Flopping the nut flush multiway as the PFR on the B facing donk-call. Slow play for how long?
2/3/5 NL 8-handed
V1 - 30's white guy with an accent, new to this casino I think. I've been playing with him for a couple
But people don't fold small flushes here any more than Banana was folding a boat. Nor is anyone folding a 33 OTT. But they might fold a set OTR if a fourth spade comes. They might fold 2P if the fourth spade comes, they definitely will fold Ksx if the fourth spade doesn't come. They'll call with 98ss all day long on the turn but might find a fold when the person last to act jam
I don't think so, I think the Turn jam looks much stronger and is much more likely to get fold than a River jam. (Idk if you should jam it as a bluff. Depends on players. But maybe. Probably? Depends on opponent. Doesn't really matter though.)
Either Vs are calling with their value frequently and we can value bet all in, or they are folding value frequently and its a spot to bluff. There is no spot that is ever both, the two are mutually exclusive. If you think a jam is getting too many folds, then this is a spot you should be bluffing.
No, that does not logically follow. It could be that turn is slightly underfolded and River strongly underfolded, in which case you should not bluff Turn, but you still shouldn't jam turn for value because it's better to jam River for value. (Idk if Turn is under- or overfolded like I said, seems close, just responding to the theoretical point.)
I don't understand how a shove on the river looks weaker.
We are looking at getting value from: sets, 2P, smaller flushes and maybe a really poorly played KsX.
Can we agree that sets, 2p and flushes are all less likely to call if a 4th spade comes? So we need Vs to call on blank rivers about 20% more frequently than they would call turn.
From Vs perspective, what do we have? If we jam turn, we could have sets, 2p, small flushes or naked As. Are we jamming river with those hands? All of them have SDV and aren't likely to get a fold from better. AsX is probably the best candidate of those to turn into a bluff, but it's also TP so are we really trying to bluff two Vs with it?
A river jam is super polarized. We either have the nuts, or we have nothing and we just called, called, jammed with nothing?
A turn bet, we have 2p, sets, smaller flushes because those hands benefit from denying equity from AsX, we could be jamming with the As thinking we have fold equity (bad play IMO, but we're arguing small flushes and 2p might fold turn).
So I don't understand how our turn bet is called significantly less than our river bet, when our range that can jam turn is a lot weaker?
Progression of the hand:
H calls the turn bet.
River: Qs Ts 3s 8c 3c
V1 checks, has 865 behind
V2 has 1165 behind, and bets $550.
H has 500 left, call or fold???
I’m calling.
Unlikely V2 having us beat because he’d have had to:
- over limp QQ/TT pre
- Call flop with 88 next to act with the Pfr behind him
- have the only combo of 33
- limp and then call a raise pre with Q3/T3
If somehow one of the above is true, enjoy my money.
Progression of the hand:
H calls the turn bet.
River: Qs Ts 3s 8c 3c
V1 checks, has 865 behind
V2 has 1165 behind, and bets $550.
H has 500 left, call or fold???
As far as the board pairing, its the best pair to hit the board. I think we have to pay it off. AP, V2 has no reason to believe we have a strong hand at all since we played passively and underrepped our hand. I think we lose a lot, but we don't have to win often.
Can we agree that sets, 2p and flushes are all less likely to call if a 4th spade comes So we need Vs to call on blank rivers about 20% more frequently than they would call turn.
yes
From Vs perspective, what do we have If we jam turn, we could have sets, 2p, small flushes or naked As. Are we jamming river with those hands All of them have SDV and aren't likely to get a fold from better. AsX is probably the best candidate of those to turn into a bluff, but it's also TP so are we really trying to bluff two Vs with it A river jam is super polarized. We either
You're applying logic and realistic bluffing ranges of thinking players to this spot. But my reasoning is much dumber than that, it's just a population read. I'm not saying this is justified, I'm just saying that as a matter of how 2/5 or 2/3/5 or 5/5 live players actually play, raises on the Turn are incredibly strong, especially raises vs. hands that look like flushes, and most people get this instinctively. When was the last time you've seen a player at these stakes raise-jam the Turn with a non-premium hand? It virtually never happens.
