so there really shouldn't be that many higher pps. You kind of want a higher card so someone with overcards will make a pair.

Per the reads (and this is deeper than I play), the BU is a stab-monkey. So, even though there's only one player left to act, I'm kind of tempted to let them stab, let the huge crowd then decide to call/raise/w-e, then act. It's that or the usual, "My OP feels safe on a low paired-board," modest b25-b33 cbet. Most of the described should call that, and H might end up with a bigger turn pot versus letting Stabby set the price at potentially 200-300.

The counter is that it quickly becomes apparent that we have trips or better when we want to shovel it in, whereas all our over-pairs may play more cautiously, this multi-way.

The reads matter less than the action. If someone wants to play for stacks here, when it should be obvious we have trips or better, I'd want to know my opponent is capable of making tremendous mistakes with worse value.

I mean...we can say if we get coolered, it's just a cooler, but sometimes it's obvious when it's happening.

Check -- you have the BTN behind you who bets w/ pairs and likes to make nonsensical bluffs. This is the perfect board for someone like that. Let him bet. If he doesn't, you can get some $$$ in on the turn.

Yes, I think BB and straddle can have 99, perhaps also button who isn't very aggro pre. I think I hear from 1010 pre flop and almost certainly on the flop

Yes, I'm going broke vs 66 and 99 too. I think at this table, many of these guys will think a 9 brings them the nuts if they're holding 75. The only card I really don't want to see is a 6

yes, apologies. I'm CO - HJ calls

yes...certainly as played, I think an additional $10-15 gets called in more spots pre

yes this was my POV

How to get paid with the nizzles
2/5-10 (1000).

a fantastic table at which Hero has been epicly card dead. 1 reg, no pro players, some very bad recs and a lot of money has been moving.

mistakes were made in this hand.

utg (1500) is an ok rec. He's just moved back to my town after a decade away. I recognise him from 10 years ago and he's been snug enough to this point. Straightforward pre flop....limps when he wants to see a flop with speculative hands, opens/raises when strong. Seems to know what he's doing and has bet/folded a couple of times

HJ (2000) also seems ok He's run incredibly well in the 2 hours I've played with him, going form 800 to 2k and has hit flops and rivers very hard and taken big pots off Button. Looks reggy - is young Asian guy, bet sizing looks decent, he handles his chips well but he's benefitted from a few very loose flop and turn calls and there's a chance he might be a fish

CO Hero (950) middle aged reg. Have been folding all night, trying not to get tilted as I muck J2 and 93o while watching huge pots being won by terrible play.

Button (1300). Has been transported from the good old days of 2005. Overvalues top pair and makes nonsensical bluffs. Hasn't seen a board he won't stab at and he loves bluffing when draws come in. In for maybe 3 k. Wants to see flops and will see 70+% of pots in single raised hands

BB (700) friends with straddle. Seems somewhat aware but just there for action. Is in for at least 2k. Wants to see flops, and is happy to call 30, 35 or 40 with a broad range. Gives himself the chance to get lucky post flop - chases draws, gutshots etc.

Straddle 1200. Very similar player to BB. also in for 2k at least

The hand...2/5-10. I think pre flop is standard so I'll summarise that but let me know thoughts on bet sizing if needed

utg limps 10,
cut off calls,
Hero looks down at 88 and raises to 55.
Button calls
BB calls
Straddle calls
UTG calls
HJ calls

Flop ($332) is 866. Yahtzee!

checks to hero in cut off

Hero checks,
Button bets $55
BB folds
Straddle calls
UTG calls
HJ calls

Hero?

Title changed.

You have a SPR of 3, so I'm ok with checking the flop. You've got time still to get stacks in. I'd call the flop and hope that an ace comes on the turn.

You got promoted!

Pretty confident flop check is bad.

To be semi results oriented, look at all these calls you miss if the guy checks. How often does he bet here? 50% is pretty insane.

Now you must raise. Think of the action next street if you call. It's not that often someone will lead. We gonna bank on checking to this guy and having him bet again? If we lead it looks strong anyway.

I'd do a min ish raise here and get all these guys to call. Anything you do looks strong but that could be viewed as seeing where you are at. It sounds like a lot of these people are just incapable of folding getting 12-1 or whatever.