The same is not true for River jams. In general open bets, even jams, aren't as strong as raises.
And also your reply neglects the fact that Villain could bet the River for us with a flush -- or even with a set -- and then they're very unlikely to fold just because so much money has already gone in.
That said, the action killer argument is real, and given villain descriptions, they might just call so much on the Turn that even if they call 100% on clean River runouts, the % of action killers drags it down too much. And I do have a documented bias toward slow playing. So maybe turn jam is better, idk. But I'm pretty confident that check-jam on the River gets called wider by most people than bet-raise-jam on the Turn.
Progression of the hand:
H calls the turn bet.
River: Qs Ts 3s 8c 3c
V1 checks, has 865 behind
V2 has 1165 behind, and bets $550.
H has 500 left, call or fold???
I had to go back and re-read the reads and pre-flop action in the OP.
So...they both limped. Seems really unlikely anyone has a boat here, as played, unless V2 shows up with 8s8x.
We can beat all the worse flushes, we can beat all the straights, we can beat 2P, and we beat all his weirdo bluffs. If action checked to us, I'd want to jam for value. The only reasons not to are A) V2 is pretty much unknown, and B) he could conceivably have a boat with 88.
I don't think we can ever fold, getting over 3:1 and holding the flopped nut flush. If he's got a boat, he's just getting my money.
Also - Yami makes a good point, in that we're fairly under-repped here. Maybe not entirely under-repped, because we did raise pre. But we're on the BTN, where we could have been squeezing wide, and this is how we'd probably play all our low flushes, sets, 2P, etc. We probably wouldn't have any raises at all on the flop, and maybe not even on the turn, if we're trying to be balanced.
Actually I think I'm ready to change my mind on this and say jamming Turn is the play. SPR is already small and people who lead almost pot generally don't want to fold, so even though the Turn jam looks super strong, the risk is probably worth avoiding an action killer on the River. Like I said, I tend to be biased toward slowplaying. Pretty sure if I played the hand, I also wouldn't have found the Turn jam.
I don't like seeing the board pair and have a gross decision to make. It seems plausible that one player has a flush and the other has a set.
But since flush+ set is not the only combination of two hands we face, in the situation on the turn with 1/2 pot back, it feels like we are committed to put the rest of the money in on the river.
So I'd rather give the other players an opportunity to pay full price for a reward they will collect either way if their card comes in.
Results:
Spoiler
H calls. V1 open folds Js 8s. V2 shows Tc 3c.
This does show 2 villains calling with worse to my button raise, so I think preflop raising is better than limping with A4s on the button.
Results:
Spoiler
H calls. V1 open folds Js 8s. V2 shows Tc 3c.
This does show 2 villains calling with worse to my button raise, so I think preflop raising is better than limping with A4s on the button.
And people say poker is dying!
I'd have lost the same amount; it just would have been piled in sooner.
Results:
Spoiler
H calls. V1 open folds Js 8s. V2 shows Tc 3c.
This does show 2 villains calling with worse to my button raise, so I think preflop raising is better than limping with A4s on the button.
In a million bazillion years, I wouldn't expect to see T3.
Shake it off, cowboy. Get back on the horse.
Thanks. I've been getting smacked around lately. Some variance, but some is of my own doing. Gotta figure it out.
Not trying to be reverse-results-oriented, but even if you jammed turn, I think he calls with T3.
Not to say jamming turn would be bad for that reason. It would actually be good for that reason. But you'd still lose. That's just the run-out, nothing to do with your decision.
Likewise, if the river doesn't boat him up, I think we still get it in. And we win.
You got unlucky. The only debate worth having is the turn decision. And with 0.5 SPR, I don't think we're losing or gaining a ton of EV either way.
Take solace in the knowledge you gave us a good discussion, and ultimately a good laugh. And for that, we thank you.
